Member Info for stockpickfree

Who appointed you moderator of the board, mate?

I’m not particularly interested in the discussion either and haven’t been reading it myself, but I don’t feel it is my right to tell others to shut up. Why do you?.

It’s not as though there is anything much to say on topic anyway as we watch the kettle boil…

Agreed the wider US market has been fantastic, defence stocks in the UK and Europe too.

CBG is a special situation, it provides an opportunity that is not linked to the wider market. But it is harder to trade. Most of the rest of the UK stock market is rather sad to behold. Like much else in the country it feels broken.

Comparing the London market to New York is like putting a clapped out Mini up against a Ferrari. There is so much more choice, so much more liquidity.

(Having said that you have to feel that this huge American bull run is vulnerable to a market correction at any moment).

The spread is ridiculous too. How can you trade an equity with such a huge spread??

When this thing moves it can really rocket, as we just saw. But there is no reason to be in it now, it’s just drifting down on little to no volume. Which has been the story for months, if not years.

From what I can see the big problem is disappointing sales. We may have seen, or be about to see the removal of the dynamic duo, but that issue still remains whoever is running things it seems to me.

Hope I’m wrong.

So it looks like the 23 July rumour was brollocks after all.

Not interested in CBG for the next few days, the only good thing is that we know, with reasonable certitude, that it will get published on a Wednesday, so we don’t have to be on our guard for the other four working days in the week.

But my goodness the waiting is tedious, Jeez.

There’s no demand. If there were the mm’s couldn’t manipulate it down.

We’ve had our little burst of excitement but absent news I don’t see where the catalyst for a turnaround will come from.

Certainly at least until the new guy gets his feet under the table and (hopefully) fires Hildreth…

Like many people I imagine I’ve been keeping an eye on the Supreme Court website. Nothing as yet and I’m off to the gym so may miss it if it’s before lunch.

Was wondering if there will be a spike up on news, and whether to try and trade it, but I’ve decided to stick to my guns and only trade the Judgment itself.

Of course it may not happen today, or even this month, a watched kettle never boils…

Just checking in to see if there is any chance of a ruling tomorrow. It seems not, right?

There was a rumour that it would be 23 July, I don’t know where that came from but it seems to have been brollocks.

I can’t be the only one to to be getting antsy at the waiting. Get it announced already!

I’ve lost a lot of money and made a lot of money over the years, mate. Trading for three decades.

Made more than I’ve lost or I wouldn’t still be in the game. :-)

It’s been a lot of fun, I bought yesterday on the RNS and sold today. I didn’t get the whole bounce and it may well continue tomorrow, but I’m more than happy with a 49.87% increase in 24 hours. Especially with the huge spread.

I’d expect a sell off near term when all the short term traders who have appeared out of the woodwork take their profits but I actually think this might be a trend correction and a good medium to long term hold. Not on the rumoured stellar sales, that is almost certainly BS, but on the actions of the new management

The spread is ridiculous. As you infer it indicates a lack of liquidity, and therefore interest, presently.

We are monitoring the stock, you have to realise that most people aren’t, indeed are blissfully unaware of the company’s existence. Unless and until that changes any new investor whose interest IS piqued, is going to take a more than five per cent hit the moment he (or she) buys.

It’s not very enticing.

Having said that there has to be some news flow once the new CEO takes charge in earnest, which ought to be positive for the stock price. Surely?

Interesting!

I was in a long time ago, but sold for a small but annoying loss because Barder and Hildreth were so obviously inept.

Have to feel that she will get will get the boot too as soon as the new guy gets his feet under the table…

My fear was that the two of them gave away the farm in their deals with the distributors and also that the product doesn’t work very well, hence the poor sales.

But I’m taking a renewed interest in the stock on this news…

I agree and disagree if that isn’t too paradoxical.

I disagree that there isn’t a right strategy, but I agree that there is insufficient data to determine it at this stage. So a distinction without a difference really.

I play poker and there is something called Game Theory Optimal which posits that there is an optimal way to play in every situation, based on the chances of cards appearing to make you a winning hand. They may NOT appear, in fact they often don’t, but that doesn’t mean that you made the wrong decision, even though you lost. In the long term you will win. This is how some people make a lot of money playing poker, and most people lose. There is skill AND luck.

The financial markets are very similar actually. You try and find plays where you will make money in the long term, by making the correct decision based on your analysis of the information available.

CBG is a classic example of that, which is why we are all here. But I can’t decipher these odds, I can’t see how we can realistically assess this legal ruling. It seems prima facie to be a 50/50 coin flip. It’s as clear as mud.

If you can explain to me what I am missing I’m all ears. I’m a gambler (as should be obvious by this post) and am itching to be in now. I’d love to be long, with the prospect of that circa 30% gain you cite. But I don’t like risking my entire stack (or in this case lots of money) on a coin flip.

How can you forecast this legal ruling? Are there lots of cards of the right suit or value to complete an open ended straight or flush draw still in the deck to beat our opponent’s top pair?

If so, how have you determined that the odds are in your favour?

You’ve got to be in it to win it was the catch phrase of the National Lottery I seem to recall. Since your chances of winning that were, are, so infinitesimal, the actual truth is that you have to be in it to lose it.

If you are in profit now, why not lock in your gains prior to the ruling? Then you can’t “lose it” and can always get back in if the ruling is favourable. You’ll make a lot of money long term with very little risk. And of course if the share price tanks you can buy a boat load more at the sunken price with the banked profits.

OK.

Does that mean we will ALWAYS get a warning in good time that the judgement will take place on a succeeding Wednesday?

If so that makes it much easier than sitting around waiting for the judgement to drop out of a clear sky. The more I think about it the more I wonder whether there will be a leak before the announcement. But today’s action is highly unlikely to be a leak IMO.

It is going to be exciting, not going to lie.

Https://supremecourt.uk/news/future-judgment

If I am reading this correctly, judgments are announced for the following Wednesday on Thursday at 11. That is now basically.

So unless I’m missing something we aren’t going to get it until Wednesday week at the earliest??

It’s certainly an interesting potential opportunity.

I’m in a tiny minority here. There aren’t any shorts that I can see, weak hands sold on news of the earlier judgment, so we are left with a mix of longs who held on, and those who bought in after the sell off. Neither of those have any particular incentive to sell before the SC ruling which skews this board very much to the side of optimism.

You are taking a punt, which is fine, good luck to you.

I’m waiting for the verdict, with a view to getting in, in either event. It’s just a matter of taste. I’m not risking anything and I stand to make money too, just not the big bucks if the SC gives the stock price a turbo boost. I’ve made many many risky bets myself in my “investment” life, way riskier than this, just not this time, for some reason.

It’s entirely related to the car finance fiasco, which is subject to a seminal Supreme Court ruling due literally any day.

If the ruling is favourable the share price will rocket, if unfavourable it will tank.

No one knows what the ruling will be (if you say they do they are lying) so it is a total gamble. You pays your money (or not) and takes your chance.

I’m not an efficient market theorist. Far from it, to the extent that I believe in that kind of stuff I incline to the “greater fool theory” more than anything.

As for encouraging people to sell, it’s non of my business what posters do on here, and I don’t care. That may sound harsh, but why should it concern me what some strangers on a message board, whom I will never meet, do with their money? You could say that it might benefit me to see the price fall if I intend to be long at a future point, which I suppose is logical, but first, nothing I say has any impact on the stock price, and second movements between now and the SC ruling are likely to be of minor consequence in the big picture, in my view.

As for the 40% rise, that’s great, good for you. But I wouldn’t rely on a stop loss saving you going into the SC ruling if it is bad news. Because you could get a huge gap down which won’t trigger your stop.

And see that nothing much has happened to the stock price, which is of course to be expected. How you guys can agonise over small, irrelevant moves on a day to day basis now is beyond me! Life is way too short in my book.

It ALL depends on the SC ruling, I know that’s a “statement of the bleeding obvious,” but it’s still true.

There are only two strategies here if you are long (with the exact obverse if you are short). Buy now, or hold, in hope of a huge gap on news of a positive, or not too negative ruling. Or wait on the sidelines to buy the huge gap down on bad or absolutely terrible news. I incline to the latter strategy as the much lower risk option. I also have a gut feeling, if I am honest, that the decision will be bad. Nothing to base it on objectively, but you have to go with your gut. If I’m wrong I’ll miss out on a great trade, which would be shame. But if I got in and were wrong I’d have an immediate loss that would be irrecoverable on the stock. For a long time anyway, and I don’t want the risk of that. Just my view, obviously you all have yours.

So the only thing is to see as we wait, is if there is a leak from the court. It is not supposed to happen, but of course we all know it happens all the time. But I would expect that to take place, if it does, very close to the judgement. Within hours. I don’t think these judges make a ruling and then sit on it. And of course they aren’t stock traders, although they may know some.

But I am not trading any unexplained moves in July, I’m waiting till the ruling itself is announced. Probably getting in, long, on the day itself whatever the result.. Either way there is going to be a ton of volume and if it is positive you can ride a bit of the wave, if a catastrophe trade the dead cat bounce and wait for an entry for a longer term position. It could hit its absolute low on the day itself, or it could take a while for the news to sink in.

Exciting as I say!

Lionel1

AVON