Member Info for stt1

Tilly
"Alcohol based hand gels maybe cheap but long term use can cause dermatitis"

The problem is given it's been over a year since the pandemic started, other companies have now adapted and entered the market.
Now there are lots of hand sanitisers available, both alcohol and non-alcohol, both at low prices.

eg this 50ml bottle, non-alcohol at Superdrug is only 79p, a price which is comparable to a lot of alcohol based 50ml bottles.
https://www.superdrug.com/Skin/Hand-Care/Hand-Gel/Rosdon-Group-Uk-Ltd-Alcohol-Free-Hand-Sanitiser-Gel-50ml/p/797188

Tricky, as expected, the ICO to RESUME their investigation into RTB, which is the heart of the ad tech model. The investigation was paused due to covid.

This was Point 1 of my 3, listed below 'Investigations into Ad Tech Model'

"“In May 2020, we paused our investigation into real time bidding (RTB) and the adtech industry, as we prioritised activities responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. We have now resumed our investigation."

https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/news-and-events/news-and-blogs/2021/01/adtech-investigation-resumes/

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

Telaria used to be part of Trmr, when they were Tapitica. Telaria was demerged and now have merged with Rubicon to form Magnite.

BOTH MAGNITE AND TTD run Single side of the ad tech ecosystem. Trmr run a full stack - different models.

Telaria (Magnite) reasons for selling their TremorDSP.. perceived conflict of interest

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

****************************************************************************

The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

Telaria demerged from Trmr because the full stack model wasn't working. Likewise, TTD don't run a full stack model because they don't see it works.
They are running different ad tech models to Trmr.

******************************************************************************************

Further, Magnite (Telaria & Rubicon merger)
Telaria is splitting their CTV offering and marketing it as a seperate offering.

"Earlier this week, the ad-tech company began contacting clients and partners informing them that the former Telaria offering is now known as Magnite CTV, while Rubicon Project’s is to be known as Magnite DV+."

https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/6-months-after-merger-magnite-rebrands-its-ad-stack/

And it's worth noting the facts, which tend to appear in results and not TU or headlines.

Trmr.
Facts - Bear points over the past year.

1) For fy2019(published March 2020), they announced a huge increase in debt provision to $22m from $2.8m.

2) H1-2020 (pub Sept 2020) - They announced a huge $30m loss for H1-2020.

3) Dec 2020 - The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.

4) Despite the huge increase in ad spending (US Elections, covid), their fy2020 adj EBITDA is lower than fy2019 and missed the Brokers expectations set in March 2020.

Debt provision increased substantially:
---------------------------------------------------
From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

$30m loss:
--------------
H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020.
$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
----------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

Adj ebitda is lower than previous year, revenue increase includes fy contributuon from Unruly, acquired only a yr ago, Jan 2020:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite the huge increase in ad spending, the fy contribution from Unruly (bought a yr ago, Jan 2020) they still failed to beat Finncap's March expectations. Their adj Ebitda is lower than their previous year, fy2019!

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

The TU figures in the TU are still below Finncap's expectations from 10 months ago.
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $20m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

Johnpearson,

They are usually end of March. Last year was on 31st March.

Magn are reporting 4th Qtr on 24th Feb.

Radium,

You're making a fool out of yourself.
Read your 1st question and my reply. You clearly don't understand how the business model, NHS or TLY, works.

Your question:
1. The private sector is to be taken back under Public control with the latest proposed NHS reforms.

What about the thousands of GPs/Nurses/Dentists etc working as self-employed?. The NHS was formed over 70 yrs ago and self-employment is an integral part of it.

"General practitioners, dentists, optometrists (opticians) and other providers of local health care are almost all self-employed, and contract their services back to the NHS. They may operate in partnership with other professionals, own and operate their own surgeries and clinics, and employ their own staff, including other doctors etc. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_Service_(England)

According to your Q1 all these thousands of self-employed Drs/Nurses/ etc, private providers are being brought back under NHS?
Who will pay for their pensions, holidays etc???

My answer hasn't changed, the news was expected. You will soon realise that it was expected and is nothing new.

Radium
"I have been around a very long time"

Have you, your profile was created just 3 weeks ago!!! lol..

"He will be out of here like a shot from a rifle while still posting supporting views on this bulletin board."
The article you mentioned WAS EXPECTED, so why would I sell????. The story hasn't changed. If the sp drops because people like you don't understand the business model then I will load up.

Radium,
The news was expected and those who know the business model and the way the NHS works, would understand it. I would suggest you do some research otherwise you'll end up making a fool of yourself.

Your questions:
Note…
1. The private sector is to be taken back under Public control with the latest proposed NHS reforms.

Are they? Taken back??
So all the locum drs, agency nurses, consultants working private/NHS, Dentists working private/NHS, cleaners, Ambulance drivers, NHS 111/999 contract staff will lose their jobs and contracts? Those thousands of staff working for private providers.
Are you sure?

Bradley/Geoff,
Sorry about Radium/Tricky following me to here from trmr. You probably not interested but they were holding rthm(blnx, now trmr) when the eq sp was £28 and blame the crash on the messenger rather than company/industry newsflow (I've mentioned then this afternoon on trmr thread).

Search "Sushovan Hussain", the guy who was behind IPO of Blnx.

Anyway back to TLY

" because stt will be sweating", no Bradley, I'm not sweating at all. The news was great and was expected.

Some people don't understand the model nor the NHS.

Read the article and look at the company/sector newsflow.
The proposals mentioned were already known and are so are nothing new, all part of the 2019 Long Term Plan, published nearly 2 yrs ago. The removing of competitive tenders was mentioned ages ago and TLY already started adapting to it by ensuring their CQC ratings are good, thereby any awarding of contracts on merit will benefit those providers, who have a history of delivering a good service.

Currently, there is a postcode lottery within the NHS, where one CCG might roll out a service but a neighbouring one will not due to costs.
With these proposals contracts should be rolled out covering larger areas and not just local CCGs. There were over 200 CCGs when they were formed a decade ago, there should be fewer authorities offering the Urgent care contracts.
I believe they bought GreenBrook Healthcare for this very reason.

Radium
" this is not good for Totally Plc "

In what way is it not good news for TLY? It's a simple question.
Obviously if you don't understand the business model or the article then you're just posting hot air.

I welcome bull/bear points, so please post your reasoning.

Why did you post the article on the TRMR thread?

It was mentioned 2 yrs ago.
In the meantime TLY have adapted quickly, they ensured their CQC rankings are good, so contracts based on merit is good news for TLY.

"Clinical Commissioning Groups should have the flexibility to commission services to suit local need, not to suit competitive tendering regulation and without the fear of having to pay out millions to private providers for falling foul of existing legislation, as has been the case in recent years.

When government rhetoric is centred around integration within the health service, independent providers bidding on time-limited contracts sits entirely at odds with this philosophy.

Only by removing the requirement to put service out to tender, can local systems work together to ensure cohesive patient-centred healthcare.

NHS England's ambitions here are clear, and we strongly recommend parliament take forward these proposals and push through these legislative changes."

https://practicebusiness.co.uk/changes-to-nhs-competition-rules-long-overdue-says-bma/

Radium,
"The system of contracts being put out to tender, with health groups sometimes competing against each other, would be scrapped."

That's excellent news for TLY and is not new.

Currently, there is too much red tape around awarding contracts.
They should be awarded on merit and TLY's CQC rankings show how they are doing.

In what way is it bad news for TLY?

And why are you posting the same on the Trmr thread, given Trmr is an ad tech company? lol

Trmr.
Facts - Bear points over the past year.

1) For fy2019(published March 2020), they announced a huge increase in debt provision to $22m from $2.8m.

2) H1-2020 (pub Sept 2020) - They announced a huge $30m loss for H1-2020.

3) Dec 2020 - The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.

4) Despite the huge increase in ad spending (US Elections, covid), their fy2020 adj EBITDA is lower than fy2019 and missed the Brokers expectations set in March 2020.

Debt provision increased substantially:
---------------------------------------------------
From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

$30m loss:
--------------
H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020.
$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
----------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

Adj ebitda is lower than previous year, revenue increase includes fy contributuon from Unruly, acquired only a yr ago, Jan 2020:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite the huge increase in ad spending, the fy contribution from Unruly (bought a yr ago, Jan 2020) they still failed to beat Finncap's March expectations. Their adj Ebitda is lower than their previous year, fy2019!

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

The TU figures in the TU are still below Finncap's expectations from 10 months ago.
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $20m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

In other words:

What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?

Look at rthm, now merged with trmr:
Rthm was at eq sp of 580p 4 yrs ago, just after the previous US Elections in 2016. The sp rose because of bullish statements from rthm Bod.

Despite those bullish statements, just 2 yrs later, Rthm merged with TAP(now Trmr), in 2019 at about 1/3 sp of 2017.

6 months later, Trmr then issued a profit warning, citing the industry challenges.
I and others had been warning of Industry challenges since 2017.

Trmr Interims Sept 2019:
Profit warning,
closing several rthm operations,
Still being affected by Industry Challenges,

The profit warning from the company themselves, is there in black and white - AS EXPECTED.

" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "

The closing of rthm's operations - rthm operations not so good then?
"Several of RhythmOne's products have been discontinued alongside its demand-side platform ("DSP"). The development of RhythmOne's data management platform ("DMP) has also been taken in-house. This initiative created an operational challenge for management, however they believe the decision will markedly benefit the company in the medium-term. The reduced development, maintenance and data centre costs form part of the wider initiative to streamline the Company's operations."

Industry Challenges continues to affect trmr - AS EXPECTED

"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability. "

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/interim-results/201909240700083776N/

Ad tech has a history of questionable events/court cases/investigations - industry challenges.

Rusty/gdog,

"Happy with the stake I hold and happy to salvage whatever I can, after writing it off, in the dark days of blinky."

That's the point.
A lot of the regulars on here bought when blnkx(now rthm, merged with trmr) were at eq sp of £28 in Jan 2014 before the sp crashed. Many were also holders when 4 yrs ago, rthm eq sp was 580p, before the sp crashed to 100p due to industry challenges/questionable events.

If the lth think trmr is grossly undervalued and should be comparable to t to Magnite or TTD then why not load up, sit back, ignore the bear points and wait for the rewards?
Unless those who held blnx at eq sp of £28 are hoping newbies buy in, sp goes up and therefore help reduce their losses... If they think the sp won't crash again then why not load up at 500p+++
After all the sp, broker targets, broker notes are similar to 4 yrs ago, just after the previous US Election. Unless the lth think the sp might crash again!!!!

Why not counter the bull/bear points and discuss company/industry instead of personal attacks?

I would respect poster's opinions if they state that they are loading up at 500p++ and will hold for the next 2 yrs.
If they can't then why should newbies?

This article comments on what ex-Chief Operating Officer of rthm(now merged with trmr) was saying a couple of years ago. (This was soon after rthm/yume takeover in 2017. 4 months later in April 2019 rthm merged with tap to form trmr.) The article was also published a yr after P&G, the largest advertiser, demanded transparency within ad tech eco-system, leading to significant industry challenges.

Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...

"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.

"Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. While advertisers continue to demand transparency of their partners downstream even going so far as to hold budgets hostage, consumers who have enjoyed positive, emotional connections with their brands online are at risk of turning off due to privacy concerns. Stakeholders will expect even greater clarity and accountability in the quality of the online platforms and content that they invest behind."

Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."

http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/

Tricky/Eddie/Bald/gdog,

Given you are bullish, are you loading up big time at 500p+++ and holding for a few years, like you did when rthm(now part of trmr) also rose after the previous US Election, to around 580p, new money (50p, old money)? The sp, brokers targets, news on back of US Election are all similar.

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:
1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:
1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.