Member Info for stt1

Tricky,
"You bang on about the challenges facing the ad-tech sector whilst praising the healthcare private sector firms"

I've posted company/sector newsflow and news articles, very often with links to back up my opinions. I do a lot of research on company/sector news and provide the information, it's up to readers to form their own opinion, it's their money after all. If you want then you are welcome to counter them.

Radium,
Do some research, you're making yourself look a fool.

"And then you have the Labour opposition which is bent on reducing the role of privatisation in the NHS."

Really??? They were in power for 13 yrs and the role of private providers wasn't reduced.
In fact under Labour they pushed through Private Finance Initiative which cost tax-payers billions of pounds.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/sep/30/labourconference.labour3

Labour created the NHS over 70yrs ago. Private providers have always been an integral part of the NHS

Labour also created NHS Direct, the fore-runner to NHS 111. All the Tories did was to rename it and build on the initiative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Direct

"stt knew all this already and ‘added a few’ because the reforms were, ‘great for Totally Plc’"

I've backed my conviction and will buy more as and when possible and will hold.

How about you stating on trmr thread that you are loading up at 600p+++ and will hold?

My 2nd point, as to why the ad tech bubble will burst...
Dan Slivjanovski has many years of working with ad tech and was ex-Chief Operating Officer of rthm, is now merged with trmr. His opinion..

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud within ad tech ecosystem.

The ex-Chief Operations Officer Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...

"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.

Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. While advertisers continue to demand transparency of their partners downstream, even going so far as to hold budgets hostage, consumers who have enjoyed positive, emotional connections with their brands online‚¬are at risk of turning off due to privacy concerns. Stakeholders will expect even greater clarity and accountability in the quality of the online platforms and content that they invest behind"

Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters‚ in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."

http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/

*******************************************************************************

I think there is an ad tech bubble and it will burst soon. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:

1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

Radium
"Stts pain is my gain"

Great if I'm helping!! Are you loading up at 600p+++ and holding for the long term or hoping others are?
Load up, sit back and wait for those gains you are expecting to come in.

What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?

I think there is an ad tech bubble and it will burst soon. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:

1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

**************************************************************
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb

Data privacy legislations in 2020 and trends to watch out for in 2021

https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/data-privacy-legislations-in-2020-and-trends-to-watch-out-for-in-2021/

Radium
"I get the feeling that the handle is just starting to form on the hockey stick."

Are you backing that and loading up at 600p+++ and then holding until the sp reaches the top of that hockey stick?

Micro,
oops..
Yes, not understanding that insourcing operate in all 4 UK nations AND IRELAND.

Read the company/sector newsflow. The changes were expected and therefore, are great for TLY.

;-)

On TLY, the news is positive and expected.
It is great for TLY.

In Long,
"Keep posting your good finds"

Thanks, I post company/sector/economic newsflow.
I've done the same on the other shares, I have no problem anybody reading my posts.

What's interesting is posters on trmr, they want everyone to ignore my posts(which contain the company/sector newsflow), yet they won't do so themselves!!! they won't load up themselves and hold, yet they want others to!!!
I think it's because rthm(now merged with trmr) were at £28 in Jan 2014 and current trmr sp is around 600p!!

In Long,
they don't bother me. They are making fools of themselves, so let them.

The news was expected and is great for TLY. If the sp falls, I will load up.

If the bear points can be countered, it makes the bull case stronger.
Likewise, if the bull case can be countered, it makes the bear case stronger.

I've countered all the bear points and so the bull case is even stronger.

They

100k, £570k sell just gone through..

Sizmek filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, owing millions to various ad tech companies, including Rthm (and Unruly)

This was Apr 2019.

https://digiday.com/media/tip-ice-berg-sizmek-saga-spells-trouble-ad-tech/

The SAME year, fy2019, Trmr's debt provision increase 11 fold!!

Therefore, I believe the debt provision increased 11 fold on the back of Sizmek filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Back to trmr..

So why the huge 11 fold increase in debt provision?

The ad tech model works by DSPs/SSPs, partnering with each other. It is usually the case that the company would pay their 'supplier' (other ad tech companies) around 60 days but receive their cut from 'customers' (other ad tech companies) around 90 days. That gap("inventory payments") has to be covered from their own cash or they setup credit facilities.

Have a look at trmr's last TU, net revenues ex-'media cost' was $179-181m whereas headline rate was $404-$408m.

"Tremor now expects to report revenues of $404-408 million, net revenues of $179-181 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $58-60 million for the year ended 31 December 2020."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/TRMR-Trading-Statement-080121.pdf

Ad Tech companies have implemented credit facilities in the past.

The Trade Desk and MediaMath, both huge companies within the AdTech Ecosystem had to raise money because of the way inventory payments work.

"Brands and agencies often pay DSPs on 90-day or even 120-day cycles. But DSPs pay SSPs between 30 to 60 days."

"DSPs shoulder this burden directly because they constantly owe money to inventory suppliers. The Trade Desk took out a $200 million loan in 2017 to preserve liquidity while it bridges inventory payments. MediaMath has raised more than $600 million, including $225 million last year."

https://adexchanger.com/online-advertising/sizmeks-bankruptcy-is-changing-how-the-supply-side-manages-dsp-debts/

Rthm(now merged with trmr) setup a revolving credit facility in Nov 2017, just months after announcing $75m cash. Again, just after the previous US Presidential Election in 2016.

Gamestop sp kept rising, didn't it!!!
Rthm(blnx), now trmr, eq sp was £28 in Jan 2014 before sp fell. It was around 580p just 4 yrs ago after the previous US Elections, before it fell to around 100p.
TAP(now trmr) sp was around 500p, 3 yrs ago before the fell.

It says a lot when PIs want others to buy suggesting huge returns ahead but commit to do so themselves.

Have a look at the huge increase in debt provision, from $2m to $22m.
If people know how the ad tech model works, explain why the debt provision increased 11 fold??

Facts over the past year.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy2020 Adj EBITDA lower than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44523916&from=4143&to=4143

Mentioned again on the bbc website.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985910

The changes were expected and are great for TLY.

gdog
"Magnite's been incredible for me. After the selloff yesterday, I still have a 17 bagger in three years."

How did you 17bag on Magnite over 3 yrs??

Magnite was only incorporated less than a year ago!!
Telaria(demerged from Trmr) and Rubicon merged and then named as Magnite, last June, 8 months ago.

https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2020/06/30/rubicon-rebrands-as-magnite-after-telaria-merger.html#:~:text=Ad%20tech%20company%20Rubicon%20Project,two%20sell%2Dside%20advertising%20platform.

Telaria demerged from Taptica(now trmr). They then merged with Rubicon to form Magnite.
Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from Trmr(when TAP).. perceived conflict of interest as trmr run a full stack.

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

Criteo results published today. Shares close up 17%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/criteo-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-120000345.html

Ad tech peer Magnite closed down 6%.

Radium
"The other jurisdictions will follow NHS England's reforms."

Can you please explain why?
1) the other nations went their own way when it came to covid restrictions/lockdown, didn't they? They all had different timescales, different meaning for tiers, support bubbles etc.

2) the Irish govn do not follow UK Parliament laws. Ireland gained independence from the UK a century ago!!

3) the proposed changes address the way contracts are awarded via CCGs. CCGs only exist in England.

4) All govn want to reduce the huge increase in waiting lists for operations, which increased significantly because of covid. If they don't reduce operation waiting times, there will be a public outcry.

5) Clinicians are limited to the amount they work for the NHS, majority of consultants don't work evening/weekends. Whereas Insourcing takes advantage of that 'free time' and operates weekends and evenings.

Geoff,
"NHS Wales waiting lists are now apparently eight times higher than a year ago."

TLY insourcing division, which is growing fast, operates in NHS Wales, NHS Scotland, NHS NI, NHS England and IRELANDS.

The proposed changes only affect NHS England. Insourcing division operates in all 4 UK nations plus IRELAND. Insourcing will continue to grow because waiting lists have increased substantially due to Covid.