Member Info for stockpickfree

I’m back in the stock, but wasn’t when it got hit allegedly by the Viceroy shenanigans, so I admit I don’t have any skin in the game.

But even if I had been I know I wouldn’t have blamed them. They don’t matter. Long term, shorts can’t destroy a share price, and indeed if they are wrong in their analysis (or fraudulent) it will only add impetus to moves upwards as they cover. That was the cause of the big spike up this week that I admit I profited from.

Ultimately what matters is the financial soundness of the bank (in this case). You have to accept the wild swings in the short term share price and use them to your advantage. They are good! If you lose money selling at a loss caused by some short activity it’s your fault and if you make a profit by trading well, it is on you too.

Big picture long term, Viceroy are irrelevant to CBG’s stock price and aren’t worth losing sleep over. Short term they increase volatility which is great for traders.

Were they recommending Burford as a buy (with a higher target price) BEFORE the collapse; yes or no?

That was the implication of your header in this thread, and the reason for my comment.

Well the heading of this thread (written by you?) says “Berenberg RETAIN “buy” target.”

My comment wasn’t incorrect, your cited bank had a buy recommendation just before it tanked, right? Or were they advising their clients to sell before the crash?

Since we are pumping other stocks on this board you might like to check out Aker Solutions which trades on the Oslo market.

If Miliband loses his tussle in Cabinet with Reeves over the Jackdaw field and approves it (a big if I admit) they will have huge revenues not currently reflected in the stock price.

It’s a healthy looking chart, but there has been no big move up on the current rumours of approval, now denied..

It is clearly completely insane not to approve both Jackdaw and Rosebank but that doesn’t mean this Government won’t continue its net zero madness I suppose.

Hi Knot, how’s it going?

I got out a long time ago but I always enjoyed your posts and your boundless optimism.

Wondering whether to get back in as all the bad news seems to be out at last, but it is till hard to summon up any short term enthusiasm news flow wise.

What am I missing? What are the grounds for optimism here in a wider market full of risk and chaos. Oodles of capital to invest but it is hard to believe right now.

Seems like most of the old time posters have taken their losses and gone?

What a sick looking chart for anyone who decided to hold on…

So Berenberg Bank (me neither) was telling you to buy just before the stock price fell off a cliff??

Sounds like a good source of stock tips.

Agreed.

I’m in and already nicely in profit.

For me the FCA imbroglio was a blessing, having not taken the risk pre ruling (a decision I would still take again, even though it cost me money this time) I feared a huge gap on Monday, with very little opportunity to trade the stock.

But the increase was actually pretty small considering what the SC ruled. To give you context, American Eagle popped almost as much just because Trump came out in support of Sydney Sweeney! I don’t think the FCA has a clue so I’m glad their incompetence suppressed the rise.

I had a nightmare experience with the FCA’s predecessor when a brokerage I used for CFD trading went bust. Despite it being regulated by them they refused to compensate me because I had (honestly) said that I was aware of the risks of trading in a submission. Of course I was aware that I might lose money from trading, but I wasn’t financially astute enough to know that I’d lose it all through bankruptcy caused by fraud! Jesus.

In the end the administrators refunded me in full when they wound the brokerage up. But that was years later and not thanks to the FSA.

The FCA seems to be equally incompetent.

.

I watched the judgement live at my gym and saw a young hottie looking at it too on her phone. I asked her why and she said she worked for BMW!

Congratulations everyone, there is going to be a huge gap up on Monday and you are going to make a LOT of money. Courage was rewarded.

It isn't a judgement that benefits me much, but I'll try and ride a bit of the wave. Those who held are going to make the big bucks.

Well done!

Morning Liberty

We’ll have to agree to disagree on this. Yes there is FOMO, which is an emotion obviously, but it isn’t as gut wrenchingly visceral as the feeling you get when you are up or down large amounts of serious money after a huge swing, if you haven’t got a stop loss. THAT is the sort of thing which grabs you by the balls and concentrates your mind.

Maybe it is just me, but I have been able to watch CBG’s rise since I first started tracking it with almost complete equanimity. Should I have bought in and made lots of money on the rise? Indubitably. But have I actually lost anything? No. I have my strategy and the realisation that I need to be disciplined and not beat myself up for the opportunity missed. I still have a large trade to make in CBG, I think anyway, and getting that right is what I’m focusing on, not on what might have been had I bought in earlier (and subsequently sold before the ruling). I’ve made many many mistakes before and will do so again, that’s trading.

What I’m really saying I think is that you have to really BELIEVE to have the courage to take out a large trade. You wouldn’t ever do it if you had doubts (which might or might not be wrong, that’s not the point). And I’ve doubted CBG until this SC ruling.

But I expect to go in big when I do go in.

As for over trading I completely agree. In my experience you make money by choosing the right trade and then sitting around letting it run, but cutting your losses early on a losing trade.

Why cap your winners by taking a profit too early? Cap your losers. I expect to hold CBG long term. Although obviously you never really know at this stage. I haven’t even bought it yet!

That’s definitely good advice, but very hard to follow in practice.

As soon as you take a position you are emotionally invested, you simply can’t stop it, although the size of that investment is of crucial importance. Small sums of money are of no great consequence to pretty much everyone. The size of your overall trading capital determines how large a position has to be to seriously affect you emotionally.

But all of us who trade know the feeling when a position is too large for comfort. There’s an old adage “sell down to the sleeping point.”

The only way to be emotionally objective is to be out of the market. You see things then with total clarity. To the extent that you see anything with clarity anyway.

It’s roll on first thing Monday morning really.

The way this has been managed means that those holding will have all the time in the world to examine the judgement with a fine tooth comb. If it is bad there will be the familiar sinking feeling and the hope against hope that one can get out with something (been there, done that). If good the feeling of elation and breathless anticipation of just how much it will gap up. How much money am I going to make?

For those of us on the sidelines it will be much more low key. A calm, sober analysis of when to trade and at what price.

But the real excitement, good or bad, won’t start until the market opens next week.

Either way it is going to be crazy!.

There is no meaningful valuation metric for a company involved in a court case which might lead to existential compensation claims. The price is totally in thrall to that decision, for good or ill. Until it is announced we are totally in the dark.

The point I was making is that the concept that any “downside is factored in” is equally meaningless since we don’t have the first clue what the court will decide. You might just as well say, as I did, that upside has been factored in. Similarly meaningless.

I’m not short, I’m sceptical. If the opportunity presents I’ll get in on the long side, but only AFTER the ruling comes out.

The fact they are announcing this after the market closes on a Friday, with complete secrecy maintained until then causes me to raise an eyebrow. If the decision is going to be good for the share price of all these finance houses and the wider market why go to all this trouble? Just announce it on a Wednesday morning as (seemingly) is the usual practice.

And why is the Treasury briefing the Guardian of its contingency plans for a massive disruption to the UK insurance market?

Also, far from normal practice.

And hardly suggestive of a Government which is expecting the ruling to have no impact on an insurance market vital to the UK economy, or the finance houses which provide it. Have they been tipped the wink?

The share price has gone up from 267 in April to 404 now, on no substantive news whatsover. No one knows anything.

I’d say that there is an upside factored in.

Why do you think “bad is already factored in”?

Who knows?

If you want to trade the volatility I suppose it is of interest, but I can’t summon up any enthusiasm for the moves this week.

None of it matters in the great scheme of things, all that does is the reaction to the ruling released after hours on Friday.

If I were to guess I'd have thought that the price will start to decline from Monday onwards as fear overcomes greed. The fact that there is no prior release of the ruling and that it will place before a weekend suggests to me that the ruling will be bad and there is a fear of a disorderly market. Trading might even be suspended on Monday if the news is really dire. Are people holding the stock not considering the possibility of this?? The complacency (and groupthink) is mind boggling.

But then I found Friday's move up completely bonkers so what do I know?

I take your point about retrospective legislation, Stoopid.

I still see it as the nuclear option however, which sets up a potential conflict between the Executive and Judiciary.

I'm not as sanguine.

This briefing promises short term legal, constitutional and financial armageddon if the SC produces an adverse ruling. Retrospective legislation?? It is going to be chaos. Just wow.

Is this why there is a delay? They have written it, briefed the Treasury and been hit by this leak to the Guardian as a response?

This is really interesting to put it mildy. Jesus, talk about the nuclear option…

Why would Rachel from Accounts be briefing this is she hadn’t got some advance notice of a bad decision?? Are the Treasury given a heads up of a ruling that would have such a devastating impact on the finance sector? It would make sense, of course, but is it within established precedents?

Is it an attempt to influence the Supreme Court?? To say, step back from the precipice, you are contemplating madness, but if you throw us over the edge we have a parachute?

The stock is up so everyone is really excited, I get it. But why is no one wondering about this, and asking the questions which seem obviously to arise from this extraordinary briefing?

I read it as a bad omen with regard to this ruling, although of course if they did DO this retrospective legal change (can they??) it would save CBG.

What am I missing?