Member Info for stt1

Dynaheir
" They’re carrying a very large amount in liabilities but they have zero debt"

Wendy/Lisa, CEO and CFO, explained those.
Due to covid, HMRC introduced VAT deferral. Amongst other payments, Tly took advantage of VAT deferral (0% interest).
They have zero debt.

Remember the company's broker's, Finncap, current target is 800p, which is only slightly above the current sp.

Read the posts.
There are several posters who have sold out or are looking to sell out when they reach BREAK-EVEN. As they looking for break-even, they obviously were holding at higher prices.

There are some PIs who were holding blnx(now rthm) when their eq sp was £28 in Jan 2014. ie Those who held from Autonomy days or bought pre-2014.
They are also several posters, who were holding rthn when the eq sp was 590p in 2017.

Blnx/Rthm: Rthm now merged with trmr
In 2013-14, the blnx sp quadrupled, from eq 760p to £28 on back of bullish comments, video is everything etc and then crashed 60% on the back of questionable EVENTS.

In 2016-17, previous US Election, rthm eq sp tripled from eq 188p to 589p on bullish comments before crashing due to EVENTS/industry challenges. As expected.

Currently, the sp has risen on bullish comments. Trmr reduced expectations significantly in June and then published TU showing expectations were higher than the 'reduced' expectations. They still below the original fy2020 expectations set in March, following last year's results.

All they have done is significantly reduce expectations half way through the year then increase them on the 'reduced' expectations, following the hotly contested US Elections/covid.
There is no US Election for another 4 yrs.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Fact:
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $400m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.mm, now $60m, DOWN $15m

Adj EBITDA:
Despite the huge increase in CTV, their adj EBITDA is still lower than fy2019!!

Revenues:
Their fy2020 revenue has only increased by around $80m. However, it includes a full year contribution from Rthm and Unruly, whereas fy2019 there was only 8months and none, respectively.

period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

Currently, the NHS proposals are currently for NHS England only.

If the other UK nations follow then I think it will be fantastic news for TLY.

The news was expected and is great for TLY.
It shows that TLY are in the right place, at the right time.

I previously mentioned Methbot fraud in 2017, following which a lot of advertisers/publishers reduced the number of players they were using within ad tech ecosystem.

As the ex-COO of rthm(now merged with trmr) said a couple of years ago, "Fraud follows the money".

For someone who worked within ad tech as a Chief Operating Officer for years, he would know what goes on.

It seems he was right.

Look at the CTV fraud discovered since Dec.

"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.
Fraud Follows the Money
http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/

Fraud discovered recently

Doubleverify have discovered more CTV fraud. This is likely to call for another round of calls for transparency and possible pulling back of CTV spending by advertisers, as it did in 2017.

CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m

"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme named ParrotTerra is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."

The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."

https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-fraud-scheme-costs-up-to-50m/

Oracle Exposes Largest CTV Ad Fraud Operation Ever

https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-exposes-ctv-ad-fraud-operation-121720.html#:~:text=The%20StreamScam%20operation%20exploited%20flaws,3%2C400%20unique%20CTV%20device%20models.

Following the Methbot fraud, a lot of companies with ad tech ecosystem had to adapt, evolve or die.

As an example, Sizmek, also offered CTV, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
https://digiday.com/media/tip-ice-berg-sizmek-saga-spells-trouble-ad-tech/

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and will burst. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:

1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud

3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major negative newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

Monty
"8 million shares sounds a lot but it is just under £150K in cash terms. I don't expect that to do much damage even if Gill is keen to sell."

The current sp is around the level it was around July last year before it fell back down to 1p level. During July there was a 10milion sell, which was stated by some as being behind the fall.

There was also a placing at 1.5p early July and the sp fell back shortly after . The question is whether those who took part in the 1.5p placing will take the opportunity to take profits.

Bear point - lower Pixalate ranking.

Pixalate - Seller Trust rankings.

"Pixalate delivers the only Fraud Management System that mitigates your risk exposure with accredited anti-fraud solutions across display, in-app, video and OTT/CTV."
"Pixalate is the first and only data platform with a comprehensive suite of products specifically built to bring transparency to programmatic advertising. Pixalate monitors hundreds of billions of ad events in real time by tapping into the global RTB data stream, providing insights to optimize performance, benchmark supply quality, and eliminate fraud.
Together, we’re raising the bar for RTB."
https://www.pixalate.com/about/

Telaria demerged from trmr(when TAP) because of perceived conflict of interest.

Is it a coincidence that Magnite are buying SPOTX because they have a high Pixalate ranking, given Magnite have advocated transparency within Ad Tech eco system?

The Pixalate rankings also have Pubmatic, Telaria(now Magnite), Rubicon(now Magnite), SpotX(bought by Magnite) higher than Rthm(now trmr).

Pixalate rankings. Seller Trust rankings.
Rthm(trmr) no longer no1.

For CTV, on Roku/Samsung, Magnite(Telaria) have a higher trust ranking than rthm(Trmr).
Telaria demerged from Trmr(when it was TAP). Now part of Magnite.

***************************************************************************
Q1 - 2020 - CTV - ROKU
Telaria (ex TremorDSP, now merged Magnite) 1st/10
Pubmatic 4th/10
SPOTX 5th/10th
Rubicon 6/10
RhythmOne 9th/10, down 4.

************************************************************************
CTV - SAMSUNG
SPOTX 2nd/10
Telaria 4th/10
Rhythmone 10th/10

https://www.pixalate.com/sellertrustindex/video/#!Samsung

The 4 companies mentioned in that article: Pubmatic, Magnite, The Trade Desk, AcuityAds.

Magnite was formed from the merger of Telaria & Rubicon. Telaria was demerged from trmr (when it was Taptica) and now have merged with Rubicon to form Magnite.

Why did Telaria demerge Trmr?

Telaria (Magnite) reasons for selling their TremorDSP.. perceived conflict of interest

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

****************************************************************************

The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that THEIR ONE SIDED approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

******************************************************************************************

Pubmatic are also ONE SIDED model, they are an SSP:
https://pubmatic.com/about-us/

I always take any tipsheet or broker recommendations with a huge pinch of salt. Always do your own research, read the company/sector news, verify anything published/posted.
Tipsheets/brokers get some right, some wrong.

Events, company/sector news decide the future direction.

Eg. During the .com boom, they say on their website https://www.scsw.co.uk/

"In a world where the acid test is share-price performance... Baltimore Technologies... Sharewatch's main recommendation in December 1999... one subscriber claims to have made £2m."

However, just couple of months later .com boom turned to .com bust and just 3 months later Baltimore sp crashed.

"However, following the Stockmarket Crash of March 2000, its share price fell."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Technologies

I believe there is an ad tech bubble which will burst for the reasons I've stated.

Read the proposals. They were expected and are great news for TLY.

http://www.healthpolicyinsight.com/?q=node%2F1699

Where's the growth? They bought Unruly a year ago in Jan 2020, so revenues include contribution from them. The CEO sold a 1/3 of his holding in Dec, just 2 months ago.

With huge ad spend during the US Election and huge increase in CTV, why isn't there a huge increase in adj Ebitda. It's lower than fy2019!!!
There is no US Election for another 4 yrs.

Read the company accounts/newsflow.

fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals
Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower. I was expecting adj Ebitda to be significantly higher than fy2019, especially given the surge in ads due to US Elections and supposedly the huge increase in CTV.

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Finncap expectations
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

There is no US Election for another 4 yrs and covid lockdowns will be eased as we go through the year.
They bought Unruly at the beginning of 2020, so there was no revenue contribution from them in fy2019 but will be virtually a full year's contribution in fy2020. Unruly revenue was $43m 6 months before being acquired by Trmr.

The TU figures in the TU are still below Finncap's expectations from 10 months ago.

Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $20m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

Everyone should read the company/sector news and form their OWN opinion.

Kernowlad,
" will not be greedy if I can get near b/e. There are all sorts of things going on with targeted ads "

There seems to be quite a few posters who bought in or held at signficantly higher prices, either from blnx days at eq sp of £28 (Jan 2014), rthm @ 589p (Apr 2017), who have sold out recently after reaching break-even or are looking to once they reach break-even.
I think the lesson is to read all bull/bear points and not be swayed by posters to ignore anyone.

Blnx rose significantly to eq sp £28 in 2013 on the back of bullish comments but crashed to 400p in 2014 due to events.
In 2017 P&G demanded changes to ad tech following the Methbot fraud. Those demands led to significant industry challenges, including Privacy/Transparency. In 2016-17 Rthm eq sp rose to 580p on the back of bullish comments but fell back to around 100p by 2019 due to events.

I mentioned those bear points or Industry Challenges but they were discounted by several posters. I posted company/sector newsflow and often backed it up with links.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=RTHM&share=Rhythmone-Plc&page=21&thread=E243B640-A141-40CB-9FDB-2FA133731A88

In 2019, after rthm merged with Trmr, they published their interims, issued a profit warning, blamed those industry challenges and closed several rthm operations.

The profit warning from the company themselves, is there in black and white - AS EXPECTED.

" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "

The closing of rthm's operations - rthm operations not so good then? - AS EXPECTED

"Several of RhythmOne's products have been discontinued alongside its demand-side platform ("DSP"). The development of RhythmOne's data management platform ("DMP) has also been taken in-house. This initiative created an operational challenge for management, however they believe the decision will markedly benefit the company in the medium-term. The reduced development, maintenance and data centre costs form part of the wider initiative to streamline the Company's operations."

Industry Challenges continues to affect trmr - AS EXPECTED

"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability. "https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/TRMR-Interim-Results_Final-240919.pdf

To me, the current rise looks very similar to blnx 2013-14.

The lesson is to read bull/bear points and not be swayed by anyone trying to tell you to ignore them. It's your money.

Going forward, read the bull/bear points, check them out, read the links. It's your money. Other like the one's who sold or are planning to after several years, you'll be next to wait years.

kernowlad
"There are all sorts of things going on with targeted ads and the ability to track people across platforms at the moment"

Exactly. The investigations into ad tech Privacy, which were postponed due to covid and now resuming, the Privacy laws being drawn up around the world. Those industry challenges I warned about in 2017, when the rthm eq sp was 580p before it fell to 100p. Trmr H1-2019 interims warned about the industry challenges.

"“In May 2020, we paused our investigation into real time bidding (RTB) and the adtech industry, as we prioritised activities responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. We have now resumed our investigation."

https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/news-and-events/news-and-blogs/2021/01/adtech-investigation-resumes/

Data privacy legislations in 2020 and trends to watch out for in 2021

"Year 2020 saw a number of significant developments around data privacy legislations around the world. The pandemic-induced “new normal” has brought up new concerns around data privacy, making the case stronger for stringent data privacy laws in 2021."

"Interestingly, the past year also witnessed encouraging progress in this aspect. While Canada, Brazil, China and New Zealand introduced legislations on the lines of Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation, we also saw privacy find its way into COVID-19 related legislations in US Congress, including the COVID-19 Consumer Data Protection Act of 2020 in the Senate and the Public Health Emergency Privacy Act in the House. In a noteworthy event in November 2020, California citizens voted for amendments to the California Consumer Privacy Act and enacted a new statute, the California Privacy Rights Act. Currently, no other American state has a law as stringent as California, but around 30 states are working on legislations that contain at least some of the terms"

https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/data-privacy-legislations-in-2020-and-trends-to-watch-out-for-in-2021/

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

Facts over the past year.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy2020 Adj EBITDA lower than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44523916&from=4143&to=4143

Everyone should read the company/sector newsflow and form their own opinion. It's your money.

I will just say some of the recent posters on here held blnx at eq sp of £28, the sp crashed to 580p then 100p due to events, as I expected. Do a search for "sushovan Hussain" and "Zango wiki" and you're get the drift.

Further to my post about CTV fraud investigations. My 2nd point, as to why the ad tech bubble will burst...
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud within ad tech ecosystem.

In 2017, following the Methbot fraud discovery, P&G demanded transparency within ad tech, the consequences led to several industry challenges and advertisers pulling back spending.

Dan Slivjanovski has many years of working with ad tech and was ex-Chief Operating Officer of rthm, is now merged with trmr.

Doubleverify have discovered more CTV fraud. This is likely to call for another round of calls for transparency and possible pulling back of CTV spending by advertisers, as it did in 2017.

CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m

"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme – named ParrotTerra – is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."

"The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."

https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-fraud-scheme-costs-up-to-50m/

Tribalhound
"where your ISA provider permits"

Agree, that's an important point. Not all providers let you trade foreign shares. Years ago, I used to be with Barclays and they wouldn't allow me to hold US shares within my ISA. I don't know if they have changed their rules now.
Best check with your provider.

Backing up my point about an ad tech bubble. - previously quoted, industry challenges - privacy
Author's opinion of Ad tech bubble.

"For some time now, I have stated that I believe the second dot-com bubble would be the paid ads bubble. Prior to this change, I attributed things like ad fraud, ad blockers, lack of control over ad placement and messy attribution for why this bubble would burst. When you combine all those reasons with Apple’s announcement and the deprecation of third-party cookies, which will make ad targeting more difficult, I believe this will be the beginning of the burst of the paid ads bubble."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/02/10/what-apples-privacy-changes-mean-for-the-tech-industry/?sh=6e4c64ad6944

There's still nearly 8m shares to be dumped though.
It's usual for ex-employees to redeem their options, so expect to see the options dumped at some point.

The sp was around these levels last May, so the question is will Gill Leates look to seize the opportunity or hold?

"The 7,975,816 share options retained by Gill Leates are exercisable at 0.3 pence per share at any time between 3 December 2020 and 3 December 2022."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/react-group-plc/rns/board-changes/202012040944045958H/

If you hold US shares then you'd have to fill in a W8-Ben form but that's a simple to complete.

ISA's are tax free.

SNN,
If you this Motley Fool article regarding their concern:

"If you go and read any of Magnite's press releases when they report earnings, there's a little note there that I think is it's important for investors to know and understand.

That note says, "The year-over-year comparisons, as reported, reflect Rubicon Project only results from the prior year quarter. When these comparisons are referred to as pro forma, that Telaria results in the prior year period were added in order to provide additional detailed insights to the business performance."

Now, think about that, what they said was their revenue was up 69% year-over-year, just Rubicon, up 20% pro forma, Rubicon plus Telaria's results. The way that they're doing that gives me a little bit of concern. Again, I'm a Magnite shareholder, but I think investors should be watching because they're going to roll off of that Telaria acquisition here probably in another quarter.

Then we're not going to get those two numbers anymore, we're just going to get one number. That one number is not going to be the 69% number, it's going to be the lower number. I think if investors don't understand that that's the case, there is the potential that we could see the stock fall. I wanted to throw that out there."

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/10/magnite-builds-on-its-connected-tv-momentum-with-a/