2 off 2:
Over £92m of new contracts
Over the last few months or so the group has been awarded several contracts and extensions worth in excess of £92m, showing that it does have an excellent relationship with various parts of the NHS.
Those increasing waiting lists within the NHS will, no doubt, offer tremendous scope for Totally as a group, especially over the next couple of years as ‘catch-up’ is played out.
Latest Trading Update
In the Trading Update for the year to end March 2021, published on 13 April, the group stated that:
“The resilient and improved trading performance across the group is due to multiple factors but primarily as a result of the company being able to respond proactively and quickly to the numerous demands for its healthcare services during the global Covid-19 pandemic, through which the company has assisted the NHS in providing frontline care across the UK.”
“Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, the year to 31 March 2021 was undoubtedly one of the most challenging periods of time for the company. Through effective management, however, the emergency preparedness and response was quickly and efficiently executed.”
“All operations of the group were impacted with some services, particularly face-to-face, understandably paused. However, with the increased demand for urgent healthcare support, the group was well placed to respond quickly through, among others, the delivery of Covid-19 Management Services, National Clinical Assessment Services and the ramping up of 111 capacity.”
New market guidelines in eleven days
Currently the group has suspended market forecasts which, considering the stop/go policies of late, must have been a very sensible move.
The finals, which will be announced on Tuesday 6 July, will be the occasion for the group to reintroduce its market guidelines.
But what must be noted out of the latest Trading Update, is the fact that at the end of March this year the group had no debt, with all deferred HMRC payments having been paid in full.
It was also boasting a very healthy £14.8m net cash position compared to its market capitalisation of only £71m.
‘Buy to build’ strategy continues
Remember it is part of Totally’s growth strategy to make earnings accretive acquisitions as it strives to build up its overall grouping.
“Totally is committed to pursuing a progressive buy-and-build consolidation strategy within the fragmented healthcare market and looks to capitalise on the attractive opportunities that its disruptive service model offers, to generate value to shareholders.”
Bob is no ‘spoofer’
Whatever you do – do not underestimate the ability of Chairman Bob Holt – he always under plays and over delivers.
But first things first – let us see what actually occurred business-wise in the year to end March 2021 – we already know that it saw record EBITDA being achieved.
We will know what the score was in just eleven days.
Totally – the excellent trading continues as a trusted partner with the NHS
By Mark Watson-Mitchell 25 June 2021
1 off 2 - The divisions:
It can not have been easy to have been doing business with the NHS over the last fifteen months or so.
With the focus on hospitals being ready to cope with and then care for an ongoing rush of Covid-19 patients, many operations and other procedures went on the back burner.
Doctor’s surgeries were closed, with their services being curtailed or abbreviated while everyone needed to be masked up, to self-isolate, and the like.
Chop and change
So just imagine how difficult it must have been for the management of the Totally (LON:TLY) group. They suddenly had to chop and change their service roles in order to make themselves even more useful to the NHS.
Totally is a leading healthcare service provider in the UK and Ireland. It works in partnership with the NHS and other providers to deliver those services through its divisions of Urgent Care, Planned Care and Insourcing.
Its Urgent Care services include providing cover for NHS 111, GP Out of Hours, Clinical Assessment, Integrated Urgent Care, Urgent Treatment Centres, Urgent Care Centres and Walk-In Clinics.
Those services are provided under contract with local Care Commissioning Groups and can be awarded for up to five years, with an option to extend by a further two years.
The Planned Care side provides dermatology outpatient services, physiotherapy, podiatry, referral management services and clinical health coaching.
Those services are delivered to NHS prisons, police, fire services, the insurance industry and private clients.
Only set up in 2019 the Insourcing division is involved where hospitals subcontract medical services and procedures to providers who use the host hospitals’ premises and equipment for service delivery.
It also provides bespoke insourcing solutions across multiple specialities to trusts and hospitals in the UK and Ireland, reducing waiting lists for minor operations by utilising their spare capacity outside of normal working hours and at weekends.
Going forward Insourcing could well show a very exciting future growth pattern.
Read the article, they mention Boots, as they have done in previous articles.
Look at the online sales of the Boots product.
It currently shows < 10 sold in last 24 hrs.
Same with the 200ml bottle.
11 sold in last 24 hrs.
These were around 100 bottles over 24 hrs in the early days of the Pandemic.
17th Aug 2020:
Midas recommended Byotrol, referencing Boots brand as one of the reasons to buy:
17th Aug to 24th Aug:
within days, the sp shot up from 6.3p to around 10p.
However, the following week, the sp started falling back again.
23rd Sept - fy2020
the sp was drifting back down towards 6p.
7th Dec - just 2.5 months after fy results, they published the interims, H1 2021.
The sp on 7th Dec was around 6.5p-7p and drifted lower.
Given the sp is back to where it was pre-the Aug Midas recommendation based on events and so made no difference last time, why should it make difference this time?
Check the interims and sp history yourselves.
Read through the previous posts on here and it's clear some PIs weren't happy with the performance, having bought in on the Midas tip.
According to this SKY article, UK dropped WHO guidance before the 1st lockdown.
Coronavirus: UK dropped WHO guidance on alcohol-based hand sanitisers before lockdown
Yet, H1 global consumer sales increased Consumer sales by only £590k to around £1m, during the busy pandemic period, H1 Apr-Sept, so any lower would be shocking!.
That includes Boots, Homeandcleaning, direct website sales etc etc...Global consumer sales.
"H1 revenues more than doubled to £1.01m from £0.41m, including a small amount of IP-based income, versus nil IP income in the comparable period. Gross profit (on products) increased to £0.43m from £0.17m. "
"Elsewhere, sales across existing customers all increased in this segment, especially into Japan via our longstanding agents in pet and healthcare."
Apart from that alcohol free sanitiser is widely available.
As with demand for any product, other companies adapt and enter the market.
Results due next month, so not long now.
Best wait to see what they have to say.
Re My comment at start of this msg stream
"Worldwide house prices too high and due a correction."
Article in The Times:
"Is there a global housing market bubble?
Think the UK property market is crazy? From the US to Sweden, house prices are rising all over the world. David Smith reports"
The significance is that this contract is in Republic of Ireland and so shows TLY have expanded their footprint significantly. This could help them expand their other services to Ireland as well.
This is also 1 of 3 TLY Divisions. TLY have a diversified business model:
1) Insourcing - providing insourcing to all 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland to help healthcare service reduce operation waiting lists.
2) Urgent Care - NHS 111/Walk in Centres - Reduce A&E waiting times and unnecessary visits to A&E.
3) Planned Care - Physio, Dermatology etc.
"It's good to see that you FINALLY have come to the realisation that there NEVER WAS any Ad-Tech "Bubble Burst" nor any crash"
On the contary. The link below shows my posts and my stance, which has been consistent.
If sp rises because a major challenge has been temporarily postponed then it's proof that it IS severely impacting ad tech. Google have only postponed it for a year, what will happen once it is reinstated? What about Apple ITP2.0?
Therefore, I stand by my stance that ad tech faces major challenges.
How are they doing in terms of closing the gap with their US Peers??
as expected then.
Have a read of the company/sector newsflow as it would help with your research. It might have saved you buying/holding when blnx/rthm(now trmr) rose to eq sp £28 in Jan 2014 on bullish comments and eq sp 589p in 2017, again when they rose on bullish comments but fell on events.
My posts are all there to see.
"I think US Ad tech is in a bubble and CTV fraud/RTB/Privacy will
become a major issues over the next few months causing the bubble to burst."
"We do informal surveys that lead us to believe probably a quarter of people would prefer not to use alcohol on skin."
Probably a quarter!! 75% don't.
As with any product where there is demand other companies adapt and enter the market.
eg Boots alcohol free sanitisers available online:
Nilaqua 55ml for £2.49 compared to Boots (Byot) based 50ml for £3.19. So bigger bottle and cheaper than Byot based Boots own brand.
Boots own brand (Byot) based:
How did the MoS do last time?? The sp spiked on the tip before crashing back on results.
Now one week on since the dual listing IPO.
Trmr closed US $19.02 eq 668p UK. UK trmr on AIM closed 688p, so still a gap down on Monday. This is what I said about the problems of dual listing and the anxiety over a weekend as US closed lower than the UK price.
After yesterday's big gains, US Peers continued their rise today, although not such a big rise.
Pubmatic up 4.89% at $42.46
TTD up 0.18% at $76.02
Magn up 3.05% at $36.50
Publicis up 1.32% at $55.08
Again, the demand from UK investors was firmly brought back down to earth when the US market opened.
That's the problem with the dual listing, a vicious circle until news.
If things don't change soon, Ofer may find himself voted off as he was from Matomy.
"Matomy was led by Ofer Druker from its inception until April 2017, at which point he stepped down at the request of activist hedge fund Brosh Capital, who thought that the company was being mismanaged."
I use 1%, 3% and 10% rates when looking at impact of potential rises.
A 1% interest rate rise for a person who is mortgaged to the hilt at 3% will have a far greater impact on their outgoings than a 1% rise for a person mortgaged to the hilt at 10%.
Hence why I think 95% mortgages for first time buyers is a crazy idea.
"Lse watching Nasdaq. No reason for the rise on aim."
Exactly. The pre-market was following AIM.
I think the current holders in UK were buying hoping to encourage the US buying but it never happened.
This is the problem with the dual listing. The vicious circle until there is news to break the loop.
If US sp crashes then it will be too late for UK PIs to sell the following morning. Obviously, the reverse is true as well.
As it's Friday, there are 2.5 days (Fri evening + weekend) of possible ad tech news in US, which could effect this for Monday morning.
Dual listing was always a bad idea, especially for a share in a hyped sector.
Apple still appear to be going ahead with their removal of cookies.
"The Cookieless Future Just Got Closer—More Privacy Tsunamis Hitting Adtech Island"
"But the privacy feature that will have the greatest impact on digital advertising — i.e. all the ad tech vendors selling data and targeting services — is the update to Intelligent Tracking Prevention: hiding IP address from trackers (in addition to complete blocking of all third party cookies since iOS 13.4). From Apple’s livestream: "This year, Intelligent Tracking Prevention is getting even stronger by also hiding the user’s IP address from trackers. This means they can’t utilize the user’s IP address as a unique identifier to connect their activity across websites and build a profile about them"
Google postponement of removing cookies has given ad tech companies a sigh of relief but it's only temporary.
It backs up my stance that ad tech model and companies are hugely impacted by the challenges they face.
"The regulatory aspect is key here. Google and the U.K.'s antitrust and privacy regulators have come to an arrangement (which is currently open for consultation) under which the British watchdogs will hold Google's hand as it designs FLoC—an A.I.-based system in which web users will be lumped into categories for targeted-advertising purposes, rather than being tracked individually—or whatever replaces third-party cookies.
The deal obliges Google to pause for at least 60 days before making the Privacy Sandbox changes, so the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) can first check that publishers and Google's ad-tech rivals won't be unfairly disadvantaged.
In the event, Goel indicated in Thursday's post, Google will give advertisers and other ecosystem players nine months to get their act together, once FLoC is ready to roll in late 2022. Chrome will then phase out support for third-party cookies over a three-month period."
Ok so you think fy audited results aren't worth discussing.
How about the losing alphonso, their data provider, just weeks before the IPO?
Alphonso court case/US Listing...
The need for a US listing became urgent around March time... The Alphonso court case filing was last week.
Therefore, they would have known many weeks ago, maybe March, of the dispute with Alphonso. Companies try and resolve the differences before taking court action.
So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).
On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.
"-this is a real company with revenue"
So let's discuss the company for the benefit of all. People will opposing views is what makes a market.
They are a real company with real revenue, I never said they weren't.
Look at their latest audited results.
Despite the hotly contested US Elections and covid their revenues increased only 12%.
That includes fy contribution from Unruly (2019 NIL) and Rthm(2019 8 months).
They also have a history of missing expectations.
Those are facts.
The final figures from the company speak for themselves.
Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)
""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""
Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.
Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%
If you look at the trmr (TAP) sp history chart.
Shares rise on bullish comments and fall back on events:
In Jan 2018 the sp was around 500p. Within 18months, June 2019, it had dropped to around 120p, around 75% drop, based on events.
In that period, the company newsflow was:
Apr 2019 - Merges with rthm comb value $260m, talk of $700m revenues(never happened):
Apr 2019 - secondary placing to sell ex-CEO holding - the company ended up buying the majority of the placing shares due to lack of interest from II.
Therefore the reaction to the IPO was expected.
Best to trade and not get caught out again.
Can you please explain how posting company information with links is market abuse or misleading?
I'm glad you highlighted it, maybe it will stop all those posts without links to back them up.
I agree to some extent. I think the 'economic boost' we've had is short term because of pent up demand. People were desperate to go shopping, go on holiday.
I think with the furlough scheme still in place, millions currently have a lot of time and money. This i think, gives a 'false' sense of security and hope that all is fine.
The real test will be later after furlough has completely ended, repossessions are in full swing.
Yes, HBs have done well but that is primarily due to the govn schemes and the demand to move to bigger homes.
However, govn can't support the housing market forever. SD hol ending, new Help to Buy is only for First Time Buyers and has price caps. FTBs are needed to keep the supply chain going. Affordability problems is likely to prevent FTBs from joining the supply chain.