Member Info for stt1

Friday's US close of $17.90 is eq to UK 649p, which is lower than Friday close of 660p.

Therefore, expect the UK to open lower. If the UK sp drops substantially the US will follow.

Vicious circle until the gap narrows closer to par.

No Q2/H1 results.
Shares on Loan increasing.
Court case against data provider.
Huge placing. Offer closes Tues.
Tosca selling days before IPO.
Questionable history of events and ex-directors.

and shares on loan (sol) have trebled since Ofer sold 1/3 of his holding in Dec. SoL has also quadrupled since last Sept.

sep 1141573 0.92%
Oct 1547922 1.25%
Nov 1457233 1.18%
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
Apr 3026422 2.41%
May 4645852 3.67%

Free to register:
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

Is it a coincidence that Shares on Loan have been increasing every month since the CEO sold a 1/3 of his holding in Dec?

Is it a coincidence Tosca had been holding for years and were selling just DAYS before the IPO?

I think the timing of the dual listing is questionable.

Alphonso, their data provider, court case/US Listing.

The need for a US listing became urgent around March time... The Alphonso court case filing was last week.
Therefore, they would have known many weeks ago, maybe March, of the dispute with Alphonso. Companies try and resolve the differences before taking court action.

So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).

On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.

"I've been here from the first day that blinkx was spun out of Autonomy. "

The blnxkx IPO was eq sp 530p (45p old money) in 2007, 14 yrs ago. The current trmr US sp is about 10% above it.

They highest was in Jan 2014 at eq sp around £28 when Shares on Loan also surged. They eventually crashed and issued a profit warning, despite claiming only a few weeks earlier that everything was fine.

Who was behind Autonomy/Blinkx IPO? Sushovan Hussain and Mike Lynch.

When you google Sushovan Hussain, you get
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/13/ex-autonomy-cfo-sushovan-hussain-five-years-hewlett-packard

You don't think the IPO was impacted by the Hussain/Autonomy connection?

Lasvelas,

Good post and well done with your trade.

If people believe it's a short term blip, load up and wait for the huge gains you expect. If not then trade them.

As mentioned:
In 2013-14 blnx/rthm(now trmr) quarupled to eq sp £28 on the back of bullish comments before crashing to around 400p within 6 months based on events.

In 2016-17 rthm(now trmr) the eq sp tripled to 589p on before falling back on events.

The current sp is only marginally above rthm(now trmr) 2017 level.


It's nice to have an investment decision proven right so conclusively by events. Read the company/sector newsflow.

Tricky
What does outsourcing of PPE got to do with TLY?

TLY operate a diversified business model, which has been shown to be the right strategy. They now have 3 divisions within their diversified model:

1) Urgent Care
2) Planned Care
3) Insourcing

That diversified business model has done well during the pandemic.

Their business model is the way forward, as can be seen with the new govn proposals.
The proposals were expected and they are prepared for them.

They are now in the right place, at the right time for growth.

Gdog,
"The US ad tech market ran too far, too fast. "

The shares rose on the back of the hotly contested US Elections and covid. Those short term movements weren't on the back of fundamentals but hype.

Look back to pre-US Elections, several ad tech companies were valued around 1/3 to 1/2 revenues.

eg
Jan 2020 - Trmr paid around 1/3 revenues for Unruly.
https://digiday.com/media/paltry-price-paid-unruly-rattles-consolidating-ad-tech-market/

Apr 2019 - The merger between rthm & Taptica to form trmr was around 1/3 revenues.

https://news.sky.com/story/video-ad-firms-forge-bigger-google-rival-with-260m-merger-11621590

US Elections are over for another 4 yrs, covid restrictions are being eased so fewer people are now sitting in front of the TV.

The hype around ad tech companies will soon die down and realistic valuations return.

It was similar in 2016-17, during the previous US Elections.
The rthm eq sp rose to eq sp 589p on bullish comments but fell back on events, towards 100p.

If trmr had listed 6 months ago then I think they would have benefited from the early rises in the ad tech bubble. Now US Peers are down significantly from their highs.

On Nasdaq they closed at 17.90, which is eq sp 648p. This is still lower than the 660p they closed at in UK.

UK could move lower on Monday morning to narrow the gap.

The fact other US peers also fell on Friday doesn't inspire confidence.

They closed $17.90 or eq 643p, down 5.79%. UK closed down at 660p, so still a gap.

In other news, US Peers:

Magnite closed down 6.7%
Pub closed down 2.32%
Perion closed down 1.1%
TTD closed down 2.03%

Pubmatic $69.92 1st March, now $33.71
Perion $25 2nd March, now $16.14
Magnite $62 12th Feb, now $29.49
The Trade Desk $90 22nd Dec peak, now $60.88

Radium.
"Tonight’s news about the Tremor IPO is particularly pleasing for me"

What do you think of the IPO now? Is it still pleasing for you?
trmr have dropped 120p (5%) since your post on Monday.

Ginodog
"“Are you loading and holding at £8 for huge gains?
He made exactly the same comment at £5….£6…….£7…..hahahahahahahaha."

What a difference 5 days makes.

Yes, so did you load up at 800p...
no wait, 700p...
no wait, 600p...

and are waiting for the huge gains??
;-)

oh and ... back to you.. "hahahahahahahaha"

Bru
"as per an apology to you, when it drops down to 80 p (that is since you have been parroting the same c....since)"

It doesn't bother me whether you accept you were wrong and apologises.
I've have mentioned the industry challenges, court cases etc since 589p (not 80p as you state) in 2017.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=118

I've said the sp rises on bullish comments and falls on events.

Look at 2013-14, the blnx eq sp quadrupled, from eq 760p to £28 on bullish comments, then crashed 60% on the back of questionable events.

Similar happened in 2016-17, previous US Election, when the sp tripled from eq 188p to 589p on bullish comments before crashing to around 100p because of industry challenges. As expected.

Blnx IPO was at 45p, eq to 530p.

Read post of 16th June 22.08
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/

Bru
"Is it a coincidence that you have been wrong all along about this share and you could have just be humble about it and say “sorry folks, I was wrong”"

Doesn't look like I was wrong after all, does it? Down 15% back to 660p.

However, I won't wait for an apology from you. Maybe your comment "sorry folks, I was wrong".
;-)

Bru
"do not panic the company is solid with loads of cash."

As you well know, the way inventory payments work, ad tech companies need huge amounts of cash just to keep going. The Trade Desk raised $200m, MediaMath $600m.

This was highlighted when Sizmek filed for Chapter 11.

Plus, the impact of losing Alphonso, data provider, court case isn't yet known. In the meantime, they will still need to pay their suppliers.

The ad tech model works by DSPs/SSPs, partnering with each other. It is usually the case that the company would pay their 'supplier' (other ad tech companies) around 60 days but receive their cut from 'customers' (other ad tech companies) around 90 days. That gap("inventory payments") has to be covered from their own cash or they setup credit facilities.

"Brands and agencies often pay DSPs on 90-day or even 120-day cycles. But DSPs pay SSPs between 30 to 60 days."

"DSPs shoulder this burden directly because they constantly owe money to inventory suppliers. The Trade Desk took out a $200 million loan in 2017 to preserve liquidity while it bridges inventory payments. MediaMath has raised more than $600 million, including $225 million last year."

https://adexchanger.com/online-advertising/sizmeks-bankruptcy-is-changing-how-the-supply-side-manages-dsp-debts/

Gino
"My point is that you use £28 as the reference point for your posts when the price only briefly hit this"

It doesn't matter if the eq sp only hit it briefly, the fact it did means it's the high.

Compare that eq sp £28 to today's Nasdaq IPO price of 683p.
The 683p is around 30% above the eq sp 589p rthm(now trmr) achieved in 2017, after the previous bullish comments following the previous US Election in 2016.

What's do you think of today's Nasdaq IPO price then?

short_squeeze
"Got to hand it to Tosca "

I've questioned this on here as a major bear point.
Why did Tosca sell days before the IPO given they had been holding for years?
They held over 29% of rthm(now trmr) around 2016-17, during the previous US Elections.

To me, Tosca selling and Shares on Loan trebling since Dec when the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding, are red flags.

From this week:
Methbot was the start of the major industry challenges.

After Methbot Conviction, Ad Industry Zeroes In On CTV As Fraud Hotspot

https://www.adexchanger.com/digital-tv/after-methbot-conviction-ad-industry-zeroes-in-on-ctv-as-fraud-hotspot/

The IAB, whose rules ad tech companies follow to comply with GDPR/CCPA/Privacy is being taken to court.

Ad tech players sell ads programmatically and it has been mentioned that they do not comply with GDPR/CCPA/Privacy laws.

This is likely to impact programmatic/rtb, as it did previously.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/16/adtech-data-breach-gdpr-complaint-is-headed-to-court-in-eu/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHBJZpqzHO24-fyywMymAMjYjmdXXFdG6-ZjULcRJSZaTa1vaVeONP8vmWVVXY-mpvbpgdo8iQWwRUAiNtWkEuCmGYegqkaOUxqrb3Am94nS7inU6rf_RPapDirBmwtqPD5zUAjrMxM2_Wp-QFeD_DPI3cog5vcWLnvnKwjpKWXL

London house prices suffer biggest monthly fall in a decade as pandemic mini-boom judders to halt

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/london-house-prices-fall-furlough-stamp-duty-holiday-b940950.html

I think the crucial point is whether investors notice the trebling of shares on loan since Dec, when the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding. Also Tosca selling just days before the IPO, despite holding for years.

The avg SoL have now trebled since Dec.

sep 1141573 0.92%
Oct 1547922 1.25%
Nov 1457233 1.18%
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
Apr 3026422 2.41%
May 4645852 3.67%

Free to register:
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html