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I don’t see what the big deal is?

There hasn’t been a change in sentiment towards the stock, that’s true. And the price is slowly stagnating unless and until something positive is announced.

That may continue for a while and if you’re short you’ll make some money and good luck to you. Longs will decide when to get back in, if they want to commit more money by contrast.

But there is still everything to play for here. I don’t see why you are gloating or why others are holding their hands up in despair. We’ve had two trading days since the financing. That’s no time at all in the great scheme of things.

When do you intend to cover your short? That is the interesting question. Assuming you have one. Or do you think we are going broke from here so you’ll keep the position open with a trailing stop?

Mik

The difference in our strategies is this:

If this company goes under (which is eminently possible but not (IMO) probable) you, without a stop loss, will lose most if not all of your “investment.”

I will lose the amount at which my stop is set at. And live to fight another day. There is always another company, another stock. I haven’t fallen in love with Genedrive.

If the company is successful and the share price soars we both get to to participate in the profits.

(I accept that there is a theoretical possibility of a massive gap down which means the stop loss isn’t hit, but there is nothing to be done about that. It’s a low risk here IMO).

Sky high of course.

I just wondered if you were under water or in profit?

You seemed pretty sarcastic about someone using a stop loss that was all.

They are about as basic as it gets. And all these long term holders (perhaps not you, I don’t know) who have held onto this stock with sky night averages rather than selling for a small loss are a testament to exactly why.

What’s your position size and average price, out of interest, Stephen11?

You did.

I’m almost hitting my stop loss from the position I took today and I expect it will be hit tomorrow. Which is a pain in the ass but one of those things…

The key thing is not to get trapped holding the bag with a volatile stock like this. You can always buy back in lower, having lived to fight another day.

What you can’t afford to do is hold on as it collapses. That is a world of pain.

Of course it might hit my stop and soar back up again! Once again, one of those things…

Trading is hard. It makes me laugh how people on here keep saying how easy it is and they keep making perfect trades.. It isn’t. And they haven’t. Or if they did it was largely luck.

I thought it would sustain a small rise on the removal of uncertainty I have to admit.

But it looks like the market is less than enamoured by the company falling into bed with Riverfort.

We need some good news. Without it I fear for the share price short term.

I’m back in. I doubt that I caught the bottom of the trading range but I’m in lower than I sold for on Thursday so you have to be happy with that. I think!

The fall at the end of last week was as I predicted on Thursday, if you don’t mind my saying. Nervousness over interim results publication and above all financing.

I would expect this to be the start of a new trading range in anticipation of the good news the CEO promised. We’ll see…

I was thinking that myself.

IF they have alternative funding all but lined up and this is just to get them out of a short term hole, and they won’t draw much of it down in the Ed then it makes a lot more sense.

We don’t have all the facts, that is the long and the short of it. So we can’t make an informed opinion.

The balance of probability, for me, is that they have some good nes coming. The CEO mentioned that in his post, (if it is him) and even if it isn’t him it was mentioned in exactly the same terms in the RNS.

Now I know a lot of AIM CEO’s lie in RNS’s, but that doesn’t seem to be this one’s style. I’ll give him that.

I will say this, it is an extremely risky form of financing. Arguably that is a reassuring thing, if you believe this shows that they know they have some sales coming and the share price is going north.

If the share price declines, (as I read it anyway) Riverfort have the right to demand the issuance of entirely new shares (over and above the initial tranche) to pay back their debt, without limit. This is what they mean by the “death spiral” I guess.

Plus there will be the overhang that constantly needs to be cleared by new buyers.

So there will enormous pressure on the company to keep the share price high. This on a management team which has never sold anything in its entire history and has yet to show the smarts to do so.

All I can say is they must have a lot of confidence that they won’t need to do much drawing down on this facility,and/ or can service it. It didn’t have to be structured this way, and I hope this insouciance ont their part is justified.

How can you guarantee it, you don’t know what the upcoming news flow is? There could be any number of positive events that we know nothing of over the next few days and weeks.

I’m by no means a cheerleading long, but I’m calling that out as complete nonsense.

You have no more idea than the rest of us do. And you can’t guarantee anything.

Star

I don’t know where the stock price is heading next week! I don’t have a crystal ball, no one does, whatever they say..

But of course I can guess. And I personally think that the huge rises envisaged on here are overblown. BUT that there ought to be some positive momentum because we have some funding, at last, the uncertainty has been removed, and we have the prospect of some positive news flow. Orders, alternative sources of funding maybe even.

To me it feels oversold now. And I would expect a rise. But I don’t see the fireworks some on here do. Could be wrong.

As we all know, the market is manic depressive. It goes crazy to the up or downside, and then whipsaws. I am not sure we have anything to make it go mad either way at the moment. It’s wait and see.

BUT, I was encouraged by the CEO’s statement (if it is he), that there is positive news coming. The only thing is, if it is really him, would he say something so market sensitive??

So maybe it isn’t him after all?

I do like this stock. It’s made me good money and it’s fun. ;-)

Roger

You are right, of course, that Riverfort don’t care whether GDR survives or not, they get their money back either way.. And indeed, if the share price languishes, they can drive it into the ground, as they have with other companies.

BUT, and it is a big but, those companies didn’t have any revenue. They were about to die anyway, Riverfort just delivered the coup de grace.

The deal is structured so that Riverfort benefit from any rise in the share price. Which is pretty feasible, let’s face once we start to get orders. So there isn’t any particular incentive for them to short the stock to hedge their investment. So long as there is positive news flow.

It all depends on sales. And paerhaps other sources of revenue. I don’t think the company had much alternative to this form of financing, sadly, in the absence of any income to speak of to date.

What to make of the CEO’s contribution, if genuine? (I believe it is). Obviously he wants approval to the deal, and what alternative do shareholders have? It’s going to be agreed.

My big takeaway from his post is his mention of upcoming positive news flow. He clearly can’t say more as it is price sensitive, but that is hugely encouraging and will improve the SP short term. In fact, arguably, he shouldn’t have said it.

But he did. So what does he mean by that?

Just came back from the theatre to see these two RNS’s.

I haven’t had time to really digest it, or read this board but my initial thoughts are:

1. It’s a dilution by another name, but what choice did they have? It is by no means a fantastic deal, but it could have been a lot worse, by the same token. The funding question has been resolved. The uncertainty is over. That’s dry much a short term positive.

2. The comment on FDA submission delays, and the costs involved is very very disappointing. That removes a huge possible funding stream medium term, and short term driver of the stock.
They seem to lack confidence. That’s a poor reflection on the FDA too

3. It’s game on really. They have the product, and the approval. Now they need to sell. If they do this financing will have saved the company. If they don’t it will be a millstone round it’s neck

Let’s see how the market reacts on Monday. You never know with this company but I’d expect this to be good for the stock short term. We’ll see but I’ll probably get back in. I think there will be plenty of opportunity as it is so deliciously volatile.

You could be right. And actually I hope you ARE right because it won’t go up instantly, you hardly ever catch the exact bottom, and I’d like to be a boat that goes up with the rising tide. Again.

But it still doesn’t really explain the lack of news re Interims. Why didn’t they just announce the delay? It doesn’t make any sense to me.

Whichever way you look at it, they haven’t handled the media narrative well. They have SUCH a good story to tell and the share price continues to languish. This company needs to be run by a hard nosed businessman, not a naive, wet behind the ears, scientist.

Anyone seen an RNS with the Interims, or a request for an extension?

If it is the latter, or even worse, no communication at all, the stock is going to continue to tank on Monday. Testing support levels at 21.2. I know you LTH guys don’t want to hear that, but it’s true.

THE MARKET HATES UNCERTAINTY.

Office

I hate to say it, but some of us saw this coming. Said so and were roundly abused by you for our pains.

You told me yesterday that no one “gives a feck” that I had sold and would buy back in after it had dropped.

But I was right wasn’t I? Or don’t you have the courage and intellectual honesty to admit that?

Who is a better friend of the longs here? Me who suggests people sell to get back in at a lower price?

Or you who encourage them to hold onto a stock which is almost certain to sell off?

Maybe people would be wiser not to “give a feck” what you think?

Maybe this is “nonsense” but I suspect that they got stymied by the timing of the NICE recommendation.

They had to have it to negotiate the best placement terms, but that gave them very very little time before they ran up against the hard deadline for the interims today.

Still if you get paid the big bucks you have to finesse stuff like that. Have everything in place.

It goes to how confident you are in management. In every aspect apart from the scientific bit.

I have to say, listening to the last investor conference call I was less than impressed by their business acumen. Maybe they’ll prove me wrong now that it really matters that they get it right..

I agree. That’s why I argue that it is better to be on the sidelines until the placing is announced.

Where is the potential upside to counter balance the obvious downside?

I never understand why shareholders doggedly hold onto their stock even though there is such downside risk, rather than trading in and out. The extreme swings more than compensate for the bid/offer spread.

At the same time abusing those of us who DO trade as though there was some moral superiority in being a LTH and watching the value of your holding collapse at times like these..

There isn’t. There is no morality in the stock market. It’s amoral if it’s anything.

Absolutely.

How hard can it be? They haven’t had any revenue over the period! (Just kidding, before anyone says anything).

I’m sure it’s under control. It’s not as though they haven’t known about the deadline date for the last six months…