Member Info for stt1

Gdog,
"is for TRMR to crush it in terms of performance. So far so good."

Do you think they will reach the £28 that so many need to recover to the eq sp blnx/rthm they bought/held at?

The Shares on Loan trebled since Dec - when the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding.
The Alphonso court case. Reminds me of the rthm/dataxu court case when eq sp was around 589p.

The overhang.
The huge placing.

Let's see.

There you go, as expected.

They are desperately trying to list before H1 results. H1 ends 30th June.

Given the announcement of the court case in May, I think the March mixed messages fit in. All parties usually try and settle disputes and if all else fails they go to court. No problem if you disagree, I'm sure readers can form their own opinion.

So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).

On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.

Placing.
Court case.
Overhang.

Eddie
"beloved TLY share that you so rave about"

I don't rave about TLY, I don't need to. The company are doing exactly as they said they will. They are in the right place at the right time for healthcare.

I merely corrected the misleading posts of yours, where you suggest the broker is lying.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/eddie21/

As I do here, I countered your post and backed it up with links as evidence.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/

Now back to trmr. Perhaps you or one of the others could counter the following?

Why are Tosca selling just days before the US listing and placing?
Why have Shares on Loan trebled since Dec and quadrupled since last Sept.
What impact will losing Alphonso have? Given they only recently lost Alphonso, it won't be known for some time.

GSmiley
"TRMR may be a good investment after all"

Based on what?
The sp was significantly lower a year ago and since then they missed fy expectations.
The CEO sold 1/3 of his holding.
Tosca, who have held for years are selling down. They previously held over 29% of rthm(now trmr).
Shares on Loan have trebled since Dec.
They have filed a court case against Alphonso.

Were they a good investment when rthm(now trmr) rose to 589p on bullish comments in 2016-17 and fell back on events(inc profit warning)? Or when blnx(now rthm) rose to £28 in 2013-14 on bullish comments and crashed on events(inc profit warning)

On what basis is trmr a good investment, after all?.
It's too early to say for sure.

They are desperately trying to list before H1 results and that event will include partial period without Alphonso.

Allenby, company broker:

"Well positioned to deliver growth under changed NHS delivery model – It is anticipated that in the future, traditional tendering for contracts by CCGs will change to one based on a public/private partnership model, in line with the new NHS Integrated Care System framework. We believe that Totally is recognised as being a trusted partner to the NHS (assisted by the fact that the CQC ratings for all its registered services are now rated as Good). Accordingly, we believe Totally is well positioned to be awarded new agreements, an example being the recent announcement that its subsidiary, Vocare, was chosen as a qualified provider to Yorkshire Ambulance Service NHS Trust, the first such agreement to be awarded under the new regime. "

http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-TOT.html

New contract awarded on the new framework.
TLY CEO:
"The new framework agreement commences on 1 April 2021 and runs to 31 March 2024. "

"Wendy Lawrence, CEO of Totally, said: "We are delighted to be one of the first organisations chosen to be a preferred provider of Emergency Department validations for the NHS as part of this shift towards the new ICS framework. Being one of the few selected as part of this competitive process is testament to the hard work of our staff and the quality of services we provide in the region.

"As the NHS moves away from large public sector tendering for services it is looking to be quicker and more efficient in responding to shifts in demand across the country and, as such, is looking to appoint partners that it can proactively work with going forward, without the need for lengthy procurement processes. Having been selected as one of these providers, Totally can now rapidly mobilise services in response to the shifting demands of YAS without needing to go through further formal processes."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/x2j3zmw

Rthm(now trmr) filed a court case against a partner in 2017. This was to do with hidden fees.

In 2016-17, the eq sp rose to 589p on bullish comments.
Within 18months they merged with TAP(now trmr) at 169p

Court cases damage to reputations, which can be a problem, as ad tech companies work with each other.

https://www.adexchanger.com/online-advertising/rhythmone-dataxu-tussel-unpaid-bills-hidden-fees/

The link for the Allenby notes where they state that TLY is well positioned for the new proposals

http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-TOT.html

The proposals were expected and TLY are prepared for them.

Eddie,
"Investors here, to a degree have stayed away and are much more cautious about buying TLY shares partly due to Uncertainty of on-going Government Policy Reviews and NHS Best Practise decisions"

You accusing Allenby and the NHS of lying?

"Well positioned to deliver growth under changed NHS delivery model – It is anticipated that in the future, traditional tendering for contracts by CCGs will change to one based on a public/private partnership model, in line with the new NHS Integrated Care System framework. We believe that Totally is recognised as being a trusted partner to the NHS (assisted by the fact that the CQC ratings for all its registered services are now rated as Good). Accordingly, we believe Totally is well positioned to be awarded new agreements, an example being the recent announcement that its subsidiary, Vocare, was chosen as a qualified provider to Yorkshire Ambulance Service NHS Trust, the first such agreement to be awarded under the new regime. "

http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-TOT.htmlWhite Paper proposals were expected and TLY business model is well prepared for them.

Rogue,
"There may be a healthy correction in house prices in the next couple of years, but a crash? "

What's your definition of a 'healthy correction' and how does it differ from a crash?
Any correction or crash, will have an impact on HBs.

qwerty,

Good find.

Also - 'IMPORTANT STEP':
"Chief executive Ofer Druker said the partnership was an “important step towards enhancing our leadership in TV retargeting”"

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/908650/tremor-renews-tv-advertising-partnership-908650.html

Stevie,
"How do you explain the 7 fold increase in the SP since the takeover? "
""The market is never wrong,our opinions often are""

Everyone will have their own opinion, absolutely nothing wrong with that.
So by your comment, the multibagger increases in Covid related shares is justified because the market is never wrong!!
How do you explain the 800x increase in NCYT from 15p at beginning of Jan 2020 to 1200p by Oct 2020, currently sp fallen back to 350p? So the market was right at 1200p??

How do you explain the collapse in rthm's sp in 2013-14. Or the rthm eq sp rise to 589p on bullish comments in 2016-17? Yet just 18months later they merged with tap(now trmr) at less than 1/3 of that at 169p.

In 2017, when the sp rose on bullish comments to 589p I still posted the challenges as I see them.
Everyone can read the responses I received back then.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=RTHM&share=Rhythmone-Plc&page=77

On 31st Jan 2019, you asked for my opinion of TAP(now trmr) to which I replied TAP/RTHM need each other, especially with the Privacy Data Laws (being introduced and are now hitting programmatic/ad tech ecosystem more and more).
See the msg stream titled 'Stt' created by you.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=RTHM&share=Rhythmone-Plc&page=6

The trmr profit warning in H1-2019 shows that opinion was correct, doesn't it?
Yet those same posters who ridiculed the evidence back then now claim it was obvious!!!

Rthm/tap have a history of the shares rising on bullish comments and falling back on events.
It MAYBE different this time.

Stevie,
"The game changer here was when Taptica bought Rhythmone. Everything before that transaction is irrelevant."

rthm merger a Game Changer!!! - I don't agree, quite the opposite. Taptica and rthm(now trmr) NEEDED each other because their individual businesses were suffering. Rthm had been running a full stack for years. They made losses for years.
Taptica(now trmr) BoD clearly didn't do a full DD (they only got access to the full books after the merger was complete).

Here's the evidence:
Look at the timeline of events - with the bullish comments, followed by falls due to events:

Before rthm/TAP merger completed - speculation of $700m combined revenues!!!:
*********************************************************************************
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/01/30/rhythmone-and-taptica-plot-merger-compete-with-google

Apr 2019: After the agreed merger, the problems/challenges previously mentioned became apparent:
*************************************************************************************
"Following completion of the acquisition of RhythmOne, the Company has been informed that, on a standalone basis, RhythmOne’s trading for the year to 31 March 2019 was below market expectations.
Whilst undertaking due diligence in respect of Taptica’s merger with RhythmOne,the Taptica Directors took a conservative approach in relation to RhythmOne’s trading to 31 March 2019"
"The Board’s outlook for Taptica remains as set out in its full year audited results released on 19 March 2019."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Appointment-of-CEO-RhythmOne-Trading-Update-and-Commencement-of-Share-Buyback-Programme-2-April-2019.pdf

From the company broker- free to register:
"Taptica’s management has only just received access to a very complex and disparate
organisation in RhythmOne"

"We caveat that these are early-stage forecasts ahead of Taptica’s management getting a detailed look into the RhythmOne books and business over the next months"

Their fy2019 forecasts were revenues $495m, adj ebitda $67.4m

https://www.finncap.com/research-portal?#/portal/finncap/research/8_10220

Sept 2019 - 6 months later, Profit warning, as expected!
*********************************************************
" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "
https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/interim-results/201909240700083776N/

Fy2019 - fy2019 was substantially below all expectations:
********************************************************
revenue: $325m
adj ebitda: $60.4m
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

SNN
" but since the company's fortunes have convincingly moved for the better "

In what way have the fortunes changed convincingly?
If you believe they are convincingly better then are you loading up at 800p and holding for the improved fortunes or hoping others will so you can sell?

rthm is now merged with trmr - The same arguments were used when:
In 2013-14 rthm/blnx shares rose on bullish comments to eq sp £28 before falling back on questionable events.
In 2016-17 rthm shares rose on bullish comments to eq sp 589 before falling back to around 100p on industry challenges.

The final figures from the company speak for themselves.

Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

They are desperately trying to dual list before the bubble has firmly crashed..
Watch:
the overhang.
Investigations into rtb/fraud.
court cases.

Given the announcement of the court case in May, I think the March mixed messages fit in.

So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).

On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.

Radium
"the advertising sector was 'as strong as I have seen it in 45 years. It's the snapback effect after what happened last year. It's huge."

45 years!! That's very bullish.

Given the ultra bullish comments, are you loading up at 800p+++ and holding for couple years, for the huge gains you're expecting?

I think we're now in the period where things should start getting interesting.

As govn support schemes, SD hol & Furlough wind down, I see the following as challenges for HBs:

SD Hol ending.
Furlough ending in Summer.
H2B now first time buyer only, with local price caps.
House prices too high compared to avg incomes, so affordability problems.
Several providers not providing the govn guaranteed 95% mortgages for new builds.
Ongoing Leasehold scandal redress.
Ongoing cladding redress.
Inflationary pressures, so increases in interest rates.
Worldwide house prices too high and due a correction.

I'm expecting a house price crash...

Anything else??

Hospital waiting list tops 5m in England

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57419504

That's England only.

TLY's insourcing division operates in all 4 UK nations AND Ireland.

Long term II sold another 1% and down to 15.9%.

They held over 29% of rthm(now trmr) 4 yrs ago, just after the previous US Elections, so now around 48% lower.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/LON:RTHM/RhythmOne/rns/237096

It's odd that Tosca are selling just days before the US listing, especially as they have held for years.

Overhang.
Court case.
Placing.

dimi
"I can already see the Guardian title - 'Property tycoons splash out on buybacks, cladding victims misery continues'."

Replace 'buybacks' in your comment with '£300m of dividends', which they are paying and you get.

"'Property tycoons splash out on £300m of dividends, cladding victims misery continues'."

What's the difference?

Ballymoss

I've backed up my opinion as to why I think they are desperately trying to list before H1 results.
99% of the posts on here are wild speculation, without any links to back up the speculation.

I think the need for a US listing became urgent around March time, as the Alphonso court case filing was mid-May.
Therefore, I think they would have known many weeks ago, maybe March, of the dispute with Alphonso. Companies try and resolve the differences before taking court action.

So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).

On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.

" I think you are so discredited now that no-one will take any notice of what you say"
Well you are replying, aren't you? lol

WiganWarriors,

"We need to get a resolution to the "cladding" issue soon, so we can move on. IMHO this is the real reason for the recent share price depression."

I think it's more than just the 'cladding' issue. I think we're now in the 'interesting period' for HBs.

I think HBs face several challenges over the next few months. The 'cladding' issue is just another one.
I think these other challenges include:
Ongoing leasehold scandal investigation.
Stamp Duty hol ending.
Furlough ending.
Widening gap between avg wages and avg house price.
Inflationary pressures leading to higher interest rates.
Several providers not backing the govn guaranteed 95% mortgage for New Builds.
Cladding issues.

I think there's a house price bubble.

I will look at buying in once I think these challenges are factored in the sp.