Member Info for stt1

SNN,
" It makes no sense to IPO at the current SP - they would be giving too much of the company away at too low a price."

I think they are desperately trying to list before H1 results. I think the Alphonso dispute started in Feb/Mar and forced their hand.

Radium,

The fact is avg Shares on Loan(SoL) have trebled since the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding and quadrupled since Sept 2020.
Given the timing of the fy results and closed period, there wouldn't have many opportunities for CEO to sell his holding, post Dec.

Who is lending out these increasingly number of shares on loan? Is it Mithaq, Tosca?

Q3 TU - 22nd Sept - Shares on Loan have quadrupled since this 'strong' update.

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

Remember blnx(now rthm, merged with trmr):
Blackrock were Blnx's largest II. Yet, they were lending out shares to short, hoping to make some money. However, blnx sp crashed due to a profit warning, resulting in Blackrock losing £30m.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10947330/BlackRock-restricts-share-lending-after-short-selling-attack-on-Blinkx.html

Eddie
"Only a hand full of posts here this year from you on TLY boards seems a very poor level of commitment"

There's not much news to discuss, is there? You can post something sensible and informative about TLY then maybe.
I see significant growth ahead for TLY. As you can see by the company/sector newsflow, you/Radium/Tricky have been completely wrong on TLY.

Thordon
" it would appear you miss Stt1."

Yes, funny that. If I don't post he complains. If I post he complains. lol

According to Euroclear, another big increase in avg Shares on Loan(SoL) in May.

The avg SoL have now trebled since Dec.

trmr sol:
sep 1141573 0.92%
Oct 1547922 1.25%
Nov 1457233 1.18%
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
Apr 3026422 2.41%
May 4645852 3.67%

Free to register:
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

Is it a coincidence that Shares on Loan have been increasing since the CEO sold a 1/3 of his holding in Dec?

Lasvelas,
The point is that because an ad tech company has $100m in the bank, it doesn't mean it is free money nor that they wouldn't need even more via a placing.

Sizmek filing for bankruptcy showed why ad tech companies need huge amounts of cash just to continue on a day to day basis.

After Sizmek filed for chapter 11, trmr showed a huge increase in debt provision from $2.8m to $22m. As the article, in the previous post shows, if one company within the ad tech eco system goes bust then it can have a domino impact on lots of others.

What's not known is the impact of losing Alphonso, data provider, on trmr's finances going forward. I don't think that will be known for several months.
The alphonso dispute/court case and US listing timings are too much of a coincidence. They are trying to list before H1 results.

Huge increase in debt provision, which happened after sizmek filed for Chapter 11...

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

Help to Buy owners moving home find rising house prices have bumped up their debts - and created a nice little earner for the government

There was a 40% spike in buyers using Help to Buy at the end of 2020
The deposit-boosting Government scheme helped them buy amid rising prices
But mooted house price fall could see them struggle to pay it back down the line
Meanwhile, those who took out Help to Buy loans years ago now face repaying significantly more than they borrowed.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9621947/Help-Buy-owners-rising-house-prices-bumped-debts.html

Gsmiley
"At least to the extent TRMR wants to raise working capital."

Odd why they need a placing to raise working capital given they recently claimed they have $130m in the bank.

However, it's not surprising given the way inventory payments work, where payments to customers are usually made months before payments to supplies.

The ad tech model works by DSPs/SSPs, partnering with each other. It is usually the case that the company would pay their 'supplier' (other ad tech companies) around 60 days but receive their cut from 'customers' (other ad tech companies) around 90 days. That gap("inventory payments") has to be covered from their own cash or they setup credit facilities.

"Brands and agencies often pay DSPs on 90-day or even 120-day cycles. But DSPs pay SSPs between 30 to 60 days."

"DSPs shoulder this burden directly because they constantly owe money to inventory suppliers. The Trade Desk took out a $200 million loan in 2017 to preserve liquidity while it bridges inventory payments. MediaMath has raised more than $600 million, including $225 million last year."

https://adexchanger.com/online-advertising/sizmeks-bankruptcy-is-changing-how-the-supply-side-manages-dsp-debts/

For fy2020, trmr already reported lower net cash from operating activities due to the record H2 and Q4....

"Net cash from operating activities of $35.2 million (2019: $45.1 million) mainly due to working capital requirements during record H2 and Q4 2020 performance"

"Although the Company have paid dividends and share buybacks in the past, the Company does not anticipate paying any dividends in the foreseeable future. The Company currently intend to retain future earnings, if any, to finance operations and expand its business. "

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Krusty,
"the SP here has stagnated over 3 & 5 years"

Brexit was 5 yrs ago and provided uncertainty. Together with the uncertainty of government, will it be May, Johnson or Labour?.

With HBs, it's pointless looking at the previous 5 yrs, as the uncertainty was political and not to do with the sector.
With any investment I think you have to look at the bull/bear points and form an opinion based on the information available. So with housing market, it's previous housing cycles, when & how the previous property bubbles have burst, whether there are similar factors in place, affordability, tax advantages, FTB affordability etc.

Previously there was a more favourable for Buy to Let investors but now is no longer a favcurable environment.
FTB are priced out of the market.

London has been a magnet for international investors. However, prices have recently been falling there.

Krusty,
Different views/bull&bear points is what makes a market.

I've always believed if the bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger.
Likewise, if the bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger.

Good luck with your holding.

I'll look at buying in once I believe the bear points are factored into the price.

Instadeth,
" How will the NASDAQ listing affect the UK listing?"

The 2 should track each other. The problem is PIs will be anxiously looking at the US market in the evenings to see how the US price is doing. If US Peers crash then trmr's US sp will most likely follow. After all it is risen on the back of US Peers.

If trmr's US price crashes then there is likely to be a rush for the door when the UK market opens the following trading day.
There will also likely be an arb in play with traders trading the difference between the US & UK price. This happened with the rthm(now trmr)/Yume (US listed) takeover in 2017.

Krusty,
My original question was "why do you think house price rises to new highs are good for HBs," which you have failed to answer.

"(are you choosing to ignore the bits that don't fit with your deramping agenda?)"

Can you please tell me which bits I've ignored? My view is consistent.

The H2B scheme is for 1st time buyers and has regional PRICE CAPS. If house price rise then the prices will go beyond the price caps. Therefore, ftb will not be able to use the H2B scheme. Given the widening gap between avg wages and avg house prices, increasingly affordablility is a major issue.
The way the prices will rise will lead to a bigger house price crash. Prices tend to rise when they are in a bubble.

I re-state my stance, "I think such rises will have a detrimental impact on HBs and the property market."

Everyone will have a different opinion on where they see the housing market going. If you believe the current steep rises are sustainable then feel free to load up and hold.

HBs face increasing challenges over the next few months. It's only the beginning of the 'interesting' period, when these challenges will hit.

As has usually happened in the past, the sp rises on the day of any perceived 'good news' and then falls back the next 1-2 days.

Krusty,
"... or higher..."

Why do you think the house price rising to new highs are good for HB?
I don't. I think such rises will have a detrimental impact on HBs and the property market.

1gw,
"there is a premium on current information. So latest quarter or latest 3 quarters are likely to be more use in forming a view on how the business is performing than going back to the last full financial year's figures."

I think the latest fy 2020 audited results are more relevant than the 12month figures you quote. The audited fy2020 figures clearly show that the business didn't grow significantly compared to the previous year.
I think the figures you quote are distorted.

If you believe the figures you quote are more relevant than the audit results and show growth then are you loading up and 'holding' until the next fy audited results or are you hoping others will?
I'm sure there are several PIs, who were caught here on the previous spikes, in 2016-17 (eq sp high 589) or 2013-14 (eq sp high around £28) and so have been at a loss for years would be hoping others will buy in so they can sell out.

Given your bullish comments in 2017 and now, are you holding for another year or selling on the spike? The eq sp is only around 25% higher than when you held rthm at eq sp of 589p.

Article on Trmr IPO
Why do they need to raise $100m if they have sufficient money in the bank?

The way inventory payments work and the fact they had a huge 11fold increase in debt provision after Sizmek filed for Chapter 11 will provide you with the answer.

With the figures mentioned in this article, you would think that nobody is thinking of selling at this point, wouldn't you? All the longs must be loading up and holding at 800p for next year's bumper figures wouldn't they?.
Let's see what happens?

Ad-tech co Tremor files for Nasdaq IPO at $1.5b valuation

"Revenue in 2020 was $212 million, down 34.9% from 2019 but revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was $71 million, up 83.9% from the corresponding quarter of 2020. Net profit was $2.1 million in all of 2020 but rose to $12.9 million in the first quarter of 2021."

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-ad-tech-co-tremor-files-for-nasdaq-ipo-at-15b-valuation-1001372737

1gw,
These are your comments when I posted the latest fy audited figures..

"Out of date stt1. If you remember there was a little global difficulty in 1H20.
Look at 2H FY20 and 1Q FY21 to see how the business is performing."
"$215m Net revenue
$ 87m Adj EBITDA
$ 54m Net cash generated by operating activities"
Therefore, you are implying that fy2021 will be significantly ahead of the fy2020, since you claim the latest audited fy2020 figures are 'out of date'.

Are you back your conviction, load up and holding for 1-2 yrs, given your figures or are you hoping others will be so you can sell?
You were holding rthm(trmr) when they last rose on bullish comments to eq sp of 589p, so why not this time?

Or are you now planning to sell due to the facts I've posted that the sp rises on bullish comments and falls when it comes to events?.

Plus the facts I've posted regarding:
Placing.
Overhang.
Court Case.

I've maintained that they are desperately trying to list before H1 results.

1gw
"$215m Net revenue
$ 87m Adj EBITDA
$ 54m Net cash generated by operating activities"

"I've posted what I believe to be 1Q FY21 TTM (trailing twelve months) figures. "

Thank you for posting your expectations based on your TTM figures.

I think the company is desperately trying to list before H1 results. I back that up with my previously mentioned concerns over:
Placing.
Overhang
Court case.

Given you're very bullish, expecting growth, cash generation, will you be backing your conviction, not selling any and holding for the next 1-2yrs?

Housebuilding industry continues to face difficulties

"New-build price hikes could be on the cards following a warning from leading industry figures.

Price rises in materials are set to make new build homes more expensive according to sector experts which could have an impact on First time buyers wanting to get on the property ladder."

“The rise in new housing construction activity is likely to have been partly driven by housebuilders being encouraged by the UK’s property market running hot due to the Stamp Duty holiday. This is coupled with the approaching reopening of the UK economy which would have improved business confidence levels throughout March, prompting firms to progress residential building projects."

https://www.todaysconveyancer.co.uk/main-news/housebuilding-industry-continues-face-difficulties/

Yield,
"re Toscafund - their decision to reduce due to being a UCITs find is very much a speculation"

Thank you for confirming my previous stance on Tosca, ie you were speculating, and so my previous evidence stands to be correct.
As stated earlier, it's always better if posters back up their comments with links otherwise it is speculation. Majority of posts on the BBs are pure speculation.

Tosca held over 29% of rthm(now trmr) in 2016-17, ie around the time of the previous US Election. The eq sp went as high as 589p on bullish comments before falling back towards 100p based on events, industry challenges, court cases and the fact rthm(now trmr) also operated a full stack. Rthm took legal action against DataXu in 2017.

I think Tosca are selling because of their experience of holding onto rthm(now trmr) when it reached it's previous highs of 589p in 2016-17 and the court action. I back this up with the fact their sales were around 580p-600p. (so similar level to 2017)

Why sell, having held for many years, just WEEKS before the US listing?

It just adds to the growing list of bear points.

Currently:
Pubm, down again 4.76%, down 41% from a month ago
Magn, virtually unchanged, down 26% from a month.
The Trade Desk, virtually unchanged, down 21% from a month ago.

Notbot,

It's more credible if posters back up their stance with links, otherwise it's speculation. My reply was with links.

Tosca held 29% of rthm(trmr) in 2016-17 during the previous US Election. The eq sp then went to 589p before falling back on events.
The sp here was significantly lower a year ago. If you believe the fy results justify an 8 fold increase in valuation then fine, load up.
I think it's best to trade.

They are desperately trying to dual list before the bubble has firmly crashed..
Watch:
the overhang.
News Corp lock in period ends next month.
court cases.
Alphonso court case. Losing the LG contract is likely to impact results going forward.
Placing.
Raising money despite having $130m in the bank. I think because of inventory payments.

Don't forget they had a huge $22m debt provision in fy2019 because of inventory payments, after Sizmek filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The final figures from the company speak for themselves.

Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf