Member Info for stt1

They and rthm(now trmr) have a history of missing company broker expectations, despite fy2020 including a fy contribution from Unruly(2019 NIL) and Rthm(2019 8 Months).
Check them yourselves.

Bullish comments at start of year and then fail when it comes to fy results.
The sp was significantly lower a year ago and they have missed the expectations.

Finncap/Trmr:

Trmr failed to meet previous Finncap expectations.
Check the expectations v Actuals yourself.

Finncap is free to register.
Trmr operate a full stack. Rthm(now merged with trmr) also operated a full stack.

2019 - inc 8mnths of contribution from rthm, merged in Apr 2019.
2020 - inc full year contribution from Unruly(2019 NIL) and RTHM(2019 8 months)

2019: expections - 2nd Apr:
rev expectation $495m Actual $325.8m ** $170m lower than originally expected.
adj ebitda expect $67.4m Actual $60.4m ** $7m lower than originally expected

2020 expectations - 31 March:
rev expect $424.9m, ACTUAL $404m ** $20m lower than originally expected
adj $75.3m, ACTUAL $60.5m ** $15m Lower than originally expected

https://www.finncap.com/

Last year the fy TU was on 20th April, so we might get one this or the following week.
In 2019, it was on 8th April.

Therefore, we might get the TU this or the following week.

The proposals in the 'White Paper' were expected and TLY are prepared.

Latest FY2020 :
Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

dimi
" the house builders aren't even though business has been really good for couple of months and it's probably going to stay busy at least till September."

SD Hol and furlough were only extended last month. Now there's only 4 months until furlough and SD hol ending starts to rear its head again and there's questions over house price direction.
The new Help to Buy, which is only for 1st time buyers and has regional price caps has already kicked in.
Plus the Scottish Govn have already stopped Help to Buy.
So we'll see how that has impacted Scottish HBs when they next report.

"The scheme is available across Scotland to first time buyers and existing homeowners until Friday 5 February 2021 at 6pm when the scheme will close for all new applications."

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/ways-to-buy/help-to-buy/help-to-buy-scotland
New Build prices fell slightly before the gov supp

TLY are looking for a new Marketing and Comms director.
"“a new role for the organisation... recognising our ambition to grow both organically and through acquisition.”"

They are also looking for area/regional directors for their "Urgent Care Division".

Foundation set for future growth.

https://www.totallyplc.com/about-us/careers/

This morning's contract extension is worth £12.5m over 6 months, to finish in summer/autumn.
Feb's contract extension was also for 6 months.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xzm94pw

Last year they were awarding 12 month extensions, due to expire this summer/autumn.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/w11184w

I think they are currently awarding 6 month extensions to cover the covid pandemic period, ie also due to expire this summer/autumn.
This ties in with the 12month extensions awarded last year, which would also finish in summer/autumn this year.

TLY did say last year that the NHS are not awarding 'new' contracts due to the pandemic.

Once covid pandemic is over the NHS should resort to 'new' contracts again.
It would be impossible to award 'new' contracts to providers who are in the middle of lengthy contracts(extensions).

Therefore, I see short contract extensions ending in the summer/autumn as good news.

Great to see more contract extensions, £12.5m over 6 months, be awarded to TLY.

Fy2021 ended last week on 31st March, so this contract is for the current year just started, fy2022.

These should also lead nicely to new ICS contracts being awarded, as in the White Paper.

Roadrunner,
"This share desperately needs a Trading Update"

The lack of TU since the interims is a bit worrying. It shows there hasn't been significant increase in trading during H2.
The problem is when there is huge demand for a product then other companies adapt and enter the market.
They were presented with the biggest opportunity on a plate but they didn't seize the opportunity. Marketing/PR.

Read the facts FROM the company.

The sp was significantly lower a year ago and they have reported lower fy figures than expected a year ago.

The facts over the past year are:.

1) Huge increase in debt provision.

2) Dec 2020 - The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.

3) Despite the huge increase in ad spending (US Elections, covid), their fy2020 revenues only increased by $20m and adj EBITDA by £100k (yes k) and MISSED the Brokers expectations set in March 2020. These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

Huge 11 fold increase in debt provision:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

Despite the 'huge' increases due to the environment, fy2020 Adj EBITDA only up £100k and revenues only up $20m. Missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Net Revenues: $184.3m (2019 $164.0m) ** increase of $20m with full year contribution from Unruly(2019 NIL) and Rthm(2019 8 Months)
Adj Ebitda: $60.5m(2019 $60.4m) ** increase of only $100k over 2019
Net cash $96.8m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Below Finncap's March 2020 expectations

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

ebitda: $75.0m, now $60.4m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

Rusty,
"might sell a few if it gets into ridiculous territory, a most of my holdings are in blinks"

Given PIs tend to chase what they believe/perceive is the 'next big thing', blnx/rthm(now trmr) did reach the ridiculous territory(blnx eq sp of £28 Jan 2014 and rthm eq sp 589p in Apr 2017) you mention before falling back based on events.

Look at some of the 'covid' shares, .com boom/bust.
Some PIs who bought in at the start of the ramp do well, others who chase are left holding. Trmr were tipped by scsw 3 months ago!!!

I treat tipsheets with a huge pinch of salt. You have to be naive to be buying solely on the back of tipsheet tips and don't look at the company newsflow.

Who's going to be next holding these for the next few years hoping to break-even??

Read rthm(now trmr) newsflow:
CEO selling 1/3 of his holding in Dec!!
The rthm merger in 2019, followed by the profit warning, huge 11fold increase in debt provision, missing company broker expectations.

Has this thread become a scsw promotional thread?

You have to be naive to buy solely on the basis of a tipsheet, especially when the initial tip was around 3 months ago!! The herd would have already bought in and would now be ramping it as much as possible so they can get out.
The fact several on here have been here for years and are still looking for break-even, so they can get out, says a lot.

Comparing to Baltimore Technologies!!
***************************************
Remember .com boom and bust of late 1990s and early 2000s.
scsw are comparing the performance of trmr with Baltimore Technologies in late 1990s!!

Have a look at what happened to Baltimore Technologies:

SCSW's main recommendation in Dec 1999 "Baltimore Techonologies" then 3 months later the sp crashed as .com boom turned to bust.

"In a world where the acid test is share-price performance... Baltimore Technologies... Sharewatch's main recommendation in December 1999... one subscriber claims to have made £2m."
https://www.scsw.co.uk/

"However, following the Stockmarket Crash of March 2000, its share price fell."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Technologies

They stated in their fy results that there will be webcast of their final results. That was 3 weeks ago, yet since then nothing on their website. Since then they announced the Q1 TU, 10 days before the Q1 end date, 31st March.

Very odd.


"A webcast detailing Tremor's final results will be made available on the Company's website in due course"
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

SNN,
"I added yesterday at just over 700p, having sold out of something else."

Currently, there are no buy backs to support the sp declines.

"I also expect a final Q1 update after 31.03.21 with actual figures rather than estimates"
It was very odd have a Q1 TU 10 days before the Q1 end date, so I agree they should provide actuals to back up their bullish stance, otherwise it'll raise questions as to why they announced the TU so early.

We've been here before, whenever there are results/TU due, the doomsters appear with similar messages. And every time they have been proven wrong.

Check it for yourself.
Last year. March/April 2020. They have been proven to be wrong every time.
Look at the doubting subject headers in the link below:
"Desperate news for tly"
"probably open at 5p tomorrow"
"concerns"
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally&page=10

or in 2019, Mar/Apr/May the doubting subject headers:
"Future order book"
predicting things won't look pretty in 1-2 yrs time.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally&page=18

Best to read the company/sector newsflow and form your own opinion.

Peter,
"As far as I know the results come out on Wednesday. That’s what Nic Hellyer told me in a recent email"

The fy end is on Wednesday, ie 31st March. They don't announce the results on the same day. I would check your email again.

Previously the fy TU has been announced in April/May.

2019 it was 9th May:
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019-05-09-Trading-Update.pdf

Last year it was on 27th April 2020.
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2020-04-24-TU-FINAL-pdf.pdf

In 2019 & 2020, they published their audited results 6 months after fy end, Sept/Oct.

dimi
"Personally I feel the last 4 years haven't been the best for the UK housing market with Brexit, Covid, etc."

How much of that growth over the last 4 years is down to the current govn Help to Buy scheme, which is due to end.
The new H2B scheme is for 1st Time Buyers only and has local price caps, which, going forward, will impact HBs prices.
The gap between avg house prices and avg wages is too wide so any govn scheme will only benefit a few. The gap needs to narrow to make house buying more affordable.

The Stamp Duty hol extension has provided a temp relief for now but what will happen when it ends?

There's also the extra tax for foreign buyers, which was introduced in the budget.
The HM house price figures for Jan, show New Build prices fell.
The CMA investigation into leasehold scandal is ongoing and will impact TW & PSN until it is fully resolved.

I think there is a danger of ghost developments as there were post 2007 house price crash.

djfram
"Good to keep rising even without the buybacks."

I find it odd that despite having approval for $20m over 6 months of buy backs, they only planned for $10m over 3 months, all to finish before 31st March.
Even more odd was the Q1 TU last week, 10days before Q1 end, which is also 31st March.

I think there's likely to be a placing/overhang over the next few months.

Court Approval for $20m over 6 months of buy backs:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Share-Buyback-and-Dividend-Distribution-Update.pdf

Planned for $10m over 3 months to finish 31st March:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Commencement-of-Share-Buyback-Programme-221020.pdf

Next week, there could be PIs wishing to take advantage of this year's cgt allowance.
The last trading day is 1st Apr which is the same day as TW's ex-divi day.

After which, the markets are closed for Easter and re-open on new tax year day, 6th Apr.

The rns today this confirms that the proposals in the White Paper are great for TLY.
One of few, first organisation to be chosen as a preferred partner. New 3 year agreement until 31st March 2024.

As previously posted, the proposals in the White Paper were expected and the TLY Business model is well prepared. Today's rns counters the bear point raised by Radium/Eddie suggesting the White Paper proposals are bad for TLY.
Read the company/sector newsflow.

"The new framework agreement commences on 1 April 2021 and runs to 31 March 2024. "

"Wendy Lawrence, CEO of Totally, said: "We are delighted to be one of the first organisations chosen to be a preferred provider of Emergency Department validations for the NHS as part of this shift towards the new ICS framework. Being one of the few selected as part of this competitive process is testament to the hard work of our staff and the quality of services we provide in the region.



"As the NHS moves away from large public sector tendering for services it is looking to be quicker and more efficient in responding to shifts in demand across the country and, as such, is looking to appoint partners that it can proactively work with going forward, without the need for lengthy procurement processes. Having been selected as one of these providers, Totally can now rapidly mobilise services in response to the shifting demands of YAS without needing to go through further formal processes."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/x2j3zmw

Delayed NHS 111 being expanded in North Wales.

Long-awaited 111 NHS helpline to be rolled out in North Wales this summer

http://www.deeside.com/free-nhs-111-helpline-finally-looks-set-to-arrive-in-north-wales-this-year/