Member Info for stt1

Gdog,
"This is about the GOOG announcement yesterday regarding cookies. "

The Google news about cookies was expected. It was one of the industry challenges, together with Apple's ITP, a couple of years ago. Look at my post about ad tech bubble bursting and point no 1 in my 3 reasons I think the ad tech bubble will burst.

dynaheir
"he's posting useful statements you use or refute."

Absolutely, post the bull/bear points and let readers decide for themselves. It's their money.
Counter the bear points and the bull case becomes stronger. Likewise, counter the bull case and the bear case becomes stronger.

The main bull case posted here is that I should be ignored, ie ignore the company figures, the company statements, the industry challenges. The other bull case is a 'read across' from US 'Peers' like Magnite are valued at higher multiples of revenue than Trmr!!

Several posters have been here for years and were holding blnx(now rthm, merged with Trmr) when the eq sp surged to £28 in 2014 on bullish comments and rthm eq sp 580p 4 yrs ago. On each occassion the sp fell based on events.
They like to quote the sp going up but get forgetful when it crashes.

Bull case: Magnite sp is going up:
Well look at Magnite, they were formed with the merger of Telaria and Rubicon.
Now Telaria was part of Trmr(when it was TAP). They demerged from trmr and joined forces with Rubicon, citing perceived conflict of interest as their reason. Trmr merged with rthm to continue to operate a full stack(both sides of the ad tech model).

So the bull case is a 'read across' from a company which demerged from trmr and merged with a competitor!! They operate a different model.

Telaria demerged from Trmr:
Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from Trmr(Tap).. perceived conflict of interest

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

"CEO's in a large businesses with a large market cap selling doesn't mean a lot."

Using the same company, Magnite, which is used as a bull point when the sp is rising.

Magnite's CEO sold $1.7m shares a week Tuesday ago when the sp was $61.
The sp closed down yesterday at $44.
So since the CEO sold her shares, the sp has fallen 27%!!

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni

The figures speak for themselves. Trmr has risen on the back of the interest in tech in USA, hence why I think there's the ad tech bubble. The same happened during the .com bubble, the

Why should they do any better for fy2021?

fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals:

Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower.
2020 includes full year contribution from Unruly(nil in 2019) and Rthm(8mnths in 2019):

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m) ** up $75m (inc full yr cont from Unruly/Rthm)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** LOWER than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m): Up $20m(includes Unruly/rthm)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Finncap expectations - compared to broker expectations set in March 2020:

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

previous year's results:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

dynaheir
"I’ve got to admit you guys have had an impressive run here"

Most of them have been here before and have reached the same eq sp rthm was 4 yrs ago. Some were here when, as blnx, the eq sp reached £28.

So quite a few have just about broken even or still at a loss.

Their gripe is that I warned about the industry challenges in 2017-18, when the rthm(now trmr) eq sp was 580p. They decided to hold on but blame me, the messenger, for the sp crashing from 580p to around 100p, yet it was the company who issued the profit warning - see their comments below.
Trmr have announced a $30m loss for H1, $22m debt provision and the CEO sold 700k shares recently(Dec).
I post the company/industry newsflow.

The sp has risen on the back of the US ad tech bubble.

Previous spikes on bullish comments, followed by sp crashing based on EVENTS:
*******************************************************************************
Rthm(ex blnx) now merged with trmr.

In 2013-14, the blnx sp quadrupled, from eq 760p to £28 on back of bullish comments, video is everything etc and then crashed 60% on the back of EVENTS.

In 2016-17, previous US Election, rthm eq sp tripled from eq 188p to 589p on bullish comments before crashing due to EVENTS/industry challenges.

Company statements:
**********************
In Apr 2019, rthm merged with trmr.
Just few months later:

The profit warning from the company themselves, is there in black and white - AS EXPECTED.

" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "

The closing of rthm's operations - rthm operations not so good then? - AS EXPECTED

"Several of RhythmOne's products have been discontinued alongside its demand-side platform ("DSP"). The development of RhythmOne's data management platform ("DMP) has also been taken in-house. This initiative created an operational challenge for management, however they believe the decision will markedly benefit the company in the medium-term. The reduced development, maintenance and data centre costs form part of the wider initiative to streamline the Company's operations."

Industry Challenges continues to affect trmr - AS EXPECTED

"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability. "

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/interim-results/201909240700083776N/

Google removing cookies from Chrome is old news. It was one of the industry challenges when
Apple announced they are doing away with cookies.

It was part of 1st point of my 3 reasons why the ad tech bubble will burst..

this from my post of 12th Feb:

"For some time now, I have stated that I believe the second dot-com bubble would be the paid ads bubble. Prior to this change, I attributed things like ad fraud, ad blockers, lack of control over ad placement and messy attribution for why this bubble would burst. When you combine all those reasons with Apple’s announcement and the deprecation of third-party cookies, which will make ad targeting more difficult, I believe this will be the beginning of the burst of the paid ads bubble."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/02/10/what-apples-privacy-changes-mean-for-the-tech-industry/?sh=6e4c64ad6944

Today's news is following on from the removal of cookies... privacy, GDPR/CCPA etc..

Radium

The proposals were leaked on 6th Feb, nearly 4 weeks ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55960355

Where's the evidence of wide spread selling on the back of the NHS proposals?
Then again, why would there be wide spread selling on the back of proposals, which were expected and are great for TLY?

Competitors eating into the ad tech pie.

Radium,
" Premier Miton Group Plc, David & Monique Newlands and Oryx International Growth Fund, have all been off-loading their holdings in Totally Plc of late, have they not?"

What do you think of the evidence as to why those IIs you mention sold some of their holdings?
Where's the evidence of wide spread selling on the back of the NHS proposals?
Then again, why would there be wide spread selling on the back of proposals, which were expected and are great for TLY?

The IIs you mention - They bought in the placing at 10p, 18months ago.

https://www.totallyplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Totally-plc-Admission-Document-31-May-2019.pdf

Miton:
*******
Miton bought in the placing at 10p 18months ago.
Miton were forced sellers and not because of any concerns over TLY's business or prospects..

Their reasons.
"To fund withdrawals, Williams has trimmed some of his holdings while selling out of others completely. The number of stocks in the portfolio has fallen from 89 at the end of May to 56 at the end of last year."
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/gervais-williams-insists-he-can-bounce-back-as-fund-shrinks-75/a1317959"

As at 31st Jan 2021, Totally is their FIFTH largest holding.
https://www.mitongroup.com/private/fund/miton-uk-microcap-trust-plc/

Newlands:
**********
Also bought in the 10p placing 18 months ago. They held 5.3% 18months ago.
They recently sold some at around 27p-30p, so nearly TREBLED their money.
They still hold 3.9%
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/rnppgkx

Harwood:
**********
In July 2020, 7 months ago, they increased their holding from 3.37% to 5.49% when the sp was around 16p.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xq12plw

They recently being trimming their holding and now hold 2.74%, which is about 0.5% below their holding from last July. The sp was around 32p-33p, so from last July, they have DOUBLED their money in about 7 months.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/w985ygr

From PSN's results.
Their completions were down 14% compared to fy2019, which is about right given the time HB's were closed during lockdown 1.

However, TW's were down nearly 40%(primarily due to shutdown in Q2), which is very high, given they were closed for only 7 weeks during Q2.

What other reasons would there be for the higher drop in completions compared to PSN?.

The budget will also include whether furlough, Stamp Duty hol has been extended, whether the Stamp Duty hol is being tapered. There should also be an indication of how the Chancellor plans to pay for the govn support, possible tax rises (CGT), which could affect affordability.

Magnite sp closed down again.
Today down 2.76%

Is last week's CEO sell of $1.7m still affecting sentiment?

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni

The Trade Desk down 4%.
Pubmatic down 3%

Krusty,
"Excellent news re the divi restoration"

The divi reinstatement was already expected.
The near 40% drop in completions(primarily due to Q2 closure) is high, given they were only closed for 7 weeks.

The cladding scandal started 3.5yrs ago, after Grenfell, so remedial action by all HBs has been too slow. They have responded now because of govn comments 3 weeks.

Budget on Wednesday.
Let's see what the Chancellor says about funding for the NHS and healthcare. Given the pandemic, there are going to be changes and we may get some idea tomorrow.

Magnite was down 20% last week, after their CEO sold $1.7m of shares.

They closed up 6.75% today.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni

Eddie
"Any luck with finding any friends to support you on BBs Stt1??"

I think it's always better if everyone do their own research. It's their money. Much better that way than a BB with 'friends' supporting each other, don't you think?

The dividend is already known - 3.8p. So it is already factored in.

With interest rates at all time lows, I think the govn is wrong to guarantee 95% mortgages. If buyers are mortgaged to the hilt then they are likely to suffer severely when interest rates rise.
A small rise, 0.5%, in interest rates would increase premiums by a huge amount.

If interest rates were high then a small rise can be easier to absorb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56218952

Look at the Pixalate rankings of Telaria(now Magnite), Pubmatic, SpotX compared to rthm(now trmr).

Bear point - lower Pixalate ranking.

Pixalate - Seller Trust rankings.

"Pixalate delivers the only Fraud Management System that mitigates your risk exposure with accredited anti-fraud solutions across display, in-app, video and OTT/CTV."
"Pixalate is the first and only data platform with a comprehensive suite of products specifically built to bring transparency to programmatic advertising. Pixalate monitors hundreds of billions of ad events in real time by tapping into the global RTB data stream, providing insights to optimize performance, benchmark supply quality, and eliminate fraud.
Together, we’re raising the bar for RTB."
https://www.pixalate.com/about/

Telaria demerged from trmr(when TAP) because of perceived conflict of interest.

Is it a coincidence that Magnite are buying SPOTX because they have a high Pixalate ranking, given Magnite have advocated transparency within Ad Tech eco system?

The Pixalate rankings also have Pubmatic, Telaria(now Magnite), Rubicon(now Magnite), SpotX(bought by Magnite) higher than Rthm(now trmr).

Pixalate rankings. Seller Trust rankings.
Rthm(trmr) no longer no1.

For CTV, on Roku/Samsung, Magnite(Telaria) have a higher trust ranking than rthm(Trmr).
Telaria demerged from Trmr(when it was TAP). Now part of Magnite.

***************************************************************************
Q1 - 2020 - CTV - ROKU
Telaria (ex TremorDSP, now merged Magnite) 1st/10
Pubmatic 4th/10
SPOTX 5th/10th
Rubicon 6/10
RhythmOne 9th/10, down 4.

************************************************************************
CTV - SAMSUNG
SPOTX 2nd/10
Telaria 4th/10
Rhythmone 10th/10

https://www.pixalate.com/sellertrustindex/video/#!Samsung

Telaria used to be part of Trmr(as Taptica). Telaria demerged from trmr and merged with Rubicon instead, to form Magnite.

Why did Telaria leave Trmr?

Telaria demerged from Trmr because the full stack model. Likewise, TTD don't run a full stack model because they don't see it works.
They are running different ad tech models to Trmr.

Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from Trmr.. perceived conflict of interest..

"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."

https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/

****************************************************************************

The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...

"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."

https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/

Tricky,
"The PDF you posted is a link to 2019 which shows a 37% better (ebitda ) than 2018."

Your twisting the point, as usual...

What part of the sentence don't you understand "Fy2020 comparison to last year 2019"???

Obviously the fy2019 results link will be posted to prove the my point - fy2020 adj ebitda from the TU is LOWER than last year, fy2019 adj ebitda. I'm sure you can post the fy2020 results link!!!!

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m) ** up $75m (inc full yr cont from Unruly/Rthm)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** LOWER than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m): Up $20m(includes Unruly/rthm)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

previous year's results:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly