Member Info for stt1

"the markets call sentiment"

and it is sentiment which is driving the sp higher. It is sentiment which drove the .com bubble. Sentiment is fickle, it can change on flip of a coin.

Best read the company/sector newsflow.

The crucial point about this morning's new contract is exactly that, it's a NEW contract.
New contracts were halted during the 1st lockdown. Now this is evidence that new contracts are being awarded again within Planned Care.

TLY has 3 divisions, Urgent Care, Planned Care and Insourcing.

Urgent Care (NHS 111, Walk in Centres) Division. NHS 111 has been at the forefront to tackle covid. It's the 1st port of call. The plan for NHS 111 was to ease pressure on A&E waiting times. NHS 111 is now firmly on the public's minds as the 1st port of call so going forward this should help with better contracts.
Insourcing. Because of the huge waiting lists, Insourcing should grow significantly over the next 2-3 years at least.
Planned Care. As can be seen from this morning's new contract, this division should continue to grow.

Fy end is 31st March and so I'd expect a TU early April.

Cavendish bought 15m shares, 8.12%, at 10p in the placing when TLY bought GBH, in June 2019.
They have more than tripled their money in 18months, so it's not surprising they have been selling down.

https://www.totallyplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Totally-plc-Admission-Document-31-May-2019.pdf

Winstanley
"I tend to go on gut feeling"

There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's your money.
I sometimes buy on gut feeling.

Winstanley
"Trying to view all posts with open mind is sometimes difficult because we all want to do well out of this"

Confirmation bias.
Sometimes you need to sit back and re-assess the company.

"Although most of the businesses knowledge expressed is above my understanding,"

How do Trmr and other ad tech companies make their money?
Understanding the company business model and the sector goes a long way to understanding the pros and cons.

Read the company/sector newsflow.

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

Look at the chart for US Ad Tech companies, eg Magn, The Trade Desk etc from Nov.
Look at the chart for Trmr.

I think Trmr is rising on the back of the ad tech bubble and not anything Trmr specific.
On the back of the hotly contested US Elections, which saw the biggest ad spend ever and covid. No US Election for another 4 yrs.

Trmr:
https://www.google.com/search?q=tremor+international+share+price+historical&oq=tremor+international+share+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j69i59j0i324i457j0l2j69i60l3.12167j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Magn:
https://www.google.com/search?q=magnite+share+price+history&oq=magnite+share+price+history&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30i457.9607j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Tricky,

Given your very bullish Trmr future, are you backing yourself and loading up at 500p+++ and holding them for the next 2 yrs?.
Can you please confirm?

Tricky,
Re-read my post. You've read my previous posts, haven't you? If you haven't, have a read, it's all there.
I've mentioned investigations into ad tech over the past 2-3yrs. These will continue and, covid depending, should hit ad tech this year.

Bear point to add.
Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid.
RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

GDPR/CCPA privacy concerns should hit more this year.

gdog
"especially concerning CTV and cord cutting. (This also includes killing off weaker competitors in our space, and future consolidation in the space.)"

That's 4 yrs old and was mentioned by me as industry challenges in 2017, it was the consequences of Methbot fraud and P&G demands for transperancy.

When P&G, the biggest advertiser demands changes, companies either adapt or die.
Hence the reason Telaria & Rubicon merged.

Telaria demerged from trmr because of lack of transparency - clients perceived conflict of interest. Telaria then merged with Rubicon.

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/
As expected then.
;-)

Telaria, Rubicon and The Trade Desk have been advocates of transparency.

Magnite (Telaria & Rubicon) & The Trade Desk:

3 Ad-Tech Stories You Need to Know This Week

- The Trade Desk continues to profit from its point of differentiation
- Rubicon Project is still smarting from dropping its buy-side fees
- Telaria continues its sell-side turnaround journey

https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/3-ad-tech-stories-you-need-to-know-this-week-4/

SNN/Tricky

"SP is still less than 10 times forward 2021 earnings. Keep buying!"

Can you please confirm that you both are going to keep loading up at 500p++ and hold for another 2 yrs?
Otherwise, why should anyone else?

I think it's best to trade them as US Ad tech is a bubble.

CTV has been around for years, it's nothing new.

Rthm been offering it for years, Yume offered it for a decade.

It didn't stop rthm/yume takeover and subsequent merger with trmr, valuing rthm at only $175m..

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170920005192/en/The-Future-of-TV-is-Connected-YuMe-Launches-Cross-Platform-Connected-TV-SDK

Sizmek:
Sizmek were also offering CTV and had millions in cash but the concerns over the ad tech model and industry challenges hit them hard and they filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy.

Sizmek files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy amid programmatic challenges
"The news of the bankruptcy filing underscores a growing sense of uncertainty surrounding the ad-tech ecosystem — and the challenges facing independent operators trying to compete against the tech giants. Growing concerns around brand safety and transparency have introduced an air of caution around programmatic"

https://www.marketingdive.com/news/sizmek-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-amid-programmatic-challenges/551701/

Metis,
" with trading in the month of December at a record high and materially exceeding the Company's expectations."

Yes, during the US Election. I don't think anybody was expecting Trump to continue to aggressively contest the election result to the extent he did. Events like that are perfect for advertisers. There's no US Election for a further 4 yrs.

Trmr's expectations.
Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower. I was expecting adj Ebitda to be significantly higher than fy2019, especially given the surge in ads due to US Elections and supposedly the huge increase in CTV.

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes full year contribution from Unruly.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

There is no US Election for another 4 yrs and covid lockdowns will be eased as we go through the year.
They bought Unruly at the beginning of 2020, so there was no revenue contribution from them in fy2019 but will be virtually a full year's contribution in fy2020. Unruly revenue was $43m 6 months before being acquired by Trmr.

The TU figures in the TU are still below Finncap's expectations from 10 months ago.

Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $20m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

"Unruly generated £43.5 million ($57 million) in revenue and an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization loss of £8.8 million pounds ($11.6 million) in the 12 months until June 30. Tremor said in Monday’s announcement that Unruly is expected to “positively contribute to adjusted EBITDAâ€? in 2021"

https://digiday.com/media/paltry-price-paid-unruly-rattles-consolidating-ad-tech-market/#:~:text=Unruly%20generated%20%C2%A343.5%20million,12%20months%20until%20June%2030.

Eddie,
" I moved to profit months ago."
Did you sell out months ago or are you continuing to hold them all?

Facts - Over the past year.

For fy2019(published March 2020), they announced a huge increase in debt provision to $22m from $2.8m.

H1-2020 (pub Sept 2020) - They announced a huge $30m loss for H1-2020.

Dec 2020 - The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:
Note 16B (2)

"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago
$30m loss

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

PIXALATE RANKING: Seller Trust rankings.
Rthm(trmr) no longer no1.

For CTV, on Roku/Samsung, Magnite(Telaria) have a higher trust ranking than rthm(Trmr).
Telaria demerged from Trmr(when it was TAP). Now part of Magnite.

Q1 - 2020 - CTV
ROKU
Telaria (ex TremorDSP, now merged Magnite) 1st/10
RhythmOne 9th/10, down 4.

SAMSUNG
Rhythmone 10th/10

https://www.pixalate.com/sellertrustindex/video/#!Samsung

When they were ranked no.1 - From Trmr rns 11th Oct 2019:
"Pixalate's Seller Trust Indexes are the worldwide standard in programmatic advertising quality ratings. The indexes evaluate and rank the quality and integrity of advertising networks and sellers across all channels, platforms and devices using data from billions of transactions. Companies are then ranked on transparency, viewability, ads.txt and engagement amongst other factors."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/TRMR-RhythmOne-Tops-Pixalate%E2%80%99s-Global-Mobile-and-Video-Trust-Indexes.pdf

Eddie,
I was expecting the sp to move up. It's called following the US Ad tech bubble.

Are you backing your conviction and loading up at 500p+++ and holding onto them?
You won't reply nor load up and hold because you know they are in a bubble.

Can you please post the bull points for all newbies to read?

bald,

Keep buying... Are you loading up at 500p+++ ?

The CEO sold 700k shares in Dec!!

Eddie,
Are you backing your conviction still loading up at 500p+++ or hoping to break even on the rthm shares you bought all the way down from eq sp of £28(new money)?

There are several on here who held when rthm(now merged with trmr) were at eq sp of £28(235p old money), 7 years ago and want to recover their paper losses.

TLY operates 3 subsidiaries, Urgent Care, Planned Care and Insourcing.

These figures upto fy2019 are without Insourcing (the division was setup in Oct 2019) contribution and only a small contribution towards fy2020 and H1-2021. For H1-2021, Insourcing and Planned Care didn't contribute for the full half, as they were stopped for most of during Q1, due to the 1st lockdown.
(The figures do include acquisitions)

Last 5 years:
period revenue, cash, profit/loss
2015 £0.6m, £0.4m, £0.4m
2016 £4m, £1m, £1.4m
2017 £21.3m, £11.3m, £5.6m
2018 £42m, £10.2m, £0.2m
2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m

H1-2021 (Sept 2020)
revenue: £54m(H1-2020 £49m),
Gross profit: £10.2m(£9.8m)
Ebitda £2.3m (£1.3m)
Cash £12.3m (March 2020 £8.9m)

Gross margins up
Paying dividends.

Interims H1-2021:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xl6lo3x

This was their Investor presentation from November..
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/totally-plc/register-investor

The scsw article may result in further sp rising with traders coming in then out but look at the facts.

Facts - Over the past year.

For fy2019(published March 2020), they announced a huge increase in debt provision to $22m from $2.8m.

H1-2020 (pub Sept 2020) - They announced a huge $30m loss for H1-2020.

Dec 2020 - The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)

"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf