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Rickylfc,
"There’s bound to be profit taking after the results"
Hindsight post. Why didn't you say so before the results were published.
"You never seem to respond when asked why you were warning of the dangers of Hvo at 10p and promoting the Tly business and its model at 28p??"
Very selective timeframe, isn't it?
Over the past few months, I've been posting HVO's company newsflow, facts and opinions based on those facts.
I've been saying the company is being talked up and maintaining that assertion, even when the sp was surging at 30p.
The fact is the Chairman dumped majority of his holding so he also obviously thought 28p was right price!!
I also was negative on HVO 2.5years when, as Orph, the sp was around 27p. They've hardly above that sp now after all this time, are they?
In terms of TLY, over the past few months, I've also been positive on them at 4p.
If you think HVO can go from 45p(3 years ago) to 10p to 28p then why do you think TLY or any other share can't?
If after all this time, the best argument against me is nothing better than trying to bully me into silence by posting on unrelated threads I contribute to tells me that I'm probably right in my views. If you could counter what I say with any kind of cogent, rational argument you would have by now.
The fact is the chairman/founder dumped majority of his holding in a discounted secondary placing.
The CEO has >7m options, awarded a year ago and now exercisable from a few months time.
Revenue/Order book growth has slowed significantly.
Some on here have no conviction in their investment and so pulling the wool over any gullible readers is their way of ramping the share.
Is it a coincidence that the following shares, which I also posted the company newsflow, facts and opinions on those facts, the red flags etc eventually crashed due to those red flags and posters from there also deramped TLY to pull the wool over gullible reader's eyes???.
Byot down 99.9% (now delisting), Trmr down 80%, rthm down 80%, Nano down 60%
H1-2024 revenue £55m
c40% held by institutions
No evidence of significant selling by institutionS between July 2023 and H1 end. Just small sells and hundreds of them to manipulate the shares.
Chairman has been buying.
Chairman is co-founder of Liberum and is director of other investment companies.
National contracts by NHS England
Provides their services in all 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland. They have won contracts in RoI
They paid their fy dividend last Sept, so no evidence they were out of cash, All
AGM resolutions passed
Both Labour and Tories back the use of private providers by the NHS.
GE this year and both will be targeting improvements in the NHS.
Last 5 years:
fy period, revenue, cash, adj Ebitda
2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m
2021 £113M, £14.8m, £5m
2022 £127.4m, £15.3m, £6.2m
2023 £135.7m, £6.5m, £6.9m
H12024 £55.8m, £1.7m, £0.6m
Thorndon,
I post company newsflow, facts and opinions based on those facts, here and on the other shares.
Some don't like the company newsflow, facts and opinions based on facts that they think the best way to pull the wool over gullible reader's eyes is to deramp TLY.
It's far easier to manipulate the sp of an iliiquid company than counter the facts and opinions based on those facts.
It's not a coincidence that the other shares I've warned about have crashed due to the warnings I posted. Byot, down 99.9%. Trmr, down 80%. Rthm, down 80%. Nano, down 60%.
Best everyone reads the company newsflow, facts and form their own opinion.
StrictlyZinc
"Now that’s more like it!!"
How's the 1.2m compare to the 25m dumped by the Chairman/founder?
It's around 5% of the number dumped by him, isn't it?
Likewise, how does the 1.2m trade compare to the >7m options held by the CEO?
So if a 1.2m trade is 'big boys' have arrived, what is 25m dumped by the chairman or the 7m options held by the CEO, due to become exercisable in few months then?
Ricky,
The company newsflow and evidence is there for all to see and has been as predicted.
Shouldn't you be questioning why some rampers have already been proven to be completely wrong? Why not ask them to accept they were wrong?
There could be and likely to be more talking up of the company, as the CEO's huge options exercisable date gets closer, as per my assertions.
The newflow backs my assertions to date.
Fy results:
Nothing which wasn't expected, no rise post results.
Chairman dumped majority of his holding after shares talked up and before fy results.
Revenue/Order book growth rate has slowed significantly.
etc
etc
SZ,
"Same as last year really not a good move by the board."
As predicted, the nominal dividend hasn't made any difference.
I'm sure there'll be more hindsight opinions coming along agreeing with the bear points I've raised. My posts have been consistent.
Any more plausible throwaway comments or stories from the regulars here to pull the wool over PIs?
There should be a TU within days.
My thoughts.
given the sp is below nominal value, I fully expect some CA, which could include capital reorganisation or going private.
Positives:
Both Labour and Tories have endorsed the use of private companies to bring down waiting lists.
TLY provides it's services in all 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland.
NHS have endorsed TLY services, which is evidenced by the national contracts awarded to them.
Over £55m revenues in H1, so expecting around £100m for fy.
c40% held by institutions and some increased. So TLY management are backed by significant holdings by IIs.
New Chairman was co-founder of Liberum and has been buying shares. He's obviously got contacts with IIs, who would back the company.
Consultants strike has ended
Wage inflation should have reduced considerably
Mcap only £9m.
Negatives:
Junior Doctors strike is still ongoing. That is the biggest problem facing the NHS.
Sp is below nominal value. Obviously the sp was manipulated lower by certain people to get to the position where TLY are forced to act.
Therefore, I expect CA, which could be capital restructuring as they did in 2019 or going private.
I, for one, have no problem if they go private because clearly there's huge demand for their services.
The company is clearly trusted by the NHS as evidenced by the contracts, especially the national contract awarded a few months ago.
If the company goes private and then they can concentrate or building the business without the distraction of muppets manipulating the sp. Then they can come back in 2-3 years time, multiple of today's low valuation. That would be a great bonus for retirement planning.
Hallsworthy,
"The throwaway pollution comment was clearly a random example which you've strangely latched on to, but the point is you have someone in a bed in quarantine you can watch what they eat, drink, breathe, how long the sleep for, how often and how long they sit on the toilet"
The comment was made by dustofnations, whilst he was also commenting re Mo's comments. DoN was also praising Mo for replying to his question.
How do you know DustofNations made a throwaway comment? Is he a mate?
It raises the question as to how many other comments are also throwaway comments?
My comments, bear points/red flags have been consistent. The company newsflow backs up what I've been saying.
As expected, results published and no surge.
The bear points/red flags haven't been countered or proved wrong.
Look at the current sp. The Chairman dumped majority of his holding at 28p. As Chairman/founder, he knows the business better than anyone else.
Turnkey,
My assertion is that revenues/order book growth has slowed significantly. The figures from the company back up my assertion.
The Chairman would have known the figures. I think that's why he dumped majority of his holding 2 months ago, well before the fy results.
Dustofnations,
Please answer the replies to your original assertions:
You claimed:
"I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar"
My reply:
Really? Gov has huge debt and needs to raise money. There's also a GE this year, which raises uncertainty about direction of govn policy going forward.
Please explain why you happy the company is investing shareholder's money in high risk govn gilts, when there's huge uncertainty over govn debt and there's a GE this year?
Your comment re controlled environment:
"In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!"
They don't keep 'volunteers' in quarantine for life? It's usually a few days, I'm glad you agree on that. The volunteers, who can be in desperate need of money, eg students, won't keep a running day by day log of whether they breathed in polluted air!!!
HVO's facility is in London. If volunteers go down to London to the facility then they will obviously be breathing in polluted air every day.
How will they monitor whether the volunteer breathed in some polluted air etc, given London is a polluted city?
Can you point to where the company states that they monitor "whether the volunteer has breathed in some polluted air" and how they distinguish between polluted and unpolluted air?
The bear points I've mentioned still valid then.
Dustofnations
"In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!"
They don't keep 'volunteers' in quarantine for life? It's usually a few days. The volunteers, who can be in desperate need of money, eg students, won't keep a running day by day log of whether they breathed in polluted air!!!
My assertion that the business model is questionable remains.
"I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar"
Really? Gov has huge debt and needs to raise money. There's also a GE this year, which raises uncertainty about direction of govn policy going forward.
Lots of local councils are going technically bankrupt.
Gov gilts are high risk. You can easily get around 4-5% in safer accounts.
Skywalker,
"buoyed by organic growth of 8-10 per cent per year and the contribution from synergistic bolt-on acquisitions."
There you go, backs up exactly as I was saying, revenue growth has slowed significantly.
Where's the significant revenue growth?
The suggestion has been that the company is growing fast, booming etc whereas the figures, revenues and order book, don't back it up.
These are their own figures:
H1 2022
Order: £70m
fy 2022
rev £50.7m
Order £76m
H1 2023
Order: £78m
fy 2023
rev: £56m
Order: £80m
fy 2024
Expected Rev £62m
Both Labour and Tories are committed to using more private companies to help reduce waiting lists.
Labour's Wes Streeting attacks 'middle class Lefties' opposed to his plan to use private healthcare to help the NHS recover if Labour wins the election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13283879/Labours-Wes-Streeting-attacks-middle-class-lefties-opposed-plan-use-private-healthcare-help-NHS-recover-Labour-wins-election.html
MO has huge > 7m options, awarded last year, back dated to 2022 and excersiable from few months time.
He has the incentive to talk up the company.
Look at the conditions attached to his huge 7m options:
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the dateMr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.
The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
Don't forget the investor meet presentation at 6pm.
I'm expecting MO will be bullish with vast majority of the presentation similar to the last one.
Let's see if he has anything new to add. Any contracts, given we're already in Q2?
They don't mention cash as of 31st March, ie Q1 end.
Given they do mention other post period highlights, I think they should have mentioned the current cash position. Now the new facility is up and running then it would have been useful to see if cash has declined.
All they say is
"Strong cash position underpins the Group's M&A strategy"
DT's buy the other day was well timed. He obviously wants to delist.
If this gets to the vote then why would DT want to remain listed?
It'll be reputational damage to him if he doesn't go through with a delisting.
Unless of course, DT, put the statement out to entice bidders. Then he would be in profit with his recent buying.