Member Info for stt1

Radium,
"when Tremor’s sp gets a little top heavy. "

It's already top heavy. Following the US Peers.

All US Peers down around 40-50% since peak, achieved during the ad tech bubble.

Pubmatic $69.92 1st March, now $34
Perion $25 2nd March, now $16
Magnite $62 12th Feb, now $31
The Trade Desk $903 22nd Dec peak, now $62 (with 10-1 split)

gdog,
Ad tech is in a hype/bubble.

Only a year or so ago, there were several ad tech companies M&A at around 1/3-1/2 of sales.

In fact Trmr paid Unruly 1/3 of their sales in Jan 2020.

https://digiday.com/media/paltry-price-paid-unruly-rattles-consolidating-ad-tech-market/

GSmiley,
"For the next few weeks, the sp in the US will be driven by investor demand."

Agree. They are listing hoping to ride the US Ad tech bubble.
As predicted, they are desperately trying to list before H1 results.
And before News Corp lock in period ends next month

Placing
Court case.
Overhang.

From TUs:

Placing.
Given they have $130m in cash, why do they need a huge placing?

"The principal purposes of this offering are to create a public market for our ADSs, facilitate greater access to the public equity markets, increase our visibility in the marketplace, as well as to obtain additional capital. We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital, general corporate purposes and to fund incremental growth, including for possible acquisitions. However, we do not currently have any definitive or preliminary plans with respect to the use of proceeds for such purposes."
https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-171330/

Court Case:
"On May 18, 2021, Tremor Video, Inc. (Tremor) filed a complaint against
Alphonso, Inc. (Alphonso) in the Supreme Court of the State of New York,
County of New York. The claim is for breach of contract, tortious interference
with business relations, intentional interference with contractual relations,
unjust enrichment, and conversion. The lawsuit arises out of Alphonso’s breach
of a Strategic Partnership Agreement and an Advance Payment Obligation and
Security Agreement (Security Agreement) with Tremor, along with related
misconduct. Tremor complaint is for damages and other relief, including an
order foreclosing on Alphonso’s collateral under the Security Agreement, from
the Court."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/TRMR-Q1-2021-Trading-Update-250521.pdf

Overhang.

Is it a coincidence that they are desperately trying to list before News Corp lock in period ends??? 18month lock in from Jan 2020.

6.91% holding.

"Under the terms of the Transaction, News
Corp will be subject to an 18-month lockup period."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TRMR-Acquisition-of-Unruly-060120.pdf

Bru
"Tremor is doing well"

Where are the Q2/H1 expectations to show what impact losing Alphonso, data provider has had?

The IPO is as predicted.

Watch:
the overhang.
Investigations into rtb/fraud.
court cases.
Placing.

In terms of doing well, the latest audited final figures, fy2020, from the company speak for themselves.

Total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)

These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)

""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""

Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.

Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Gino,
"I said the “the price barely touched this”. "

Now that you agree with my calc and it isn't utter BS as you originally claimed, I won't wait for an apology. I back up my posts with links.

Look at the blnkx(now rthm) IPO, 14 yrs ago, Sushovan Hussain & Mike Lynch, ex-Autonomy execs, were behind the IPO.

The IPO price was eq sp 530p (45p old money).

There are several holders here who got in at bnlx IPO and held at the eq sp around £28.

It explains why they don't want to hear of any red flags or industry challenges.

Eddie,
"In the absence of a TU 'PRIO'R to the IPO Launch I am NOT expecting any fire works with the IPO Launch Pricing."

As expected.

They're listing before H1 results, so there is no indication of how much losing Alphonso, data provider, has impacted them.

I believe the need for a US listing became urgent around March time... The Alphonso court case filing was mid May.
Therefore, they would have known, maybe March, of the dispute with Alphonso. Companies try and resolve the differences before taking court action.

So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).

On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

That tells me there was a sudden need to list within days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.

I've previously mentioned the ongoing investigation into rtb/programmatic/gprd/ccpa/IAB. I see these as a major challenge for all ad tech players using programmatic, including Trmr.

IAB, whose guidelines are used to comply with the rules is being taken to court. If IAB lose then I believe it will have major consequences for programmatic/rtb.

https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/06/16/iab-tech-lab-sued-over-rtb-vungle-acquire-jetfuel/

Gino
"The “12 month high”. You are taking the highest reference point that the share ever reached "

So you accept my figures are correct, now that I have provided evidence?

Gino
I say 'buying/holding'.

What part of the word 'holding' don't you understand?
I've been consistent in terms of the previous 'highs'.

Blnx(now rthm, merged with trmr) quadrupled in 2013-14 from 760p to around eq sp of £28 on the back of bullish comments.
They had a placing at 195p (eq sp of £23) in Dec 2013, which was also well received. The NEXT month, the sp crashed based on questionable events, followed by a profit warning, change of company name, business model, selling off operations.

Also in 2013-14 whilst the sp quadrupled, the Shares on Loan rose significantly (as they are now) and it was found Cayman Island outfit was shorting the shares.

Is it a coincidence that this time the Shares on Loan have trebled since Dec (when the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding) and Tosca is selling!!!!

Ginodog
"He keeps banging on about old Blinkx investors buying at £28 (£2.80 in old money) and being desperate to recoup." "The price barely touched this price for a day. "

You've forgotten the merger terms, 33/28, when they merged with taptica in Apr 2019 to form trmr.

Read the facts for yourself.
12 month high = 235p
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2014/11/12/shares/news-and-analysis/blinkx-licks-its-wounds-cgNwj6hwpAAyox11FUNbiM/article.html

10 for 1 share split = £23.50
https://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/5678159/RhythmOne-share-consolidation-approved.html

Rthm/taptica merger, now trmr = 33/28
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/213872/rhythmone-board-recommends-merger-with-taptica-213872.html

Therefore, 12 month high x 10 x 33/28

= (235p x 10) x 33/28

= 2769p or around £28

current sp 800p
so for the rthm/blnx(now trmr) holders who were buying/holding in Jan 2014 before the big crash are down around 70% on that holding.

QED

In 2013-14 the eq sp rose on bullish comments and then crashed on events and a profit warning.
From Jan 2014 to July 2014, they fell from eq sp £28 (2769p) to around 400p, a massive 85% fall within 6 months.

In 2016-17 the eq sp again rose on bullish comments to 589p and fell back on events (industry challenges which I mentioned in 2017).

Qwerty,
"before but the US market is killing this share now."

Agree.
Magnite closed down 2.58%
Pubm closed down 4.43%,
Perion closed down 3.9%
The Trade Desk closed down 2.6%

qwerty
"If this listing was back in November - January we would be already over 1000."

Agree.
Moving to Nasdaq (and not dual list as they are now doing) before the ad tech bubble (Nov-Jan) and US Election hype would have boosted the sp significantly.

Dual listing is likely to mean PIs constantly looking at US market to see what is happening. If US market or US Peers crash then it could be too late for UK investors, with AIM shares, to get out the following morning.

Bru,
"his sources aren't real. Just follow the FCA and you will be fine"

They are 2 completely different things.
You're quoting declared short positions over 0.5%. I'm quoting avg Shares on Loan. Shares on Loan can be used to short and that figure can be below the declared 0.5% per hedge fund.
So multiple hedge funds with < 0.5% won't show up on your list.

The avg Shares on Loan have trebled since Dec when the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding. They have also been increasing every month since then.
Tosca who bought in after the previous big short on blnx are now selling only days before the IPO. For me, Tosca selling and SoL increasing is a red flag

The Shares on Loan could be used for arb trading but I think it is a concern that they have trebled since the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding.

The avg SoL have now trebled since Dec.
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
Apr 3026422 2.41%
May 4645852 3.67%
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

Blackrock and Shares on Loan/Shorting on blnx/rthm(now trmr):
Blackrock, their largest II was increasing their holdng AND lending out shares.
The blnx/rthm(now trmr) shares rose in 2013-14 on bullish comments. The Shares on Loan were also rising significantly. Blackrock were loaning out the shares.

They were caught out because Blnx issued an unexpected profit warning in July 2014.

Blackrock were then forced to stop loaning out shares:
BlackRock restricts share lending after short selling attack
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10947330/BlackRock-restricts-share-lending-after-short-selling-attack-on-Blinkx.html


Who is loaning out the shares this time?

They listing before H1 results, so there is no indication of how much losing Alphonso has impacted them.

Going forward, it's worth keeping an eye on Shares on Loan, which have already trebled since Dec, the court case and the overhang.

US Peers operate a different ad tech model. Their sp have also fallen back signficantly over the past few months, since their peak.

Ballymoss,
"Your track record is so bad that any bear posting from you can be treated as a recommendation to buy TRMR."

In 2013-14, the rthm(now trmr) sp rose on bullish comments to £28 and then crashed based on events.
In 2016-17, the rthm(now trmr) sp rose on bullish comments to 589p and then fell based on events.

If you feel it's different this time, load up at 800p and hold.

If you see my posts as an indicator to buy then go ahead, load up at 800p and hold.

I think it's best to trade before the next set of events results in the sp crashing.

The IPO is exactly as predicted. Listing before H1 results.

Placing.
Court Case
Overhang.

Placing
*******
Why do they need to raise around $150m when only weeks ago they said they have $130m in the bank.

Look at what they said in their fy results
For fy2020, trmr already reported lower net cash from operating activities due to the record H2 and Q4....

"Net cash from operating activities of $35.2 million (2019: $45.1 million) mainly due to working capital requirements during record H2 and Q4 2020 performance"

"Although the Company have paid dividends and share buybacks in the past, the Company does not anticipate paying any dividends in the foreseeable future. The Company currently intend to retain future earnings, if any, to finance operations and expand its business. "

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pd

The avg SoL have now trebled since Dec.
****************************************
trmr sol:
sep 1141573 0.92%
Oct 1547922 1.25%
Nov 1457233 1.18%
Dec 1265065 1.02%
Jan 1382006 1.11%
Feb 2158481 1.74%
Mar 2941789 2.37%
Apr 3026422 2.41%
May 4645852 3.67%

Free to register:
https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

Is it a coincidence that Shares on Loan have trebled since the CEO sold a 1/3 of his holding in Dec?

Is it a coincidence that Tosca, who had been holding for years, have been selling recently, JUST DAYS before the IPO? They held previously held over 29% of rthm(now trmr).

Whereas News Corp were locked in so couldn't sell.

According to the SEC document, the placing $173m.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849396/000119312521189808/d50431df1a.htm

It seems a huge increase in placing amount. Was $100m before.

Given they have $130m in the bank, why do they need such a huge placing?

qwertyii
"The ad tech market feels like it has cooled of alot lately"

Agree. Look at the sp for yourselves.

US Peers down around 50% since peak.
Pubmatic $69.92 1st March, now $35
Perion $25 2nd March, now $17
Magnite $62 12th Feb, now $32
The Trade Desk $903 22nd Dec peak, now $601

Check the sp for yourself..

Very odd timing of the IPO, given the recent events.

Shares on Loan have trebled since the CEO sold 1/3 of his holding in Dec. Quadrupled since Sept.

Tosca the long time II, selling recently, just DAYS before the IPO, despite having held for years.

Trmr file a court case against Alphonso, their data provider.

News Corp lock in period ends next month.

So, it does look like they are listing before H1 period end, which raises lots of questions about the timing of the above events.

So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).

On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf

Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf

That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.

Placing.
Court case.
Overhang.

Radium
"Yield’s background is in Capital Markets. His experience provides a welcome intellectual counter to the raison d’etre of our long-standing resident antagonist."

Your mate, Yield_Fanatic, the one who you know so much about (works in Capital Markets etc)

Could he please post his opinion on the latest SEC development and especially the huge amount of placing?
Unless he's given up, in which case it's ok.

TIA.