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Ricky,
The company newsflow and evidence is there for all to see and has been as predicted.
Shouldn't you be questioning why some rampers have already been proven to be completely wrong? Why not ask them to accept they were wrong?
There could be and likely to be more talking up of the company, as the CEO's huge options exercisable date gets closer, as per my assertions.
The newflow backs my assertions to date.
Fy results:
Nothing which wasn't expected, no rise post results.
Chairman dumped majority of his holding after shares talked up and before fy results.
Revenue/Order book growth rate has slowed significantly.
etc
etc
SZ,
"Same as last year really not a good move by the board."
As predicted, the nominal dividend hasn't made any difference.
I'm sure there'll be more hindsight opinions coming along agreeing with the bear points I've raised. My posts have been consistent.
Any more plausible throwaway comments or stories from the regulars here to pull the wool over PIs?
There should be a TU within days.
My thoughts.
given the sp is below nominal value, I fully expect some CA, which could include capital reorganisation or going private.
Positives:
Both Labour and Tories have endorsed the use of private companies to bring down waiting lists.
TLY provides it's services in all 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland.
NHS have endorsed TLY services, which is evidenced by the national contracts awarded to them.
Over £55m revenues in H1, so expecting around £100m for fy.
c40% held by institutions and some increased. So TLY management are backed by significant holdings by IIs.
New Chairman was co-founder of Liberum and has been buying shares. He's obviously got contacts with IIs, who would back the company.
Consultants strike has ended
Wage inflation should have reduced considerably
Mcap only £9m.
Negatives:
Junior Doctors strike is still ongoing. That is the biggest problem facing the NHS.
Sp is below nominal value. Obviously the sp was manipulated lower by certain people to get to the position where TLY are forced to act.
Therefore, I expect CA, which could be capital restructuring as they did in 2019 or going private.
I, for one, have no problem if they go private because clearly there's huge demand for their services.
The company is clearly trusted by the NHS as evidenced by the contracts, especially the national contract awarded a few months ago.
If the company goes private and then they can concentrate or building the business without the distraction of muppets manipulating the sp. Then they can come back in 2-3 years time, multiple of today's low valuation. That would be a great bonus for retirement planning.
Hallsworthy,
"The throwaway pollution comment was clearly a random example which you've strangely latched on to, but the point is you have someone in a bed in quarantine you can watch what they eat, drink, breathe, how long the sleep for, how often and how long they sit on the toilet"
The comment was made by dustofnations, whilst he was also commenting re Mo's comments. DoN was also praising Mo for replying to his question.
How do you know DustofNations made a throwaway comment? Is he a mate?
It raises the question as to how many other comments are also throwaway comments?
My comments, bear points/red flags have been consistent. The company newsflow backs up what I've been saying.
As expected, results published and no surge.
The bear points/red flags haven't been countered or proved wrong.
Look at the current sp. The Chairman dumped majority of his holding at 28p. As Chairman/founder, he knows the business better than anyone else.
Turnkey,
My assertion is that revenues/order book growth has slowed significantly. The figures from the company back up my assertion.
The Chairman would have known the figures. I think that's why he dumped majority of his holding 2 months ago, well before the fy results.
Dustofnations,
Please answer the replies to your original assertions:
You claimed:
"I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar"
My reply:
Really? Gov has huge debt and needs to raise money. There's also a GE this year, which raises uncertainty about direction of govn policy going forward.
Please explain why you happy the company is investing shareholder's money in high risk govn gilts, when there's huge uncertainty over govn debt and there's a GE this year?
Your comment re controlled environment:
"In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!"
They don't keep 'volunteers' in quarantine for life? It's usually a few days, I'm glad you agree on that. The volunteers, who can be in desperate need of money, eg students, won't keep a running day by day log of whether they breathed in polluted air!!!
HVO's facility is in London. If volunteers go down to London to the facility then they will obviously be breathing in polluted air every day.
How will they monitor whether the volunteer breathed in some polluted air etc, given London is a polluted city?
Can you point to where the company states that they monitor "whether the volunteer has breathed in some polluted air" and how they distinguish between polluted and unpolluted air?
The bear points I've mentioned still valid then.
Dustofnations
"In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!"
They don't keep 'volunteers' in quarantine for life? It's usually a few days. The volunteers, who can be in desperate need of money, eg students, won't keep a running day by day log of whether they breathed in polluted air!!!
My assertion that the business model is questionable remains.
"I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar"
Really? Gov has huge debt and needs to raise money. There's also a GE this year, which raises uncertainty about direction of govn policy going forward.
Lots of local councils are going technically bankrupt.
Gov gilts are high risk. You can easily get around 4-5% in safer accounts.
Skywalker,
"buoyed by organic growth of 8-10 per cent per year and the contribution from synergistic bolt-on acquisitions."
There you go, backs up exactly as I was saying, revenue growth has slowed significantly.
Where's the significant revenue growth?
The suggestion has been that the company is growing fast, booming etc whereas the figures, revenues and order book, don't back it up.
These are their own figures:
H1 2022
Order: £70m
fy 2022
rev £50.7m
Order £76m
H1 2023
Order: £78m
fy 2023
rev: £56m
Order: £80m
fy 2024
Expected Rev £62m
Both Labour and Tories are committed to using more private companies to help reduce waiting lists.
Labour's Wes Streeting attacks 'middle class Lefties' opposed to his plan to use private healthcare to help the NHS recover if Labour wins the election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13283879/Labours-Wes-Streeting-attacks-middle-class-lefties-opposed-plan-use-private-healthcare-help-NHS-recover-Labour-wins-election.html
MO has huge > 7m options, awarded last year, back dated to 2022 and excersiable from few months time.
He has the incentive to talk up the company.
Look at the conditions attached to his huge 7m options:
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the dateMr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.
The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
Don't forget the investor meet presentation at 6pm.
I'm expecting MO will be bullish with vast majority of the presentation similar to the last one.
Let's see if he has anything new to add. Any contracts, given we're already in Q2?
They don't mention cash as of 31st March, ie Q1 end.
Given they do mention other post period highlights, I think they should have mentioned the current cash position. Now the new facility is up and running then it would have been useful to see if cash has declined.
All they say is
"Strong cash position underpins the Group's M&A strategy"
DT's buy the other day was well timed. He obviously wants to delist.
If this gets to the vote then why would DT want to remain listed?
It'll be reputational damage to him if he doesn't go through with a delisting.
Unless of course, DT, put the statement out to entice bidders. Then he would be in profit with his recent buying.
Id10t
"Thanks for the reply, but they have floated the idea of a purchase for several years now."
Exactly. They also used to talk about DiM suggesting it to be a hidden gem. What's happened to that?
Questionable history.
Sam4224,
"Really thought this would rise after such excellent results."
Not really. It depends on expectations.
Shares would have gone higher if they beat expectations. Likewise if the market was expecting poor results then good results would result in a higher price.
Majority of what's in the rns was already expected.
As per my previous post, the figures were known. The outlook was also known and was going to be bullish.
All known and predicted.
Several hindsight posters out this morning.
BodRuncie,
"But the biggest indicator of the company's value and future prospects is a section without bottom-line numbers attached to it. "
The Chairman/Founder would know all that.
Yet he dumped majority of his holding at 28p in a discounted secondary placing.
Look at the current sp... as predicted.