Member Info for stt1

The interesting thing is HVO crashed 50% after issuing a profit warning. Their newsflow has vindicated the multiple red flags I had been posting.

It's interesting that the following posters, who were ramping HVO and deramping TLY, have gone silent on HVO. No analysis, comments on the profit warning there!!

Hallsworthy:

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/hallsworthy/

Fathertedcrilly:

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/fathertedcrilly/

BillB:

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/billb/

1gw_:

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/1gw_/

etc

Coincidence?

Dingo

"The current CEO purchased recently, out of his own funds"

Small compared to the huge options he has.

Both directors who bought recently have huge options, so there's an incentive to try and get the sp higher.

CEO, Mo Khan, was awarded over 7m options, back dated a year and exercisable from Feb this year:

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw

CFO, Mr Pinkerton was awarded over 2m options, last year:

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/r7l9nzx

"And equally, the loss of a £10m contract on year doesnt mean they wont be able to replace it next year. "

Exactly, their revenues aren't repeated. And vice versa. Because they won contracts before doesn't mean they will do so every year. Given they mention the poor market environment, it's likely to take some time for it to improve, especially with Trump's attitude of US companies 1st.

"but one thing for sure, year on year the company wins contract after contract to grow. The loss of one or two contracts does not mean that they are dead in the water. "

Where's all the contract wins. Usually by this time of year, they've already won contracts and talk about visibility into the following year but they're talking about significantly lower revenues and profit warnings.

Carrot,

Re: CF, the now ex-chairman.

"so why bring him up again and again?"

Because I believe the chairman knows more about the company than any PI/II. Don't you?

CF dumped his entire holding in 2 tranches last year, Feb 2024 & July 2024, at 28p/29p. As has been shown, the sp was at near highs on both times. Both times the company was being talked up.

Do you think the chairman wasn't aware of the lack of growth rate slowing last year?

CF resigned only 2 months ago. The profit warning was only last week.

Do you think he wasn't aware of lack of contracts when he decided to leave?

Really? You really are naive?

I believe the chairman dumping his entire holding was a huge red flag.

It's fine if you disagree but the profit warning, the company newsflow vindicates my opinions over of red flags.

They announced they 3 contracts were cancelled. I find it hard to believe all 3 were cancelled at the same time, so why didn't they say when they were cancelled?

They may announce contracts but given their reasoning behind the cancellations, the environment is likely to stay as is for months if not years.

They pay out c£40m on direct project/admin costs. Plus lease on top. There are some projects ongoing so some costs involved. Admin & lease costs for the new bigger facility will still have to be paid.

They had c£43m as of end of Dec 2024 and annual costs(direct project/admin) of c£40m.

With contracts soon, I expect they'll need a placing over the coming months.

Mcap c£80m without contracts for months, multiple cancelled contracts and on hope of gaining some on a change of environment in the USA!!!

The chairman resigned recently. He dumped his entire holding last year at 28p/29p.

I believe the chairman knows more about the company than any PI/II.

I expect they'll need a placing over the coming months...

Cash as of 31st Dec

£44m

Annual 'direct project and admin costs'

c£49m

- Some projects currently ongoing, so there will be project costs and admin.

Plus ongoing lease liabilities

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xqn11lx

There's a lack of contract wins this year, yet there are cancelled contracts.

They have to win contracts very soon otherwise they will run out of cash in the coming months and therefore, will need a placing, probably a discounted one.

They can't shut down the facility as it's largely paid for by clients.

I think there's more skeletons in the cupboard here.

Zebbo,

No I didn't get burnt.

Read my posting history. I'm posting company newsflow and opinions on them.

The chairman left recently. He dumped his entire 47m shares at 28p/29p. I said the company was being talked up so they could sell and the chairman did so.

I see that as a huge red flag.

2024

Feb : https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xe1g9jw

July 17th : Positive sounding TU

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/ryoe29x

Yet just 4 working days later, the chairman dumped his entire remaining holding

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xpdodqx

The accounts showed revenue growth rate was slowing significantly over past 3 years. That was a red flag.

CEO Options:

Huge number of options awarded to the CEO, crucially back dated a year and starting to exercise Feb this year (2025).

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw

Without contracts, the costs of the lease on the new facility as well as admin costs will significantly reduce the cash, in which case there'll need a placing..

The buys are tiny compared to the huge options the CEO he was awarded and which started to exercise only 4 months ago. Obviously he wants the sp to rise and so he can exercise more options.

The buys are tiny compared to the 47m that CF, as chairman, dumped last year at 28p/29p, whilst the company was being talked up!!! CF resigned recently.

I believe the chairman(now ex-) knows more about the company than any PI/II.

I think they are talking it up for a placing.

No contracts, huge ongoing costs.

Marc

"Your latest one effectively asking why the Chinese don't create CROs to service American pharamas and all their intellectual property in trial vaccines."

Misquoting me again!!!

Why twist the points?

Look at the accounts.

c£40m (project and admin) costs pa.

A significant portion of their cash(£44m as of 31st Dec) would have been used over the past 6 months on current projects and admin.

Yet over the same period they haven't won any contracts.

So cash as of H1 2025, 30th June is likely to be significantly lower than £44m, I'd guess more like £30m.

Take away the admin costs over the next 6 months. Without any new contracts they could run out during the coming months.

Marc

"Have to look past all this noise and see the world leader in Human Challenge Trials held back only short term by the nonsense trump has brought with him."

Trump is in charge for further 3.5 years.

Trump dithers. One minute tariffs are off, the next there's a resolution. One minute Putin is his friend, the next he's not.

Trump believes USA 1st, made in USA, not UK companies benefiting from US company's money.

Why would Trump administration not demand US companies setup facilities in USA?

One of my other red flags was, if there is huge demand then what's stopping Chinese/Indian companies setting up facilities to do the same. The fact they haven't says a lot. Friday's profit warning shows that assertion to be true.

I've previously suggested that clients largely paying for the new facility is a red flag. The profit warning backs up my assertion as to why the company this was the case. The company needed to keep hold of as much cash as possible due to revenue growth slowing down over the past 2-3years.

The problem they now face will depend on the terms agreed for clients to pay for the new facility.

Do HVO have to pay back any cash to those same clients, if they can't provide an ongoing facility?

If the clients who cancelled are the same who largely paid for the facility then what was the reason for cancellation? If it was HVO's side then those same clients claim money back?

Having clients largely paying for a new facility is a red flag, especially when the company was supposed to have so much cash.

I think there's more to this than meets the eye.

I expect there'll be a placing within the next 12 months.

Ironman

"he is by trying to discredit other companies because he thinks he knows it all. Of course it's quite clear that really he knows absolutely squat about investing "

You mean like on HVO!!! I posted company newsflow and warned of several red flags.

On Friday, HVO became the latest company, which I've posted red flags, which has crashed 50% following a profit warning. They are now down 80% since their peak.

The company newsflow has been as expected.

This follows Byot, Trmr, Rthm, Nano etc etc

My posting history is there for all to see...

The evidence.

HVO:

I posted the company newsflow and opinions based on them, warning of multiple red flags. Posters like Hallsworthy, 1gw_, FatherTedcrilly, BillB etc etc were all ramping HVO and deramping TLY.

HVO crashed following contract cancellations, significant revenue drop, moved from profit to loss etc

Sound familiar to the comments made by HVO rampers, who were deramping TLY!!

Yet they've gone quiet on HVO!!!

Don't take my word for it, check their posting history.

More red flags!! 10p is too optimistic...

I've posted company newsflow and opinions based on those.

The company was being talked up, the chairman dumped his entire holding last year, revenue growth rate had slowed.

Read the rns. They've had 3 cancellations, lack of contracts, lower revenues, loss making.

As per my assertion, I believe they have a questionable business model.

My posting history:

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/

Nathan

"You clearly don’t understand hvivo and what it does and the growth that will happen over the next 5 years "

"Will". You mean Might.

What about the huge growth that was supposed to have happened over the past 3-4 years. Whatever happened to the £100m that was supposed to be by 2028? I started commenting on HVO, as Orph, back in 2021, when the sp was around 26p/27p and the newsflow since has been as I expected!!

As I posted, company newsflow showed revenue growth rate has been slowing for years.

Do you not think CF dumping his entire holding was a huge red flag? He only recently resigned?

The CEO was granted huge options, back dated a year and starting to exercise Feb 2025 and he started to exercise them before today's profit warning.

Coincidence?

TheSoundMan,

Well whatever happened to your vast experience with Letter of Intent, suggesting to readers that there will be a contract within days!!!

As I repeatedly said a LoI means nothing.

You were pulling the wool over reader's eyes.

Well, nothing to say further about your post from 4 months ago, suggesting the Letter of Intent will quickly lead to contract as the terms would have already been agreed?

If you can't back up your post then it can be assumed you were pulling the wool over reader's eyes, can't it?

Your post 27th Jan 2025:

TheSoundMan. Premium Member

Posts: 806

Price: 21.50

No Opinion

RE: Letter of Intent - EXPECTS27 Jan 2025 16:39

"Wrong.

Having worked with LOIs for many years I can tell you that they tie the parties to the terms agreed whilst a contract is drawn up and then signed.

The critical terms, for example the contract sum, duration, damages clauses, etc would already be agreed whether it be by negotiation or tender. You don't have 'open' LOIs"

Nathan

"All the major healthcare/biotech new drug investment funds/trusts are way down on highs and funding for new drugs and trials are being hit left right and centre."

Hindsight comments.

Why didn't you mention that beforehand? I've been warning of the red flags for ages and they have come true.

Profit warning, shares down c70%+ from when CF, the ex-chairman dumped his entire holding.

As per my assertion, CF (when he was chairman) knows the company better than any PI or II. He dumped his entire holding last year, Feb and July.

As posted, that was the huge red flag.

Father

"They might not last a month"

It's been a month since they published their initial rns re strategic review.

End of month payroll this week.

If they didn't have funds to pay May's payroll then they would have gone into administration. The fact is they haven't.

Btw, I noticed you and Hallsworthy etc have been ramping HVO for months. Whereas I've been posting company/sector newsflow and red flags based on company/sector newsflow.

The sp crashed 50% this morning with newsflow as expected. Profit warning, contracts cancelled etc

Zebbo

"Anticipates further contract wins during the year, in advanced talks for possible contracts commencing in late 2025, which could provide "significant revenue"."

Anticipates, possible, could... they overplaying the potential as they have done so for years.

There you go.

Exactly as predicted. I posted company newsflow and opinions based on the newsflow and my experience.

The company was talked up, so they could sell.

CF, ex Chairman dumped his entire holding in 2 tranches, which was a huge red flag. The chairman DID sell as predicted.

Other red flags including:

CEO was awarded huge options, back dated a year and started to exercise from Feb this year, which he did.

New facility largely paid for by clients, even though the company had huge cash balance.

Company figures showed revenue growth had slowed significantly.

Questionable business model

etc

Although my 10p target was too optimistic.