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I think they will 10bag from trough over the next couple of years.
10 bagger in the making.
Yes, I am backing my assertion and adding as and when. Bought some last week and today. My last week's buy appeared as 'sell'.
Look at the options awarded to the CEO, less than a year ago, exercisable in a year and the conditions attached.
Huge > 7m options awarded a year ago and backdated a year to 2022, exercisable in a year.
Look at TLY's chairman, started working only last month and has already bought > 1% using his own money.
That is how companies should work. I think using your own money is more powerful statement than IIs buying a few using client's money or the CEO getting huge free options.
Here, the huge options awarded, exercisable in a year is why I believe this is being talked up.
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
CEO also bought 500k shares at 9.8p 1.5 yrs ago.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/w13k73r
There's also lots of PIs on here who were also holding at higher prices, 40p++, and so need the sp to move higher so they can sell.
The £62m is the company own guidance for fy2024, not the 2nd fy2023 I've posted.
Year ends 31st December, so £62m guidance for fy2024, ie 31st December 2024.. this current year.
The 4x revenue I mention is for fy2023, ie 31st December 2023, which they have just completed.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export
Blackrhino,
The mcap is £200m or around 4x revenue!!
That's far too high.
That's for a company where revenue growth has been slowing over the past 3 years. According to the company's own accounts.
Where's the significant revenue growth going forward?
Fy2022: £48.5m (+30%)
Fy2023: £56m (+15.5%)
Fy2023: £62m(+10.7%)
These are the company's own figures
TU shows revenue growth as slowing significantly:
Fy2022: £48.5m (+30%)
Fy2023: £56m (+15.5%)
Fy2023: £62m(+10.7%)
"Full year revenue of £56.0 million, an increase of 15.5% (2022: £48.5 million)
Revenue guidance of£62 million for 2024"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export
There would be a finance dept with staff reporting to the CFO.
If the CFO went on maternity leave for a year or a holiday or dies, companies don't collapse.
There is a question as to why she resigned but I doubt we will ever know. It is quite normal if a CFO resigns for them to leave immediately.
The large trades are interesting. I think there'll be holding notices being published soon, current IIs adjusting or hopefully new ones due to the new Chair's connections.
Interesting times ahead.
Billb,
"Good to see JP Morgan buying shares in HVO."
JPM announced they now have 22m shares. How's that compare to the > 7m free options held by the CEO.
There was no evidence of significant holding/buying by institutions in 2021, 2022, 2023. The CEO awarded huge options a year ago, exercisable in a year and suddenly there's lots of media tips. Coincidence?
The fact the CEO's options are exercisable in a year suggests to me that these are being talked up.
"It's being talked up because it's a rare gem on the AIM market - A profitable, growing business that is now starting to pay regular dividends"
Given your assertion, you'll be loading up at 29p-30p, not selling any and holding for 2 years??
There's no evidence of significant revenue growth.
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £56m
efy2024 £62m
Where's the substantial revenue growth?
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export
" is now starting to pay regular dividends"
They clearly stated in the Interims, they intend to pay nominal dividend.
"Dividend
The Company intends to pay a nominal annual dividend going forward, details of which will be announced alongside publication of the Group's audited results for FY23."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w/export
" the total market cap of failing and soon to be bust TLY."
Really? TLY recently announced a national £13m contract. That's on top of the other many contracts giving estimated revenues of around £100m.
Revenues around £100m
Mcap £8m
HVO £56m revenues for fy2023 .
£200m mcap
" soon to be bust TLY"
Why? It's interesting the posts from you, Hallsworthy, Moniman, The Soundman on the TLY thread.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally
Is the success of your investment dependant on TLY and not the fundamentals of HVO? What about the red flag re clients largely paying for their new facility? Or Huge Shares on Loan during 2023?
Then again if readers look at ad vfn and select TLY. Select the "Don't forget the warrants thread" and search for "2010". Is the content of that post a coincidence as to what is posted on here?
Kilman
"on current price that's an EPS of about 2.3p(50% more than 2023). Quite bullish sir!"
Very bullish from SZ, given Cavendish, the company broker, has EPS 1.4p for fy2023.
Always best to check the metrics for yourselves.
Dustofnations/GeordieChris
"In our hypothetical example, you receive £100,000 up front, and can recognise 1/24th of it each month as the service is delivered to the customer.
It is more complicated in HVO's case because they have non-refundable elements, each project has its own schedule for deliverables and payment (as agreed with the customer), and, not all of the cash is necessarily received up front."
"he has zero concept of deferred revenue recognition double entry. he really needs to enroll on an 'accounting for dummies' course"
Thank you for the clarification.
That's one for Hallsworthy, Moniman then as well.
TLY has a similar model, they get paid some cash upfront. They win contracts from the NHS, HMP etc. They then get paid monthly, which is deferred income.
Yet on TLY the same posters are claiming TLY have high liabilities.
Maybe that "accounting for dummies" course is perfect for Hallsworthy, Moniman etc as well then.
Unless they are spinning the same metrics depending on whether they are desperately ramping/deramping....
Hallsworthy's post, 1st Feb 08.16:
Short term liabilities so high and huge red flag in the fact they have a SINGLE CUSTOMER in the NHS.
Moniman 1st Feb 08.56
"Appears to be a HUGE red flag about cash levels and government contracts. Another HUGE red flag appears to be margin pressure as NHS is running on empty it seems"
Read the "Sinking ship" and the "Huge cash burn" threads.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally
Btw, neither are true, as there's dozens of NHS' (local health boards) within the UK. Their margins are as high as 40% on some contracts, outside of NHS.
JPM bought around 22m shares.
How's that compare to the CEO's free over 7m options?
His options must be considered huge if 22m shares bought by an institution buying 22m shares is.
That's my point, no evidence of significant buying nor holding 2021, 2022, 2023 by institutionS.
The CEO gets awarded over 7m options < year ago, exercisable in a year and then there's interest.
It's been talked up.
TLY have around 50 vacancies with around 1/2 advertised recently in January. The oldest vacancy is only about 5 weeks old, so older ones have been filled.
If they had cash problems then they wouldn't currently have c50 vacancies, would they?
https://eur232.dayforcehcm.com/CandidatePortal/en-GB/totallygroup
Magoo247
Read my posting history.
The same happened at rthm, trmr, byot, tap etc etc
Rampers were saying similar whilst I posted the bear points/red flags. Each one of them crashed 80-90% due to the red flags I posted.
Read about trmr from around page 50.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/
If you believe HVO has no bear points/red flags then feel free to load up and continue to hold.
I see problems/red flags with:
the business model,
lack of strong revenue growth,
sp already close to company brokers targets,
huge options for CEO,
£31m total liabilities
No evidence of significant buying (TR1s) and holding by institutions > 3%.
Huge shares on loan, 10-11m during of 2023.
The fact the CFO left immediately and there was no TU tells me she resigned and was not pushed. I doubt any company would prepare and issue a TU immediately upon receiving a CFO's resignation.
If they were planning to sack the CFO then they would have planned a replacement.
So I think she resigned and being a CFO, left immediately.
Companies have other team members who are able to work whilst staff are away. After all, the company wouldn't have stopped working if the CFO had gone on a year's maternity leave or a long holiday.
The question is why she resigned? I doubt we will ever know due to confidentiality clauses.
JimmyCdee
" I could however be reading things wrong, anyone got any thoughts?"
The shares are trading close to the company's own Nomad target. The previous NOMAD, who was replaced recently had a 29p target based on the takeover price of, what they considered was a UK Peer.
Therefore, I think a lot of investors will see this as potential is already factored in.
I believe the company is being talked up as the CEO has huge 7m options, which were awarded a year ago.
My bear points/red flags:
£200m mcap for a company with £56m revenues, not profit, revenues!!
CEO has huge 7m options
questionable business model
No evidence of significant buying nor holdings by InstitutionS in 2021, 2022, 2023.... If there was strong growth then Institutions would be scrambling to buy.
No evidence of significant revenue growth, so I believe business has matured.
Huge liabilities of £31m as of latest AR - fy2022.
Kingy,
"Hi Silky ..as you perceive Mo's options to be a red flag rather than a normal long term incentive plan"
Whenever there's huge options awarded to 1 director then I see it as a red flag.
A similar happened at RTHM, which I also saw as a red flag. The shares crashed 80%.
The huge options together with the holdings by CEO and CF says to me that this is being talked up.
Look at the options awarded to the CEO, less than a year ago, exercisable in a year and the conditions attached.
These and the number of shares bought by him, tells you why the company is being talked up.
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
CEO also bought 500k shares at 9.8p 1.5 yrs ago.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/w13k73r
Plus add to the CEO options and purchase 1.5yrs ago, CF also bought over 1m shares at 26.5p 2.5years ago.
The current sp of 28p means CF is now finally back in profit on those buys.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/w13k89r
There's also lots of PIs on here who were also holding at higher prices, 40p++, and so need the sp to move higher so they can sell.
Moniman,
There's no need for personal abuse if someone posts an opinion which doesn't suit you.
When posters resort to personal abuse, they have lost the argument.
I'm posted my opinions based on facts which are in the public domain.
If you disagree then counter the bear points, load up and hold.
Look at the HVO posters posting on TLY thread, Moniman, BillB, TheSoundMan, Shandy
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/moniman/
Moniman,
"£1 target from MF is not unrealistic looking at the projections."
So, obviously you are backing your assertion, are loading up big time at 28p+++ and won't sell a single share until they reach £1.
After all, according to you, the £1 is realistic.
Kilman,
Dividend.
Last year was a 'special dividend'.
This year they intend to pay a 'nominal dividend'.
I'd expect a nominal dividend to be lower than the special. We'll know soon enough.
From fy2022 results:
One-off special dividend of c.£3.0m, being 0.45p per share reflecting strong cash generation during the year, payable on 9 June 2023 to shareholders on the register on 5 May 2023."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rnk452r/export
From H1:
Dividend
"The Company intends to pay a nominal annual dividend going forward, details of which will be announced alongside publication of the Group's audited results for FY23."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w/export
Nearly 400 trades already!
Looks like some PIs churning trades to me.
odd small trades, followed by larger sells..
eg look at trades at 11.39...
2 small buy trades 101 & 165, £30 & £50
then a couple of minutes later 2x50k sells.