Member Info for stt1

FrankelselUK
"Tremors board is more like an old people's home than a forum to advance knowledger . To get the best posters the content needs to be relevant."

Absolutely.
Obviously, some posters on here prefer readers to invest in a black box blindfold.

Happy New Year posters!!

Is it a coincidence that Ofer sold ONE day before the court decision on buy backs. It seems too much of a coincidence to me. The court authorised the buy back for 6 months.
Selling 1/3 or 700k (£2.3m) worth is a huge amount to sell, given the company broker posted a target price of 700p just a few days ago.
Ofer selling £2.3m sends wrong messages.

Yesterday: rns Ofer sells
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

Today: Court decision on buy backs, valid for 6 months
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Share-Buyback-and-Dividend-Distribution-Update.pdf

FlyingHorse,
"CEO chooses to sell 700k on the day court ruling is announced"

That was exactly my point in my post from yesterday.
Ofer sold ONE DAY before the court decision on buy backs was announced.
Seems too much of a coincidence to me.

court decision on dividend or whether to allow more buy backs due 45-60days.
Court date 4th November.
Currently, 42 days gone, so decision due within the next week or so.

Is it a coincidence that Ofer has sold only days before the court decision on dividend or continuing buy backs?

"The Company expects the Israeli court to take approximately 45-60 days to reach a decision and will provide an update if and when court approval is obtained and if the board elects to commence a share repurchase programme or dividend distribution of any quantum."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/TRMR-Dividend-Distribution-and-Share-Buyback-051120.pdf

Max
"The CEO has history of selling and he did sell few times in last 2 years and a lot cheaper."

So did previous rthm CEO's. Remember BM/SC selling in 2012/13 before the big crash in 2014.

The interesting point is we're 2 weeks from fyend.

Stevie,
"maybe he sold to let someone in"
I doubt it. The CEO knows the company well and has just sold a 1/3 of his holding., over £2.3m worth!!
Doesn't inspire confidence.

Max,
"small price to pay in order to draw a line on this unwanted uncertainty...."

Not really... Trmr were confident, said the case has no merit, had minimal impact and yet still paid $1.7m to settle. That's a huge amount to pay given they were going to aggresively defend the claims.

Posters were saying that Uber has a history of having their cases thrown out of court, so why bother settling? I think they settled to clear the way for M&A.

I think the settlement of the Uber court case has similarities to rthm/DataXu.
Rthm were confident they would win, yet they settled just before the merger with TAP, now Trmr. Rthm were then broken up with several operations closed down.

I think with both Rthm & Trmr Tosca pushed for a settlement.
There are significant industry challenges like big advertisers using fewer SSPs and DSPs. No one needs a court case hanging over them as it damages reputation with potential customers and can cause problems with M&A.

rthm/DataXu
https://adexchanger.com/online-advertising/rhythmone-dataxu-tussel-unpaid-bills-hidden-fees/

rthm/DataXu court action..
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/22028832/RhythmOne_LLC_v_DataXu,_Inc

TAP (ex Trmr) say there's no merit in Uber claims, not material in terms of revenue and will defend it aggresively, so why settle?

"The group pointed out that the revenue associated with the Uber campaign directly relating to the company does not represent a material portion of Taptica's revenue."

"The company reiterated that it considers the Uber claims to be without merit and, as such, Taptica Ltd. and Taptica, Inc. will aggressively defend against them."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/221954/taptica-provides-background-on-uber-lawsuit-says-considering-further-share-buy-back-programme-221954.html

"The settlement seeks to resolve the matter in a timely manner and avoid the expense and burden associated with a litigation process, Tremor said. The payment will result in the full dismissal of the case, the company said."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/uber-lawsuit-settlement/202012140700084658I/

Looking at the interims from last week:

For H1, they increased sales by only £4.5m compared to H1 2020 (£6.7m compared to £2.2m) and adj Ebitda only increased by £800k, £1.2m (H1 2020 £0.4m)

The world experience the biggest pandemic to hit in 100yrs. However, the sales/profit haven't increased as I would have expected. The huge demand for santiser would have been during the early months of the pandemic, so sales should have been significant during H1.

Vaccines are being rolled out so I expect demand for product sales will decrease over the next year.

Turtle Wax, Move Clean:
They announced the trial at Target in May 2018 and it ended in March 2020, after nearly 2 years. The Turtle Wax, Move Clean, is also a trial where the data won't be known for months or even more than a year.

£30m mcap - I think there's a lot of jam tomorrow already factored in!!

From interims:
revenues £6.7m(£2.2m) fy £6.1m
GP £2.3m (£0.9m)
adj Ebitda £1.2m (£0.4m)

https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/H1-2021-1.7.pdf

TurtleWax Shell partnership, Move Clean, is a trial in selective markets . It will be some time, possibly over a year, before the results of that trial will be known. The Target trial took nearly 2yrs and eventually ended in March this year.
Covid vaccine is being rolled out so the question is whether it's too little too late.

"Move Clean solutions are piloting in select markets in the US and will be available through key transportation partners, including participating Shell gas stations in the coming months. "

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/shell-lubricants-us-and-turtle-wax-inc-announce-collaboration-with-move-clean-to-launch-total-vehicle-hygiene-services-for-the-automotive-industry-301172004.html

SiiTDoown,
"average down..to around 45p." since 2013 was stuck with a paper loss of 75%. As of now it’s only a paper loss of 4%"

You must have calculated wrongly.
45p old money is equivalent to 530p in today's money(rthm was 10-1 consolidation then 28/33 merger with Tap).
Current sp is 330p so still 200p to reach 530p. Not sure where you got 4% from?.

ArthurTurner,
"Interesting looking at the Unruly website, I think the turn around is definitely being driven by their inclusion."

Good to see someone actually discussing the merits or otherwise of Trmr or the ad tech industry.
Thank you.

Malbright,
Well done on returning to profit.

"BUT all is now changed The Jam tomorrow has arrived yesterday and looks like it might develop into a full blown cream cake by end of next year."

I don't agree. Have a read of the TU, the revenues increased significantly during Oct/November. So during the US Election campaign, when ad tech was the highest in history.

There are no US Elections for another 4 yrs.

" Revenues generated across October and November 2020 were the highest in the Company’s history. Overall, it is anticipated that the Company will now achieve 37-43% revenue growth in the second half of 2020, compared to H2 2019."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/TRMR-Trading-Statement-301120.pdf

Given the recent newsflow, I think they are preparing for M&A or a placing. In 2018, rthm cancelled their premium share account and announced dividends, just before they announced their merger with Taptica, which went through at rthm sp of 169.9p.

wouterius
"even though they turned out to be as irrelevant"

So my posts over the past 3 yrs on GDPR and the industry challenges WERE NOT irrelevant, as can be seen by the latest news on GDPR and the company's own results

btw Wouterius,
The current sp of 300p is equivalent of 254p for rthm.
That is 25.4p old money, pre consolidation and still 50% lower than rthm sp were 3.5yrs ago (rthm 50p old money, 589p current equivalent), when I was warning about the industry challenges which will hit the industry in 2018 onwards.

The same Industry Headwinds that the company themselves warned about only last year, 2 yrs after my warnings.
;-)

"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability"
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/TRMR-Interim-Results_Final-240919.pdf

wouterius,
"How do you feel about GDPR nowadays? "

Last year the authorities worked with the ICO, which represents ad tech industry to ensure they comply with GDPR law.
Now the authorities are taking action against ICO.
Did you expect the authorities to take action against ad tech companies on 26th May 2018, 1 DAY after it became effective? Really?

Don't forget CCPA (Californian Consumer Protection Act) only became effective from 1st July 2020, so expect to hear more from that in the coming months.
Do keep up!!
;-)

6th November so less than a month ago:
Legal action brought against ICO over alleged Adtech GDPR breaches

https://gdpr.report/news/2020/11/06/legal-action-brought-against-ico-over-alleged-adtech-gdpr-breaches/

California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA): What you need to know to be compliant

https://www.csoonline.com/article/3292578/california-consumer-privacy-act-what-you-need-to-know-to-be-compliant.html

Comparing their current update with their March 31st forecasts, before their forecasts were significantly reduced due to covid..

How are they doing against the broker expectations from 8 months ago, March???
They reduced expectations significantly in June and since have increased them but still lower than 8 months ago.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $390-$400m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $50-52m, DOWN $25m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

From their TU:
"Revenues generated across October and November 2020 were the highest in the Company's history. "

Hardly surprising given the huge amount of money spent during the close run US Election. There's no US Election for another 4 yrs.

"Overall, it is anticipated that the Company will now achieve 37-43% revenue growth in the second half of 2020, compared to H2 2019."

They acquired Unruly in Jan 2020, so this year they will have a full contribution from Unruly, compared to nothing last year.

Tricky
"Magnite (SSP) was only formed in 2020, from Rubicon and Telaria,"

I mentioned both Rubicon and Telaria indivually, didn't I - perhaps have another go at twisting the post? lol They are mentioned in that article I posted in 2018 as the ones to watch, the ones doing well and they both merged. Trying to suggest there is a read across from The Trade Desk or Telaria/Rubicon without actually recognising that they themselves state the reasons for their success is because of their one-sided approach.

Tremor reasons for selling their DSP.. perceived conflict of interest
"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

"Rubicon Project stopped charging buyers, mainly after being sued by the Guardian"
There was a move to removing opaque fees. Rubicon reached an amicable agreement with The Guardian and moved forward. Many ad tech companies have removed opaque fees after the largest advertiser, P&G demand transparency - another point I repeated as a challenge.

Rubicon pubilically declared they had reached an amicable solution to their dispute over opaque fees. I haven't seen anything similar from Rthm/Dataxu over their court case. In fact their court case came to an abrupt end soon after Singer took over in 2018, a few months before he put the company up for sale.

rthm/DataXu
https://adexchanger.com/online-advertising/rhythmone-dataxu-tussel-unpaid-bills-hidden-fees/

rthm/DataXu court action..
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/22028832/RhythmOne_LLC_v_DataXu,_Inc

Rubicon/Guardian pubically state their mutual agreement..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-guardian-and-ad-tech-vendor-rubicon-project-settle-legal-dispute-1539348209

The fact is the model used by Tremor is different from the one used by The Trade Desk etc for the reasons stated.

Spending review this week.
£3bn, for England, towards reducing NHS backlog.

£3bn for NHS, of which £1bn towards NHS backlogs in England. £500m towards Mental Health services.
TLY's diversified business should benefit from money towards NHS backlog and Mental Health Services.

£3bn for NHS but Sunak warns of 'economic shock' to come

Where will the £3bn go?
- £500m will support mental health services in England
- £1bn will go towards reducing NHS backlogs, with up to one million extra checks, scans and operations paid for
- £1.5bn will be used to ease existing pressures in the health service

"The extra funding only applies to England but Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive equivalent funding."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55032782

£500m towards Mental Health

Chancellor to announce £500m for mental health
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55031444

It's not a coincidence that the 3 companies, The Trade Desk, Magnite and Roku were mentioned 2-3 yrs ago by me as future success stories . They have a single sided approach to the ad tech eco-system. Rthm operated a full stack, which trmr are now doing. Rthm had a history of making loses.
Telaria demerged out of Tremor when they were Taptica because customers were uneasy about ad companies offering both sides of the ad tech eco system.

3 Ad-Tech Stories You Need to Know This Week
Telaria continues its sell-side turnaround journey
Since parting ways with its buy-side operations through the sale of Tremor Video to Taptica,
https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/3-ad-tech-stories-you-need-to-know-this-week-4/