RE: main worry now20 Apr 2023 11:29
A lot of posts have disappeared!
There was one that I wanted to reply to when I had a second. Can’t remember the poster’s name but he was positing the short thesis. That there won’t be sales for months and months (if ever) so the share price will decline and there may even be a death spiral. It was a rude post actually, but the argument is quite legitimate.
I don’t accept the death spiral scenario as in any way likely, there will be a takeover of some kind before then, but I do think there is a lot to the thesis that it it not the time to close your short now, as a further decline looks likely.
If he’s reading this I’d like to congratulate him on a very good short but to say that in his shoes I would be worried about a black swan event. An FDA submission, DEVOTE funding, an exceptional sales order. This would cause the stock to gap up in a big way, missing his stop.
Of course he is probably already well into the blue so could stand it without loss, but it would be leaving a lot on the table.
Personally, in his position, I would cover my short until the end of April now and the possibility of DEVOTE funding is out of the way. You won’t miss much doing that. And it removes the risk entirely.
This stock is in the reverse position of a crazy bull run up. Then you get a steady rise followed by a sharp pullback as longs panic over some news or other. With GDR we have a slow decline punctuated by sharp spikes up as shorts panic and cover for some reason or another.
Unless and until the trend reverses. And that will need the positive news flow Dave Budd promised in his RNS (and perhaps on here)..
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