Member Info for stt1

Always best to do your own research and form your own opinion.

I'm more than happy with my position here.
I countered all the points made by Eddie/Tricky/Radium (all of whom hold Trmr) and there is nothing they have said which concerns me, especially as the White Paper was expected and the proposals are great for TLY. Therefore, for me, the bull case is stronger.

Read the trmr today for yourselves. This is my 1st post today on any share. On trmr, every single post today is targeted at me, goading, lies and personal abuse!! Not a SINGLE post about trmr. Possibly because the sp is down!!
Therefore, it makes no difference if I post or not, even though they would like you to believe it is.

O/t Rthm(now trmr) was at eq sp of £28 7 yrs ago and some are still underwater. The shares fell due to questionable events, court cases, placings. Hiding bear points doesn't make the facts go away.
Here's one poster who claims they have been in blnx(now trmr) for last 8 yrs and needs 875p(750p yest + 125p) just to break even. In Jan 2014, rthm(blnx) were at eq sp around £28, compared to the 700p today!!

BBs are better for everyone if posters stick to the company refrain from personal abuse.

SNN,
"Pixalate has named Unruly as the number 1 direct CTV supply partner"

Your list which showed Unruly as Roku's no1 partner.

This list gives another prospective - a list of ad exchanges and their reach using adstxt.com. Marketers typically use more than 1 ad exchange, middlemen, for their programmatic but over the last 3-4 yrs fewer middlemen have been used. DSPs/SSPs partner with each other, hence why trmr changed to report net revenue figures.

Look at the list of ad exchanges. You'll see RhythmOne at no12 behind districtm.io

Ad exchanges, DSPs/SSPs partner with each other some lots of duplication occurs..

"The total market is about 900k different domains and there is huge overlap — i.e. more than one exchange selling ad inventory from each publisher. "

"The exchanges are all “interoperable” which means any bid for any ad slot is available through multiple supply paths at any given time. Marketers should do themselves a favor and eliminate as many ad tech middlemen as possible and shorten the supply path as much as possible to reduce costs and the risk of fraud."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/augustinefou/2021/03/23/how-much-reach-do-marketers-think-they-get-in-programmatic/?sh=6145c6672537

TLY operate a diversified business model which consists of 3 divisions:

The proposals are to integrate the services and TLY already operate that business model. The proposals are for England only.
The proposals were expected and are great for TLY. The sooner they are implemented the sooner TLY will benefit.

TLY operates a diversified business across 3 divisions:
1) Urgent Care - NHS 111, Urgent Care Centres/Walk in Centres etc
2) Planned Care - Physio, Dermatology, Referral management etc.
3) Insourcing - Helping to reduce the long waiting lists for ops in all 4 UK Nations and Ireland.

Urgent Care
During pandemic, NHS 111 has been promoted by Govn/NHS as the 1st port of call.
For years, both Tory & Labour govns have wanted to reduce A&E waiting and help the NHS save money. NHS 111 was to support that goal by pushing patients to call NHS 111 instead of clogging up A&E with non-emergency conditions.
Covid has pushed NHS 111 to the forefront of everyone's minds.
Going forward, new contracts will start to roll out again and I think these will be on better terms for NHS 111 providers.

Insourcing
Insourcing. Only setup in Oct 2019, few months before pandemic and was already growing strongly before covid hit. Millions of ops have been postponed due to covid and this backlog will have to be reduced by using insourcing.
Insourcing division operate in all 4 UK nations and Republic of Ireland. The govn proposals are for England only. There are over 4m on the waiting lists in England alone and around 10m across all UK nations. Then there's Republic of Ireland.

Planned Care
Physio, dermatology, referral management.
Covid has highlighted the need for people to stay healthy and look after their well being. Planned care is a crucial part of Out of Hospital care, part of integrated care.

TLY are in the right place, at the right time.

Last 5 years:
period revenue, cash, profit/loss
2015 £0.6m, £0.4m, £0.4m
2016 £4m, £1m, £1.4m
2017 £21.3m, £11.3m, £5.6m
2018 £42m, £10.2m, £0.2m
2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m

H1-2021 (Sept 2020)
revenue: £54m(H1-2020 £49m),
Gross profit: £10.2m(£9.8m)
Ebitda £2.3m (£1.3m)
Cash £12.3m (March 2020 £8.9m)
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xl6lo3x

Pays dividends
Mcap: £56m

ironknut
"Seems the chat is more about the very badly managed nhs than Totally. How is this relevant ?"

It's very relevant. If TLY prove they can provide a better service than the NHS itself then they will benefit with more contracts. TLY have already upgraded services with CQC ranking being improved dramatically.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/rmm1dvr

Only 1 week until fy end.
I looking for news on TLY:
Insourcing - How busy they are.
Planned care division, if/when they expect to be back at full speed.
Urgent Care Division - Are new contracts being awarded? Service extensions; airports, vaccines, testing

A rise in fy dividend would be nice but is a cherry on the cake. They have previously said they will look at progressive dividends once covid situation is more stable.

HM House price index.
Actual prices rather than asking prices or mortgage approvals.

England:
House prices fell in Jan.
New Build prices down 0.7% in Jan.

"In England the January data shows, on average, house prices have fallen by 0.6% since December 2020."

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-january-2021

brubru
"but conveniently you do not say that Tremor is up by 20% in two days"

PIs are comparing Trmr with US Peers. PIs mention Magnite/The Trade Desk when the sp rises but nothing when they fall. A comparison is true both ways.

I think US Ad tech is in a bubble and CTV fraud/RTB/Privacy will become a major issues over the next few months causing the bubble to burst. If/when Trmr list in US then if my view is correct then they are listing when that bubble is about to burst. I back that up with links.

I'm happy for all readers to counter that view and form their own opinion.

1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.
https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/data-privacy-legislations-in-2020-and-trends-to-watch-out-for-in-2021/

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-fraud-scheme-costs-up-to-50m/

Oracle Exposes Largest CTV Ad Fraud Operation Ever
https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-exposes-ctv-ad-fraud-operation-121720.html#:~:text=The%20StreamScam%20operation%20exploited%20flaws,3%2C400%20unique%20CTV%20device%20models.

3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major negative newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

TLY's fy end is in 1 week, 31st March.

Last year, the TU was on 20th April but that followed an update on 24th March because of covid lockdown. In 2019 the TU came on 8th April, so I think this year's will be around mid April(Easter weekend is 2nd-5th April.
We should get an update on the TLY's reation to the White Paper. In any case, any questions should be answered in their investor presentation.

HM House price index.
Actual prices rather than asking prices or mortgage approvals that are published by other providers.

England:
House prices fell in Jan.
New Build prices fell 0.7% in Jan.

"In England the January data shows, on average, house prices have fallen by 0.6% since December 2020."

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-january-2021

Eddie,
"great to see you struggling so badly against continues good positive news from Tremor"

I read the fy results and found they didn't show any significant increase compared to 2019, despite them including a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 Nil) and rthm(2019 8 months).

Don't you agree a 2% increase in revenues even with a full contribution from Unruly isn't much?

Facts from fy results..

Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

No divi in foreseeable future. Retaining future earnings to finance operations.

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Eddie,
"Great to see you struggling so badly against continues good positive news from Tremor."

I'm not struggling at all, thank you.

The sp is about 20% above where rthm(now trmr) were after the previous US Elections in 2016. In Apr 2017, the rthm eq sp rose to 589p on bullish comments before it fell back on actual results.

Are you holding and hoping to get back to the eq sp of £28, you were holding at in Jan 2014?

Trmr US Peers:
Magnite down 7%
The Trade Desk down 3%

Magnite down around 30% since the ceo sold $1.7m shares at around $61 a month ago.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni

I think there's an ad tech bubble.

Johnson,
"When the customers bought the Leasehold houses wasn't it the job of that persons conveyancing solicitor to read through the T&C's ?"

You would expect so. Except, according to the Parliamentary investigation, some house builders were recommending which solicitors to use. Some of the solicitors are also part of the investigation into the leasehold scandal.

The findings state in some cases solicitors were recommended HBs.

Parliamentary document.

Housebuilder's were recommending the solicitors to use...

"While developers have been accused of providing misleading sales information or
imposing onerous terms in leases, ultimately it was the responsibility of conveyancing solicitors to ensure prospective purchasers of leasehold properties were aware of the ownership structure and lease terms and their effect. It is the conveyancing solicitors, as opposed to the developers, who could be legally liable for failing to highlight these terms to prospective leaseholders. It was concerning, therefore, to hear several reports from leaseholders that they had been advised, incentivised or required by the developer to use a specific conveyancing solicitor, who subsequently did not advise them of onerous terms in their leases."
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcomloc/1468/1468.pdf

Read the fy results. It shows their revenues/adj ebitda compared to fy2019.

Total net revenue increased by 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). increase of $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up £100k(2019 $60.4m)

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

The fy ends next week, 31st March.
Last year they issued the fy TU on 27th April. So the TU should be in about a month.

However, last year they also issued TUs a week pre-fyend and post fyend on 23/03/20(1st lockdown), 27/04/20, 14/05/20, 03/08/20, which kept PIs informed of demand during the 1st lockdown and initial months of covid when there was record demand.
The TU in August was just a couple of weeks before the Mail tip.

23/03/20
"We have seen a very substantial increase in demand for the full range of our infection prevention and control technologies over the last seven weeks, following broad recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe. Firm orders currently sit at GBP1.7m for deliveries to end of June, with many more orders still being processed."
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020-03-20-General-TU-Final-pdf.pdf

Then one month later:
27/04/20
"We entered the new financial year with a strong order book exceeding GBP2m and expect to generate record sales from products (i.e. excluding licenses, royalties and technical development deals) in the first quarter of the year"
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2020-04-24-TU-FINAL-pdf.pdf

Then one month later:
14/05/20:
"we are pleased to report that sales momentum remains strong. We expect to generate record sales in the first quarter of the year"
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020-05-13-TU-IRI-SCJ-FINALpdf.pdf

Then 3 months later:
03/08/20:
"Product sales for the first quarter to 30 June exceeded GBP3.4m and orders for July and August continue to look encouraging."
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-08-03-TU-FINAL-pdf.pdf

However, there have been no TUs since the interims on 7th December.

Peter
"since the Mail on Sunday in September said in an article stocks were flying off the shelves."

They've published the H1, Apr-Sept, since the Mail article.

During H1 global consumer sales increased by £590k.
The rest was sales from professional and Royalty/Licensing income.

Consumer:
"H1 revenues more than doubled to £1.01m from £0.41m, including a small amount of IP-based income, versus nil IP income in the comparable period. Gross profit (on products) increased to £0.43m from £0.17m. "
"Elsewhere, sales across existing customers all increased in this segment, especially into Japan via our longstanding agents in pet and healthcare."

Royalty income:
fy2020 £780k,
H1 2021 £590k

FY2020:
"We also recognised revenue and gross profit from IP agreements of £0.78m, lower than the prior year (which benefited from one large IP agreement with Solvay SA)."

https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FY-2020-web.pdf

H1 2021:
"including £0.59m of royalty and licensing revenue"

Royalty & Licensing income £591k

See Segmental analysis

https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/H1-2021-1.7.pdf

NathanBryce,
Although TW stopped selling leasehold years ago, they are in the process of converting onus leases. I think the letter from CMA is to remove 'doubling rent every 10-15 yrs' clauses from all existing leases. I wonder how many are left to convert?

Countryside and Taylor Wimpey face court threat over ground rents

"Housebuilders Countryside and Taylor Wimpey have broken consumer protection laws by forcing leaseholders to sign “unfair” terms, leaving homeowners “trapped” in their properties, according to the UK competition regulator.

The Competition and Markets Authority said on Friday it had written to both developers demanding they remove contract terms that double ground rent every 10 or 15 years."
https://www.ft.com/content/9e3fa590-42b5-46cb-9ae2-3dfc8137dc66

SNN,
"Global ad fraud intelligence and marketing compliance platform Pixalate"

Thanks for that.
This also from Pixalate today, says ctv fraud remains high in Q4 2020:

Connected TV (CTV) Ad Supply Trends Report 2020: Global Programmatic CTV Ad Spend Increases 2.2x in "Year of CTV"

Report reveals 78% of U.S. households are now reachable via programmatic CTV advertising, but ad fraud rates remain high, at 24% in Q420

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/connected-tv-ctv-ad-supply-trends-report-2020-global-programmatic-ctv-ad-spend-increases-2-2x-in-year-of-ctv-301253540.html

I think the recent newsflow was odd.

10th March - 2 weeks ago, they announce their fy2020 results stating that they continue to explore, from time to time, a dual listing.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

16th March - Then just 6 days later, they announce the proposed US listing. That was at odds to their fy statement, just the previous week.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

22nd March - 6 days later, the 1st TU update.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Trading-Statement-220321.pdf

So the last 7 days, they announce plans for a dual-listing and now the Q1 TU 10days before Q1 end.

They seem to be in a rush. Why? a dual listing and a placing. I wonder if IIs, who were selling recently are pushing them along.

Maybe:
Overhang
Court news.
Placing.

Perhaps trying to dual-list before the ad tech bubble bursts, so IIs can sell?

Very odd.

Bear points:
The sp was significantly lower a year ago.

Read the original Finncap expectations and compare with actuals.
Trmr failed to meet previous Finncap expectations. Check them for yourselves.
Why should they meet them this year?

Finncap is free to register.

2019 - inc 8mnths of contribution from rthm, merged in Apr 2019.
2020 - inc full year contribution from Unruly(2019 NIL) and RTHM(2019 8 months)

2019: expections - 2nd Apr:
rev expectation $495m Actual $325.8m ** $170m lower than originally expected.
adj ebitda expect $67.4m Actual $60.4m ** $7m lower than originally expected

2020 expectations - 31 March:
revenue expection $424.9m, ACTUAL $404m ** $20m lower than originally expected
adj $75.3m, ACTUAL $60.5m ** $15m Lower than originally expected

https://www.finncap.com/

From fy2020 results:
total revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

Check the table in the results (link below).

Fy2020 inc full year contribution from Unruly(2019 Nil) & Rthm(2019 8 months).

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

The sp was significantly lower a year ago, since then they have missed the original expectations, and despite the US Election and covid, they only increased net revenues by 12%. That net revenue increase includes a full contribution from Unruly (2019 Nil) and rthm (2019 8 months).