Member Info for stockpickfree

Me too! I got stopped out at the price you suggested and then as luck would have it wasn't around for a couple of days so missed the big drop. I am sure I would have got back in too early. As it happened I got back in on the way up at 2.74. So the net net is I have almost a 20% larger holding. It won't matter if we don't get the orders, but if we do, and the stock goes "to da moon" as the Yanks say, this will have been a very fortunate interlude. Feels fantastic, I 'll say that and totally luck, not the result of good trading. :-) Of course

You can't really wish both long and shorts good luck, it is a zero sum game! Personally I hope any short in Carclo gets royally shafted, as that means we longs will have made the big bucks. If we get some large orders everyone in at these prices will make serious money, depending on how large their positions are obviously. This smells like at least a two or three bagger to me. It is a really exciting proposition. :-)

I can't find a large short position in Carclo. This http://shorttracker.co.uk/ shows that 1.48% of the total float is short, an insignificant percentage, although I don't know how reliable it is. And it is just one fund manager, BlackRock. Actually I would prefer the short interest to be larger, because if a big order is announced it will add fuel to the fire, but am acting on the assumption that this data is in the right ball park. What you say about the risks is of course absolutely correct, and anyone going long needs to be aware that they will inevitably lose money if the technology is unsuccessful, but then if there was no risk there wouldn't be any upside either as this would be priced in. Personally I try and get the all big swing up, which means getting in now, but clearly the lower risk strategy is to wait for the technology to prove itself. You could still make some money doing that. Your stop loss price seems pretty sensible to me, looking at the chart.

It IS ironic that Atmel is up and Carclo down on the same news, especially when the revenue will have a much more transformative effect on the tiny company vis a vis the larger. I think it is explicable on the grounds of the relative expectations. To the extent that Carclo has any profile at all (and it doesn't have much) those tracking it expect it to go up. Like all of us on here, they can see the potential. Atmel has/had lower expectations and a lot of this increase is probably short covering. I don't think there is a large short position in Carclo. But you can only go up so far on short coveting, Carclo is a much better buy than Atmel and will significantly outperform it in the medium to long term.

It is disappointing that Xsense revenue continues to be an expectation and promise rather than a reality. We need something concrete, and the reaction of the share price today suggest that I am not alone in thinking that. What I found interesting from the conference call transcript is how many of the analysts' questions focused on Xsense. It really is the main engine of growth in that company. Which means that they will be focusing on it with a laser like focus. And it was exciting to see how quite positive the feedback on XSense is from their potential customers during testing. If anyone reading this discussion is considering whether or not to buy in to Carclo, I suggest you check that out!

It can't be denied that this is disappointing news. Yet further delays and slippage. A reduction in forecast from a major customer, according to Atmel. Still we knew it would happen didn't we, or why else did the FD exercise those options? As I myself predicted the share price continues to stagnate. in the absence of positive news. Off more than three per cent on the day as I write this. BUT I am now far more positive, upon news of the sale I was bearish short term. Not any more. The bad news is out. There is no froth in this stock price at all. No hot money. Just those in the now, holding it tightly. Why sell now when so much is in prospect? This has to be the best risk reward opportunity on the whole London market. Sure there are plays which offer a greater speculative return. But they also come with far greater risks. What is the downside here? A fall in the whole market, not impossible by any means, but then all boats will go down with that tide. Or maybe some bad news from the ongoing court cases. That is it. The possible risk is limited to that. What 20% at most from here? Compare that to the potential upside. This is a sexy product that everyone can understand. We have a little gem here that no-one knows about. If the orders start coming in this stock will go through the roof. A double in short order is the least of it. It could be much more. It is always darkest before the dawn. I can see the rays of that dawn through the words of what seems, prima facie, to be a disappointing conference call from Atmel. :-)

I am long here, very long vis a vis my total portfolio, but I wish I could be as sanguine as you. This can't be good news in the short term. Unless the FD has REALLY pressing financial needs, which seems unlikely with regards to such a paltry sum, as you say , but is of course possible, I don't see why he would not wait to sell until after any really positive news in the trading statement, in the next trading window. Which means there can't be any really positive news. Just more of the same, jam tomorrow not today. Long term it won't matter, either we are going to get some big news, and the stock will fly, or we won't. This sale makes no difference to that medium to long term. But short term we should expect the price to either drift or go down. This sale suggests to me that nothing exciting is imminent for quite some time. Hope I am wrong, but it really looks that way.