Member Info for stt1

Lasvelas,
"So my question to you is really to understand what drives you to make your postings here?"

No questions about trmr or ad tech ecosystem ???

Trmr has taken several disguises over the years.
blnx which renamed rthm then merged with TAP to form Trmr.

Several posters here were invested in blnx in 2014 when the eq sp crashed from around £28 to eq sp of around 700p(around current sp) within months, based on events.
The same happened in 2016-17 when rthm(now trmr) rose to 589p on bullish comments before falling back to around 100p, based on events.

Ask Ginodog, he was invested in 2014 when the eq sp was £28. He says so in his post that he has been invested since 2012. I can understand he needs the sp to go back to £28 hence his frustration at any contrarian opinions but why shoot the messenger?? Read his posting history, he was having a go at anyone with 'negative view' going back to 2015 - long before I joined.
"I’ve been a Blinkx share holder from the very early days - approx 2012"
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/ginodog/?page=8

Throughout the past 10 yrs blnx/rthm/tap/trmr have a history of rising on bullish comment and then falling back on events. Whether that be court cases, placings, profit warnings etc. They have a history of missing expectations, falling revenues, huge debt provision.

I haven't seen anything to suggest things are different this time. To me the last 12 months seem similar to 2013-14 & 2016-17 rises.
Best to trade in case there's another sharp sp slide due to events.

Overhang.

Is it a coincidence that they are desperately trying to list before News Corp lock in period ends - 18months from Jan 2020???

6.91% holding.

"Under the terms of the Transaction, News
Corp will be subject to an 18-month lockup period."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TRMR-Acquisition-of-Unruly-060120.pdf

Bear points.
Court case.
Placings.
Overhang.

From today's updates:

Placing.
Given they have $130m in cash, why do they need a placing for working capital??

"The principal purposes of this offering are to create a public market for our ADSs, facilitate greater access to the public equity markets, increase our visibility in the marketplace, as well as to obtain additional capital. We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital, general corporate purposes and to fund incremental growth, including for possible acquisitions. However, we do not currently have any definitive or preliminary plans with respect to the use of proceeds for such purposes."
https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-171330/

Another court case - they only settled Uber lawsuit a few months back.
Court Case:
"On May 18, 2021, Tremor Video, Inc. (“Tremor”) filed a complaint against
Alphonso, Inc. (“Alphonso”) in the Supreme Court of the State of New York,
County of New York. The claim is for breach of contract, tortious interference
with business relations, intentional interference with contractual relations,
unjust enrichment, and conversion. The lawsuit arises out of Alphonso’s breach
of a Strategic Partnership Agreement and an Advance Payment Obligation and
Security Agreement (“Security Agreement”) with Tremor, along with related
misconduct. Tremor complaint is for damages and other relief, including an
order foreclosing on Alphonso’s collateral under the Security Agreement, from
the Court."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/TRMR-Q1-2021-Trading-Update-250521.pdf

Mdumba,
The default answer is look at the sp. lol

Lots of covid related companies rose on PI expectation/perception they will do well out of covid. The fact their sp rose on their bullish comments doesn't mean they will, does it?

That's my point. The rthm(trmr) eq sp rose on bullish comments to 589p then fell back on events. The placings/profit warning/court cases/Industry Challenges.
And more than once.
Referring to the sp is not evidence.

Mdumba,
Everyone is entitled to post bull/bear points.
I find if the bull points can be countered then it strengths the bear points.
If the bear points can be countered then it strengthens the bull points.

The bear points - discuss/counter/ignore if you wish:
Shares on Loan doubled over the past 6 months.
CEO sold 1/3 of his holding.
Huge increase in debt provision.
Court cases.
Placing.
Overhang.
Increase in investigations into industry challenges, privacy/rtb.
Increase in investigations into fraud across the ad tech ecosystem.

Trmr following US Ad tech companies, which are overpriced.
History of missing expectations.

Please counter and feel free to list the bull points...

Curly
"I have never once read anything that you have written which is in any way complimentary or positive about this company."

What's stopping you from posting some bull/bear points and discussing them.

I've posted my opinion of the company/sector newsflow. The rthm eq sp fell from 589p to around 100p because of industry challenges, which you wanted posters to ignore. Trmr published a profit warning because of those industry challenges.

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/TRMR-Interim-Results_Final-240919.pdf

The industry challenges have increased over the past couple of years.

What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?

Pappa
"Why has this been slowly falling since mid April?"

I think housing market is overpriced.
I think the HBs face the following challenges. The Markets look to the future and not what the HBs have done.

Govn support:
The govn's is supporting the housing market with Stamp Duty hol and furlough. As restrictions ease, these support schemes will end. SD hol in a month and furlough in a few months time.

Help 2 Buy:
There is a new Help 2 Buy scheme. This scheme is for first time buyers only and there are regional price caps. Therefore HBs can't charge excess for buyers wishing to use the scheme

New Build House prices falling:
In Jan and Feb, house prices for New Builds fell.

Lease and Cladding issues:
There are ongoing issues with the leasehold scandal and cladding.

Interest rates:
If inflation rises, there's the risk of interest rate rises, which will impact home buyer's affordability.

Guaranteed 95% mortgages:
Several providers have said they will not provide these for new builds.

Investors:
Because of the less favourable tax environment compared to a few years ago, Buy to Let investors selling out.

I think we're heading for a housing market crash.

Tricky
"We all know private healthcare companies offer well-trained NHS staff to work out of hours for extra cash."

If you already know then why ask the question?
I was replying to your question (15th May) regarding where TLY's staff come from for their 3 divisions, Urgent Care, Planned Care and Insourcing.

From your post 15th May:
"Urgent Care
Planned Care
In-sourcing

These can't function without staff, so where do they come from and why are there not enough."

Curly,
"How anyone could try to lose other people money is beyond me."

Why not counter the points raised instead of resorting to personal abuse?
I'm sure all readers would benefit from bull/bear points being discussed.

These are your posts from 2017 when you said you have a 'fairly large holding' in rthm(now trmr). The rthm eq sp reached 589p before falling back to 100p, on the challenges that I mentioned that you posted the same stance wanting readers to ignore contrarian posts.

Readers can read for themselves you were posting the same 'ignore the contrarian posters' stance back then as well.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/curlykev/?page=14

Can you please stick to posting about the company and sector?

Shares on Loan increasing and Tosca, who were the largest shareholder for years, have been selling.

According to Euroclear, avg SoL are have now doubled over the past 6 months.

Oct 1547922 1.25%
Nov 1457233 1.18%
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

(free to register)

There's the placing.

If they have $130m in cash, why do they need a placing to raise money for 'working capital'

"The principal purposes of this offering are to obtain additional working capital, to create a public market for our ADSs and to facilitate our future access to the public equity markets. We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital, general corporate purposes and to fund incremental growth, including for possible acquisitions. See “Use of Proceeds.”

https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-171330/

Alphono court case.

"On May 18, 2021, Tremor Video, Inc. (“Tremor”) filed a complaint against
Alphonso, Inc. (“Alphonso”) in the Supreme Court of the State of New York,
County of New York. The claim is for breach of contract, tortious interference
with business relations, intentional interference with contractual relations,
unjust enrichment, and conversion. The lawsuit arises out of Alphonso’s breach
of a Strategic Partnership Agreement and an Advance Payment Obligation and
Security Agreement (“Security Agreement”) with Tremor, along with related
misconduct. Tremor complaint is for damages and other relief, including an
order foreclosing on Alphonso’s collateral under the Security Agreement, from
the Court."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/TRMR-Q1-2021-Trading-Update-250521.pdf

I mentioned court cases in my previous post, see earlier post in this msg stream... so as expected, another court case.

From my March 23rd post:
They seem to be in a rush. Why? a dual listing and a placing. I wonder if IIs, who were selling recently are pushing them along.

Overhang
Court news.
Placing.

Perhaps trying to dual-list before the ad tech bubble bursts, so IIs can sell?

Very odd.

Farruggia
"getting closer to having a big say here."

Tosca held 29% of rthm(now trmr) for years. Did it make any difference?
No, in fact Tosca have been selling down.

The CEO sold 1/3 of his holding. He, more than any II, would have a say in the company, wouldn't he? Yet it didn't stop him from selling a large 1/3 of his holding.

Read the fundamentals, the latest actual figures FROM the company.

The sp was significantly lower a year ago and they have reported lower fy figures than expected during the year.
.

Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Eddie,
"The BULL points outweighed and out ranked any Bear points by a long way."

Which Bull points?.

The article says "Tremor was pitched to the Stockopedia Investment Club on the 4th of May 2021 at 740p."
The current sp is 690p, so the shares are lower.

The bull points haven't changed over the past couple of months, since they announced their Q1 TU expectations. If the bull points were so convincing that the sp would have been substantially higher than when they announced their Q1 TU, ie closer to £12 mark mentioned by posters on the BBs. Instead on 24th March the sp was 752p and now it's 690p.

That tells me investors are much more cautious about buying Trmr shares at 700p+++ and holding them than you would have readers believe.

From the Stockopedia review:
Lists some of the bear points I've mentioned.

"Bear points:
chequered past;
the business model can be hard to grasp with lots of jargon;
new online advertising market brings technological and regulatory risks;
US peer group comparisons might reflect an expensive US tech market;
directors and major holders have been selling shares."

I would add history of missed expectations.
Huge increase in debt provision.
Ongoing investigations into privacy/fraud in ad tech ecosystem.

Tricky,
"then TLY cannot simply employ more if and when required by the NHS."

You really should do some research on the way the NHS/TLY work.

There are huge A&E waiting times, huge waiting lists for operations because the NHS don't have the staff.

That's exactly where TLY's business model is perfectly placed and at the right time.
NHS staff work a finite amount of hours per week. Hundreds, if not thousands, of NHS staff work for the NHS as well as doing private work. eg Consultants work for NHS as well as doing private work.

Due to NHS staff shortages, there are long A&E waiting times. There's a long wait for GP appointments.

This is where TLY's Urgent Care division comes in. NHS 111 help reduce A&E waiting times by reducing the number of unnecessary attendees going to A&E depts. Walk in centres reduce the long wait for GP appointments.

The pandemic highlighted the need for NHS 111.

TLY's insourcing division.

TLY insourcing help the NHS with operations during the evenings and weekends, ie outside of normal NHS working hours when the operating theatre would normally be unused.
Contract staff, who are free on the evening/weekend can choose to work when it suits them.

It's not a either NHS or TLY.
Look up what 'additional' and 'autonomy to decide' mean.

eg Dermatology staff to work for TLY Insourcing.

"Are you looking to take on additional private work with high earning
potential?If you are looking for a role with regular additional work at weekends with full autonomy to decide what you commit to, we would love to hear from you."

https://www.totallyplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Totally-Healthcare-Ltd-Adverts-Website-3.pdf

Whether they are peers or not depends on simple logic...

If the US Peers sp is rising they are peers and there is a read across. If the US Peer's sp is falling then they are different models, different metrics.
;-)

Dimi,

Thanks. I agree the govn website on H2B is vague. If they do charge 1.75% per month (over 20% pa) there would be an outcry. The leasehold scandal would be minor in comparison.

Regarding the re-mortgaging.. H2B is for 1st time buyers, who are likely to be mortgaged to the hilt. Unless incomes increase > house price growth then I don't think they would be in a position to re-mortgage for the extra.

Let's see how the next few months pan out.

Govn support being withdrawn - furlough, SD Hol.
Increasing inflation leading to increasing interest rates.

I agree with Roadrunner. They have been here before, yet global consumer sales increased only £590k during the important H1 period, Apr-Sept.

Then H2 was significantly lower than H1.

Last year it was Boots sales surge, contract with Tower, Tristal etc... What happened????

How much are they making from Advanced Hygienics over the past 3-4yrs???

Having a product doesn't GUARANTEE they are making significant money from it?

As restriction ease, so will the need for sanitiser/cleaning products. People are desperate to remove masks and use sanitiser and put covid behind them.

Just look at the spectators going to Football, snooker, concerts etc..

There's a lot of jam tomorrow. Other companies have adapted and entered the market - Virusend, Zoflora etc etc.

Virusend developed, manufactured, marketed and already in the shops within a matter of few months. Developed and used by the British Army - I suspect the majority of British People would support the British Army.

https://virusend.co.uk/