Member Info for stt1

Despite the 'strong' outperform results, Pubmatic closed down 1.4% on Fri and down 23% compared to the close previous Fri, 7th May.

Closed $44.62 on Fri 7th, closed $33.83 yesterday.

https://www.google.com/search?q=pubmatic+share+price&oq=pub&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j69i57j69i60j69i65l2j69i60l2.2535j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

TLY's diversified business model consists of:
1) Urgent Care
2) Planned Care
3) Insourcing.

Insourcing division is well placed to help the NHS reduce hospital waiting lists in all UK nations and Ireland.

Latest figures according to BBC.

"In England, nearly 5 million people are now on a hospital waiting list - 9% of the population - the highest number since records began, in 2007.

A similar proportion are waiting in Scotland, while in Wales it is 17% and Northern Ireland 23%.

Most worrying, the numbers waiting over a year have rocketed - in England, from 1,600 before the pandemic to 436,000 at the end of March 2021."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57092797

Dimi,
Thanks for the link to Which article, interesting.

Unlike the mortgage, H2B are equity loans, so the amount increases as the property value increases.
So an avg property bought for £250k. A 20% H2B loan would br £50k.
If the property price increases by 10% a year, the property would be worth £275k.
Year 1, the mortgage would still be £160k. However, the H2B loan would now be £55k.
Year 2, mortgage £160k, H2B loan £60.5k.
etc
Obviously payments on the mortgage would reduce the mortgage balance but I've used interest only for simplicity of calculation sake.

You can see the H2B balance actually increases based on the original purchase price, whereas the mortgage balance would be decreasing.

For buyers to save enough to pay off the H2B loan, they need to save more than the yearly increase in the H2B loan.

Regarding the Which article:
Maybe the govn website is wrong but it states the 1.75% from year 6 is a MONTHLY interest FEE, ie not the interest rate and separate from the interest.
The govn website also states the interest is rise ever year.

Hence my assertion about hefty interest rates and that I believe H2B loans are toxic, which I think will lead to another financial crisis.

For the first five 5 years:
the equity loan is interest free
you pay a £1 monthly management fee by Direct Debit

From year 6:
pay the £1 monthly management fee
pay MONTHLY interest FEE of 1.75% of the equity loan
interest rate will rise each year in April by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), plus 2%
https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/equity-loan/equity-loans/

Management fees, hefty interest charges - all sounds similar to the leasehold scandal. I think it makes the leasehold scandal look like small fry.

What is your take on this?

Bru
" rather you have dig a post you wrote ages ago and waited for an article to prove your unfounded points."

I initially expressed my opinions on the Ad Tech bubble, giving my reasoning, in Jan. Obviously, post that comment, is when there would be any evidence whether the opinion was correct or not. There was no point in saying in Feb that the bubble has burst, as odd movement up or down doesn't prove a trend.

However, over the past few weeks there has been increasing evidence to back up my opinion that the bubble has burst.

Looking at the US Peers:
US Peers down around 45-60% since peak.

Pubmatic $69.92 1st March, now $35
Perion $25 2nd March, now $14
Magnite $62 12th Feb, now $25
The Trade Desk $903 22nd Dec peak, now $496

Magnite is down over 60%
Wasn't Magnite the company which was used as the read across to trmr?

I think those 50% falls across the board within a 2-3month period are evidence to back up my stance made in Jan/Feb the ad tech bubble and it's going to burst. So the substantial sp falls were as expected.

dimi
"I have to disagree on the 'hefty interest charges' after year 5 for HTB. Looking at the numbers the interest rate starts at 1.75% in year 6 and then it increases by CPI + 2%. If we assume CPI equal to the BOE target of 2% we get 1.82%, 1.89%, 1.97% and 2.05% in year 10. "

Nothing wrong with disagreeing.
Interest rate on H2B is 2%+CPI. Unless there is deflation, interest rate would be greater than 2%, whereas you have posted interest rates below 2%. Using your BoE target of 2%, interest rate would be 4% (2% + BoE target of 2%).

I think 4% interest rate is hefty, especially as current 5yr fixed deals are below 4% The bank base rate is currently 0.1% compared to the base rate for H2B of 2%.

This is interest on the H2B loan which will be on top of the interest they are already paying for their mortgage.
Given H2B is for 1st time buyers then they are more likely to be borrowing to the hilt (mortgage + H2B loan) and so any additional amount demanded is likely to impact them more.

Eddie,
Re: Trmr. I noticed their US Peers have fallen around 50%, as predicted.

As to TLY and the new framework.

You accusing TLY BoD of lying about the new framework awarded to them and their statement that they are prepared for the new frameworks???

"The new framework agreement commences on 1 April 2021 and runs to 31 March 2024. "

"Wendy Lawrence, CEO of Totally, said: "We are delighted to be one of the first organisations chosen to be a preferred provider of Emergency Department validations for the NHS as part of this shift towards the new ICS framework. Being one of the few selected as part of this competitive process is testament to the hard work of our staff and the quality of services we provide in the region.

"As the NHS moves away from large public sector tendering for services it is looking to be quicker and more efficient in responding to shifts in demand across the country and, as such, is looking to appoint partners that it can proactively work with going forward, without the need for lengthy procurement processes. Having been selected as one of these providers, Totally can now rapidly mobilise services in response to the shifting demands of YAS without needing to go through further formal processes."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/x2j3zmw

Eddie
"Wendy will have other serious issues to think about like the effects of AI on TLY Call Centres."

Why would AI cause problems with NHS111/NHS999 centres?
Do you think 999 will close because of AI?
Technology is great news for TLY as it will mean fewer contract staff, reducing overheads.
Last year the NHS encouraged the use of NHS 111 online. Despite that TLY has recently announced a strong performance.

Do you think AI will take over and perform all the millions of operations which were postponed due to covid?

"In addition also other concerning question marks regarding what may be about to come once New NHS restructuring and rationalisation programs get underway?"

The proposals were expected and are great for TLY. They recently announced a new contract on the new framework.

"The new framework agreement commences on 1 April 2021 and runs to 31 March 2024. "

"Wendy Lawrence, CEO of Totally, said: "We are delighted to be one of the first organisations chosen to be a preferred provider of Emergency Department validations for the NHS as part of this shift towards the new ICS framework. Being one of the few selected as part of this competitive process is testament to the hard work of our staff and the quality of services we provide in the region.

"As the NHS moves away from large public sector tendering for services it is looking to be quicker and more efficient in responding to shifts in demand across the country and, as such, is looking to appoint partners that it can proactively work with going forward, without the need for lengthy procurement processes. Having been selected as one of these providers, Totally can now rapidly mobilise services in response to the shifting demands of YAS without needing to go through further formal processes."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/x2j3zmw

So you're wrong on both counts.

flyinghorse,

The Ad Tech sell off was expected as they did after the previous US Election.
Too many on here were ramping these despite the evidence that US Peers are falling and are now trying to convince readers that sentiment has somehow only just changed.

As expected, Trmr haven't even Dual listed and posters are already looking at US markets for a guide.
Once they Dual list that will be a big problem, posters anxiously waiting to see what is happening in US. It'll always be what is happening in US.

Is it a coincidence that Tosca have been selling. They held over 29% of rthm(now trmr) during the previous US Elections and saw the rthm sp fall post 2017 results.

Facebook & Alphabet shares join in the ad tech sell off.
Ad Tech slowdown after the hotly contested US Election..
As expected.
Bubble...
;-)

Alphabet, Facebook Drop as Citi Warns of Ad Growth Slowdown

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-facebook-drop-citi-sounds-155942412.html

Despite reporting strong results, The Trade Desk shares are currently down a further 25%.

Magnite currently down a further 20%.

Pubmatic currently down a further 17%.

The gains were made during the hotly contested US Election. As I mentioned the same happened during 2016-17 during the previous US Elections.

Rising on bullish comments and falling on events.
As expected.

Questions surrounding Programmatic, which should lead to the bubble bursting, as mentioned in this msg stream. as expected.

Despite The Trade Desk beating expectations, the shares open down 18%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTD/

Ad Tech bubble. ;-)

"“We delivered outstanding performance in the first quarter, once again surpassing our expectations. Revenue growth acceleration over Q1 a year ago is testament to the value that marketers are placing on data-driven advertising."

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210510005294/en/The-Trade-Desk-Reports-First-Quarter-Financial-Results

Scampthedog,
"People don't like STT because he has been consistently right...the s.p is testimony to that."

Thanks. Not only the sp but the results haven't backed up the bullish comments.

All readers should read all bull and bear points and form their own opinion. It's their money. Read posts with links to back up.

Btw, what do you think 'STT' in 'STTsBumbag' stands for? ;-)

Shares on Loan have doubled since Dec.

Is it a coincidence that Tosca, who held over 29% of rthm(now trmr) for years, have been selling down and now hold around 40% less than they did during the previous US Election in 2016?

Is it a coincidence that Shares on Loan have been increasing since the CEO sold a 1/3 of his holding in Dec?

According to Euroclear, Avg Shares on Loan (SoL) increased again in April.

They have now increased every month since December.

Sep 1141573 0.92%
Oct 1547922 1.25%
Nov 1457233 1.18%
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
Apr 3026422 2.41%

Free to register
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

Jonnie
"may be stamp duty holiday could cause a flash down.."

You may not have to wait long.
The SD Hol is due to end soon.
The new H2B scheme which started this month, is for 1st time buyers only and has regional caps.
Several providers not providing the guaranteed 95% mortgages for new builds.

New Build prices fell in Jan & Feb.

I believe the H2B scheme will result in a lot of toxic loans, especially as hefty interest charges accrue after 5 yrs.

Tricky
"In case you did not notice, doggy has been saying for some time that certain U.S. ad-tech stocks "

Ok. So you say 'we' but you actually meant not you but ONE other poster, 'doggy'. Thanks for clarifying your mistake, you were in fact piggy backing on some else's opinion.
I always find it's best to form your own opinion and not rely on strangers on a BB. Unless of course you know them!
Anyway, it's good to see that you finally agree that US Peers are in a downtrend. So why did you say (see post within THIS message stream) only last Tues that my call on US ad tech bubble was wrong??.
Did you change your mind after I showed you the evidence?.
;-)

Tricky
"We've said all along that the U.S. ad-tech stocks were overvalued compared to Tremor"

Who's this "We"? Is it you and your mates?
Can you point me to the posts where royal 'we' have stated that US Ad tech stocks are overpriced?

The fact is US Peers have fallen by 35-40% over the past 2-3 months. That's a big fall in such a short space of time and it backs up my stance made in Jan-Feb that I believe US Peers are in a bubble. A 35-40% drop within a short space of time is a bubble burst. As expected.

Last Tues you commented that I was wrong about the bubble. You now claiming you (and 'we') said all along US Peers were overpriced. Make up your mind.

I see US Peers rose yesterday. Obviously, you'll stick to your new assertion and state that US Peers are overpriced.

Shares don't rise or fall in a straight line. They are volatile at the moment so expect sharp rises and falls but the trend is downwards at the moment.
;-)

Tricky,
"stt1, do you expect all stocks to rise without end?"

No, shares don't rise or fall in a straight line, which is why a trend over several weeks is useful.

Since I mentioned that the US ad tech peers are in a bubble, they have fallen over many weeks. Therefore, there has been a downtrend going back 2 months.

Despite the strong results/outlook:
Today:
Pubmatic down 14%
Magnite down 10%
Perion down 1%
The Trade Desk down 5%

Since I mentioned US Ad tech in a bubble:
Pubmatic $69.92 1st March, now $38, down 45% in 2 months
Perion $25 2nd March, now $16, down 36% in 2 months
Magnite $62 12th Feb, now $31, down 50% in 3 months
The Trade Desk $903 22nd Dec peak, now $602, down 33%

That's a downtrend going back 3 months.

Check the graphs out yourself:
This is Magnite:
https://www.google.com/search?q=magnite+share+price&oq=ma&aqs=chrome.1.69i60j69i59l3j69i57j69i60l3.1230j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Tricky,
"The stocks you mention are volatile, they go up and down in assorted patterns, the longer term trend is upwards."

Not really, the sp downtrend continues.

Pubmatic down 10%
Magnite down 2%
Perion down 1%
The Trade Desk down 4%

New video - interview with Wendy Lawrence, CEO.