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It’s still a matter of timing even if you think this company has long term potential, no?

Are there factors which will depress the share price short term?

For me the second largest investor in the company after the founder (when they started dumping) offloading their entire position pretty much as a fire sale is a big headwind for the stock price short term. Maybe they are going to stop now, but why would they? They tried to take the company over and failed. Now they have no faith in it.

The just hired Head of US Sales has quit the company and it hasn’t yet been announced? Why?

They are not even close to making a profit so were burning cash every month to pay for this expensive new hire that then left unannounced. So there will eventually have to be a cash call surely. Where else are they getting the money to pay for this bad recruitment and all the other costs connected with launching in the US? Tony and the finance guy said they had enough cash to get them through till April this year I think? Correct me if I’m wrong, I thought I heard that on a call.

Plenty of time to get in again even if you believe in the company long term.

What evidence have you got for your assertion that TP have finished selling?

.

Anyone have any insight into why he has gone? Is he taking any of his (small) team with him?

His appointment was only announced on 1 November 2021 so he’s barely lasted a year, if he even managed that. Just a bad hire? Problems with the company?

This in the big growth area for the company geographically. New Distribution deal, new bottling plant.

I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

I agree with your broad analysis Roger.

But my perspective is that in either of your scenarios, an offload by TP having given up, or a long term campaign to take over the company after keeping the SP low by judicious selling, we aren’t going anywhere, short term. Probably even medium term.

So I’m out for the moment. But always monitoring.

I could be wrong and we could take off after stellar results or stellar guidance. My fear though is that any nice move up will be very quickly cut off at the knees by TP selling into the rally.

So it’s a possible short term trade, but not worth holding at present. There are other, better opportunities.

And it might not even be a good short term trade. Weak results and who is going to support the SP?

TP?

Maybe I’m wrong, I often am, but I see no indication that they are actually buying.

Just selling maybe.

There’s something strange going on with Taylor Partners.

As I understand it they tried to get seats on the board which was rebuffed by Tony and the current management team. They clearly felt that current policies were not delivering shareholder value quickly enough.

Are they now unloading their (large) position taken as activist investors?

Correct me if you have superior knowledge and I’m wrong, but that’s my understanding of the history here..

My mistake then. Apologies.

It must have been the raise in January I saw.

Need to learn how to read analyst forecasts.

I thought it was very upbeat indeed, actually. But as they said, execution is the key.

I found it interesting that the projected financial forecast included a share dilution next year to 337 million shares outstanding.

We always knew that was coming, but nice to have it confirmed.

To your point about cash burn they raised 3.5 million in January and had 1.9 million left at the last results, so they spent 1.6 million (plus whatever they had as cash before) over the period.

Clearly they are going to have to have another cash raise in the new year, or soon after, and that’s why they changed financial advisors.

To be fair, the launch of the US team will have eaten up a lot of that cash. So it was for investment purposes not just paying the electricity bills.

Exactly.

They call it clearing an “overhang” in the trade I believe.

I bought some more today too. Should have bought more whilst it was lower!

(UK there is absolutely no rational reason for stock moves, none at all. Not even for any price at any one time. The economic theory that stocks are fairly priced and always reflect all the available information is total boolocks. Just fear and greed. And overreactions to the up and downside).

Relax! I don’t think you can watch every buy and sell, you’ll drive yourself bonkers.

This isn’t a day trader’s stock it is a slow burn.

I bought some today. Is it the bottom? Who knows. But I’m not going to sweat it, if it goes down from here it goes down. It’s pretty much impossible to find the bottom anyway even though everyone tries to, or tells you they did.

I applaud everyone’s enthusiasm and passion. And it is good to have an active board. But you really need to take the long term view here.

That’s a very good sign. There’s clearly a lot of work going on behind the scenes in the US market.

I’m wondering when the US bottling deal gets announced as that will have a significant impact on the SP as these depressed levels. The CEO says “at the back end of the year” which to me says November/December rather than October.

I guess we just have to watch the SP as that will give us the best forewarning…

I don’t think it is the market makers mate. There aren’t enough buyers, that’s the problem. We need some positive news from the company.

If there are lots of buyers the market makers have to mark the price up. What else can they do?

Revenue growth was solid in the circumstances, spectacular even in the US, with more to come. APAC still disappointingly a drag, although the worse is definitely behind us there.

The anaemic gross margin is what troubles me. We saw the same with Fevertree. The cost of transportation, raw materials such as glass really hit them and hits us too. The US bottling deal will make a huge difference to that, although Fevertree bottles in the US already of course.

On the investor call they talked about not needing a cash raise until next year, when they will be profitable. But they reserve the right to make one to grow the business. With these gross margins you have to feel the profitability due date will be pushed back. And since they are still burning cash obviously (despite their programme to reduce costs) you have to think there will be a cash call. and that’s why they changed their financial advisors recently.

That’s fine, I would support it, (I don’t agree with the poster who says that is the end) but it will depress the share price it seems to me.

I may not be popular here for saying all this. I still think the company is a great prospect, I’m just being honest and calling it as I see it. And of course could be completely wrong.

It is all about disappointing expectation.

The results were solid, they just weren’t what the most optimistic predictions made them out to be. The wish was father to the thought.

Then, as always, the market overreacted.

Whoever said that the news had leaked, hence the sell off in the last few days had it right. I don’t know if those big sells were from a short, or shorts. If so they are likely to cover soon, if they haven’t already.

For them it’s the reverse to the old saw. Sell the rumour, buy the news.

I hadn’t realised I would activate the swear filter! Lol.

The irony is that the unmentionable appendage is exactly what would be getting some loving attention from the long legged lovely as a rightful reward for such extraordinarily discriminating taste in tonic water…

(Sorry better stop before I get kicked of the board. :-) )

I agree.

Two totally different companies from a stock market and indeed premium brand perspective.

Fevertree has devalued it’s brand equity. You buy it at the discount supermarket next to the cheap canned tomatoes. East Imperial is aspirational, to drink it is to feel like you are a yacht or private jet in the company of a lissome, long legged lovely.

Who gazes at you longingly as the servant pours in the East Imperial to complete her ****tail.

I think anyway. ;-)

Very smart of you. Now is the time to buy.

As the old adage has it, buy when everyone else is selling, sell when everyone else is buying.

On another point, I don’t know how shorted this stock is. It doesn’t seem a particularly good company to short in my opinion, but you never know, there might be some spillover from Fevertree. Some kind of negative sentiment on the whole sector.

Maybe somebody on here knows the extent of the short interest?

If there are any they will have to run for cover if the results are as good as has been hinted at.

This stock could move up very very quickly if some of those recent big sells have been shorts taking a punt on a quick profit, mistakenly following the Fevertree short thesis.

What do they call that? A short squeeze!

It feels good!

If we HAVE bottomed this could be an absolutely fantastic time to add to, or take a position.

With Fevertree’s results out of the way (the fourth most shorted stock on the exchange according to IC), showing very solid revenue growth leading to those shorts to cover, you have to feel we’re going to see MUCH more spectacular growth in the exact same market, from our low base. With the US opening up to us after the hire of the new team and the deal with the Distributor there and APAC in full recovery mode from Covid at long last. And of course Europe, including the UK will be next. In 2023.

I’m making some adjustments to my portfolio to take advantage of this opportunity, which is unlikely to last long. Results are any day now.

This is a long term play. We get obsessed with the day to day moves of what is a highly volatile small cap stock with a relatively tiny float. Sometimes you have to see the bigger, more long term picture.

If we DO get the revenue growth we’re all predicting in the next few days we will look back on now, and our low low price and tiny market cap, with wonder. Woulda coulda shoulda remorse. Why didn’t we buy?

My guess is that there is an expectation that Fevertree is going to get hammered, but we’ll see.

If so this is absurdly overblown. East Imperial is at quite a different stage in it’s development. It’s in high growth mode.