Member Info for stt1

Bru
"5 minutes ago you were saying that this industry is doomed because all the potential adtech bubble burst . Now you are happy to emphasize the sell or buy side only companies "

I've never claimed the ad tech industry, itself, is 'doomed'.

They are 2 different bear points facing trmr.

1) The ad tech bubble bursting. When that happens all ad tech companies, regardless of their business model, should see their sp crash. Compare the fundamentals to a year ago and you'll see the only thing driving the sp is PI appetite. The same happened in 2013-14 and 2016-17 before prices fell due to events. It reminds me of the .com boom and subsequent bust. Sps of all .com companies fell when .com bubble burst.
2) The single sided v full stack. The Trade Desk and Telaria(Magnite) commented against the full stack.
The first is to do with the ad tech bubble, the 2nd to do with the model used by the companies.

Rthm(now merged with trmr) operated a full stack for years. They made losses for years. Their results speak for themselves.
The problem with a full stack is one of transparency, as Telaria said when they demerged from trmr(TAP).

Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from trmr(TAP)... perceived conflict of interest

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

****************************************************************************

The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

PUBM, like Magnite(Telaria(ex trmr)) and SpotX, are also ranked higher rthm(now trmr) on the Pixalate Seller Trust index.

Is it a coincidence that Magnite bought SPOTX because they have a higher Pixalate ranking, given Magnite have advocated transparency within Ad Tech eco system?

Pixalate rankings. Seller Trust rankings.

For CTV, on Roku/Samsung, Magnite(Telaria) have a higher trust ranking than rthm(Trmr).
Telaria demerged from Trmr(when it was TAP). Now part of Magnite.

Q1 - 2020 - CTV
ROKU
Telaria (Magnite) 1st/10
PUBM 4th/10th
SPOTX 5th/10th
RhythmOne 9th/10, down 4.

SAMSUNG
SPOTX 2nd/10
PUBM 9th/10
Rhythmone 10th/10

https://www.pixalate.com/sellertrustindex/#!Roku

Pubmatic announces 4th qtr results.

Again, Pubmatic only operate ONE side of the ad tech model, like Magnite, they are a SSP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pubmatic-announces-record-fourth-quarter-210500912.html

Benrump
"there should be a new scheme for first time buyers!"

There's already a new Help to Buy scheme starting from 1st April. The current one ends 31st March and the extension is to allow current buyers to complete, ie no new buyers.
The new scheme is not as favourable for HBs as the current one. It is for 1st time buyers only and has regional price caps.

However, help to buy in Scotland has already ended. Therefore, I don't think Scottish buyers of TW homes have the extension until May.

"The scheme is available across Scotland to first time buyers and existing homeowners until Friday 5 February 2021 at 6pm when the scheme will close for all new applications."

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/ways-to-buy/help-to-buy/help-to-buy-scotland

Scottish Budget. Published yesterday.
ËœKatie Cautious missed a trick on LBTT threshold

"The Scottish Governments ËœHelp to Buy scheme, which has supported buyers by providing interest-free equity loans worth up to 15 per cent of the purchase price of a newly-built home up to a maximum price of £200,000, will end tomorrow."

https://www.scotsman.com/business/scottish-budget-katie-cautious-missed-trick-lbtt-threshold-david-alexander-3121009

Bru,
"Not everyone thinks like you do you know?"

So they shouldn't. Everyone should form their own opinion, as it's their money.

The Trade Desk operate a different ad tech model to trmr. They are a DSP.
Trmr operate a full stack, ie serve both sides of the ad tech model.
Below are Telaria(demerged from trmr) and The Trade Desk's comments on operating the one side of the ad tech model.
Trmr actuals are lower than Finncap's March expectation and their adj ebitda lower than fy2019.
What's changed compared to a last year?

Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from trmr(TAP)... perceived conflict of interest

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

****************************************************************************

The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals
Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower. I was expecting adj Ebitda to be significantly higher than fy2019, especially given the surge in ads due to US Elections and supposedly the huge increase in CTV.

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Finncap expectations
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

Magnite closed down 11%
The Trade Desk closed down 6%

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and will burst. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:

1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud

3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major negative newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

Brubru,

"Magnite inc is worth >6 B, Tremor only 0.7 B. Magnite revenue 199 M Tremor revenue 400 m"

Trmr $22m debt provision, H1 $30m loss, CEO sells 700k shares, adj ebitda lower than fy2019.

Revenues:
Trmr + rthm were supposed to have revenues around $700m when they merged, yet still significantly lower
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/01/30/rhythmone-and-taptica-plot-merger-compete-with-google

Revenue increase were mainly from acquisitions, Unruly Jan 2020, so 1st full year contribution and full contribution from rthm(8mnths in fy2019).

Magnite (Telaria + Rubicon merger):

Crucially, Telaria(now Magnite) demerged from trmr citing perceived conflict of interest. Why did they demerge from trmr?

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

The Trade Desk - one side of ad tech model:
The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

Sizmek were also offering CTV, they were also Nasdaq listed and they owed rthm(now trmr) over $m... Yet they filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Magnite sp currently down 13%

Their COO sold $1.7m shares.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni

Bald
".I much prefer posters who talk about £10 per share in coming months "

I prefer posters who back up their opinions with links and their convictions and buy.

We've been here:

In 2016-17, previous US Election, the rthm eq sp tripled and was around 580p 4 yrs ago based on bullish comments. The broker targets were similar to now, the bullish comments etc.

Yet the same posters who held when rthm(blnx) were eq sp around £28 in Jan 2014 or 580p in 2017, aren't loading up this time.

Bear points.
Facts over the past year - despite a bullish TU a year ago:

1) In March 2020, they published a huge 11fold increase in debt provision.

Then 6 months later
2) In Sept 2020, they published a $30m loss

Then 3 months later
3) The CEO sells 700k shares, 1/3 of his holding.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy 2020 fy2020 Adj EBITDA LOWER than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.

previous year's results:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

Perkylad,
"On anything other than a short term/traders viewpoint this is a solid hold supported by the increasing turnover, cash in the bank and the share buyback"

Previous buy backs have never made any difference, they still had a secondary placing in Apr 2019, in between buybacks.

Revenues/cash:
The majority of the revenue increase is due to the FIRST full year contribution from Unruly, which they bought last Jan 2020, first full year contribution from rthm(only 8 months in fy2019), hotly contested US Election. There's no US Election for another 4 yrs.

Rthm(now merged with trmr) also tripled in 2016-17 but fell back in 2017, based on events.

With huge ad spend during the US Election and huge increase in CTV, why isn't there a huge increase in adj Ebitda. It's lower than fy2019!!!

Read the company accounts/newsflow.

fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals
Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower. I was expecting adj Ebitda to be significantly higher than fy2019, especially given the surge in ads due to US Elections and supposedly the huge increase in CTV.

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Finncap expectations
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

They bought Unruly at the beginning of 2020, so there was no revenue contribution from them in fy2019 but will be virtually a full year's contribution in fy2020. Unruly revenue was $43m 6 months before being acquired by Trmr.

The TU figures in the TU are still below Finncap's expectations from 10 months ago.

Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $20m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

"Unruly generated £43.5 million ($57 million) in revenue and an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization loss of £8.8 million pounds ($11.6 million) in the 12 months until June 30. Tremor said in Monday’s announcement that Unruly is expected to “positively contribute to adjusted EBITDAâ€? in 2021"

https://digiday.com/media/paltry-price-paid-unruly-rattles-consolidating-ad-tech-market/#:~:text=Unruly%20generated%

Seen this before.
Rthm(ex blnx) now merged with trmr.

In 2013-14, the blnx sp quadrupled, from eq 760p to £28 on back of bullish comments, video is everything etc and then crashed 60% on the back of EVENTS.

In 2016-17, previous US Election, rthm eq sp tripled from eq 188p to 589p on bullish comments before crashing due to EVENTS/industry challenges.

In Apr 2019, rthm merged with trmr.
Just few months later:

The profit warning from the company themselves, is there in black and white - AS EXPECTED.

" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "

The closing of rthm's operations - rthm operations not so good then? - AS EXPECTED

"Several of RhythmOne's products have been discontinued alongside its demand-side platform ("DSP"). The development of RhythmOne's data management platform ("DMP) has also been taken in-house. This initiative created an operational challenge for management, however they believe the decision will markedly benefit the company in the medium-term. The reduced development, maintenance and data centre costs form part of the wider initiative to streamline the Company's operations."

Industry Challenges continues to affect trmr - AS EXPECTED

"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability. "

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/interim-results/201909240700083776N/

House prices 2020.

According to govn website, just published, the average UK property prices for 2020, new builds prices fell compared to the previous qtr.

Average prices plus annual increase:
UK: £251,500, up 8.5%
New Builds: £327,486, up 6.3% (qtr change -0.7%)
Existing: £258,708, up 5.6%, (qtr change 1.1)

London: £496,066 up 3.5%
New Builds: £505,833, up 3.4% (qtr change -2.1%)
Existing: £492,362, up 4.4% (qtr change -0.7%)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2020

House prices 2020.

According to govn website, just published, the average UK property prices for 2020, new builds prices fell compared to the previous qtr.

Average prices plus annual increase:
UK: £251,500, up 8.5%
New Builds: £327,486, up 6.3% (qtr change -0.7%)
Existing: £258,708, up 5.6%, (qtr change 1.1)

London: £496,066 up 3.5%
New Builds: £505,833, up 3.4% (qtr change -2.1%)
Existing: £492,362, up 4.4% (qtr change -0.7%)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2020

Buy backs.
In Apr 2019, just 3 weeks after the rthm merger and in between buy backs, they announced a secondary placing. Therefore, I wouldn't read too much into buy backs.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/finncap/rns/launch-of-secondary-placing-in-taptica/201904240700048697W/

Article on ad tech fraud

"Ad Fraud – The Hidden Way Ad Tech Is Stealing Your Ad Dollars"

https://www.business2community.com/cybersecurity/ad-fraud-the-hidden-way-ad-tech-is-stealing-your-ad-dollars-02387427

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and will burst. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:

1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud

3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major negative newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

The results end of next month should confirm whether the red flags are still there.
TU showed that adj ebitda for fy2020 is actually lower than the previous year. Revenues increased due to:
- full year contributions from Unruly, bought Jan 2020,
- rthm(8 mnth contribution for fy2019),
- the hotly contested US Elections and
- covid.

Bear points.
Facts over the past year.
1) In March 2020, they published a huge 11fold increase in debt provision.

Then 6 months later
2) In Sept 2020, they published a $30m loss

Then 3 months later
3) The CEO sells 700k shares, 1/3 of his holding.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy2020 Adj EBITDA lower than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.

The comments are going to be bullish, as they usually are. The headline figures will also be good due to US Elections and covid.
The important points will be reading between the lines, debt provision, profit/loss.

Their current buy back finishes 31st March.

Rusty,
"that tells me the company are happy to buy back shares even at this level which should show great confidence in the future."

How do you know the company are happy with buy backs at this level - The buy backs are conducted independently by Finncap and end when they have spent $10m or 31st March.

"The Buyback Programme will be independently managed by finnCap Ltd, the Company's broker, which will make trading decisions independently and without the influence of the Company. "

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Commencement-of-Share-Buyback-Programme-221020.pdf

The company has been buying back for years and hasn't made any difference to their stance.
In fact 2 yrs ago, Apr 2019, soon after rthm merger, they launched a secondary placing in between buy backs.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/219015/taptica-weak-as-investors-launch-secondary-placing-of-shares-representing-about-106-of-its-issued-share-capital-219015.html

Radium,
"Someone tell stt that cookies will not be a factor in the future."

That's old news.
Replacing cookies was a major industry challenge I mentioned some 2+yrs ago. The Trade Desk introduced their own. This came about because Apple & Google started purging cookies.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2019/04/10/apple-itp-2-1-what-it-is-what-it-means-and-why-it-matters/?sh=799a77cf7cb8