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Physical stop losses are indeed difficult to execute on a share as volatile as this (I use mental ones), but even so I find your logic baffling.

Are you trying to argue that you weren’t well served by a stop loss executing at 85p on a share that is now valued at just over 2?

Exactly.

AIM is a casino. Almost literally. It is a market for speculative traders. If you want an investment to tuck away and forget about, treat yourself to some Eli Lilly shares (the weight loss drug they produce is a phenomenon). Nothing wrong with that (although you should STILL set a stop loss in case of a wider market crash).

Buy and hold is NOT a sensible strategy in AIM (although it is in other markets). If you don’t realise this now having held and averaged down to the capitulation point, you never will, guys, you never will. Yes, let your winners run. The big profits come over longer time periods and that can be months. But always monitor them and if they start losing steam, sell and await events. You’ll always have a chance to get back in.

You have to follow basic trading rules or you will continue to lose your shirt, assuming you haven’t been put off AIM for life, like Roger seems to have been. AIM is full of fraudulent companies, managed by crooks, and decent companies with proper products, like GDR, managed by idiots.

So either don’t enter it at all, or if you think you are up to it (the profits can be spectacular), follow some basic trading rules.

SET A STOP LOSS. That should be your big takeaway here. What caused your situation was the delusion I heard here so often “it’s only a paper loss. It doesn’t really exist under I chrystalise it.”

You have lost the fecking money! You are deluding yourselves. And averaging down in the majority of cases compounds your initial error. You have a losing trade and you’ve added to it. Like a snowball gathering mass.

You should average up, winning trades. It’s counter intuitive, surely it’s better to buy at the bottom? But the bottom is very hard to find. You need confirmation that your trade is a winner.

Average up not down.

EXCEPT for now. This is the capitulation point. We are valued at less than the cash in the bank.

Doesn’t that suggest an overreaction to the downside to you? So now is that rare example of a good time to average down.

None of you are going to listen to me, you know best, I get that. What do I know? But I can’t watch the carnage on here and not tell you how to not get into a financial hole like this again.

Take a small loss, not a big one. And a big profit not a small one. That’s what I am saying.

Doesn’t that make sense logically?

Very good day.

I would have thought that offer shares priced at 1.5 are beginning to look very attractive to LTH’s.

If we keep this up they will get the full raise off, no problem. Shareholders may (justifiably) whine and whinge at inept management, but they know which side their bread is buttered. Most of them anyway. They will be sensible and take up this fantastic opportunity to average down.

Then it will be all eyes on July and full NICE recommendation.

What an interesting day. And it all starts again on Monday.

Have a good weekend everyone.

We’ll have to agree to disagree, Roger.

It’s kinda strange, when you were bullish about the stock I was bearish, and now you have totally given up on it I’m bullish and see it as an opportunity. In fact I found it hard to sleep last night I was so excited about the market opening this morning and was terrified of oversleeping.

Short term I’m long anyway. I’m betting the offer will get off, and there will be a run up to the NICE announcement in July. Long term I’m not so sure to put it mildly, but this is a trader’s share, not an investment.

Good luck to you anyway. We’ve all lost large sums in the markets, it happens to me all the time, and the only answer is to be philosophical and get back on the horse immediately, as you are doing. You win some and you lose some, you can’t let it get you down. It’s only numbers on a computer screen, that’s how I look at it. If you thought of the sums involved, and the risk, you’d never press the button to trade!

If the NICE recommendation is conditional why is the CFO stumping up £25K of his own money to buy shares in the offer?

(I’m not going to talk about Cheek in this regard because as I always say he “talks the talk but never walks the walk”. His £10K investment was laughable).

Well guys, there is a lot of emotion on this board. Anger, pain and remorse.

It’s getting in the way of your seeing things clearly.

Now is the time to buy, guys.

You should have sold long ago. Not averaged down, sold. Some of us said so at the time. Check my posting history..

Now some of you, mind’s clouded with emotion are at risk of compounding the error.

You bought when you should have sold. You must realise that now. At last!

Are you going to sell when you should be buying??

That’s a positive sign.

(A lot less than the £100K that an SCE Director put in, mind you!)

Noteworthy that the CFO, who is in charge of the numbers is putting in the most.

That’s fine, and I completely understand, but your principles will cost you money.

The best way to salvage something from this car crash is to average down.. This offers you a once in a GDR shareholding lifetime opportunity to do that.

Having said that I quite understand the shareholder anger and frustration here.

It is just that being emotional and vengeful against the company is cutting off your nose to spite your face. An emotional trader is a bad trader. It is not as it Cheek gives a feck or it will make any difference.

How are you going to feel when the NICE recommendation lands and the stock sky rockets?

Give yourself some time to cool down before you make such a significant financial decision.

There’s going to be an equity raise at a huge discount!

Who saw that coming??

Oh wait…

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m piling into this. This represents a fantastic opportunity to get shares at a penny plus in a company that is about to get a full recommendation from NICE, and to at the same time, make an FDA submission for sales in the biggest market in the world. They have first in class products, a high barrier to entry, and soon the cash to market and sell them.

What are we looking at here, if managed carefully? A thee or four bagger? Maybe much more?

Agreed.

Expectations are low, at bankruptcy level essentially. We are almost worth less than the cash we have in the bank…

Anything that suggests survival will be soaked up like a parched sponge accepts water. And the sponge will spring into life.

Here’s hoping anyway!

I think you are right. Looks like a disposal to fund the purchase of Open Offer shares.

After all if they had lost confidence and wanted out they could have emulated our friend the Livermore lookalike and dumped the lot.

I’d take this imprecation a tad more seriously if you weren’t constantly going on about RUA!

;-)

Yes Cheek is inept, as was Budd. The skill sets required of research scientists and business executives aren’t particularly analogous, clearly.

This play is all about timing, obviously, as trading always is, but there is even less of a margin for error here than you get with most trades.

LTH’s don’t want to hear this, I realise, but from my perspective the lower the price of the raise the better. A rise to 4 from 2 is just a double, but from 1 it is a four bagger. So I would love a highly distressed raise to trade into. At such low numbers the mathematics is compelling.

But as you say, they look like they are going to tide things over till July with an RF drawdown.

Historically that has tanked the stock price as RF has dumped in huge volumes so it might also be good for lowering the price short term.

As for SCE, I’ve taken a pretty large position, I couldn’t help myself. Well see if it works out…

It’s not going to be an easy trade to finesse, but then why should making money be easy?

Following on from this I see you have a position in SCE after THEIR heavily discounted raise, Dogg.

The investor meeting for that company will be interesting tomorrow!

Are you going to get into GDR if there is a raise? It looks like it will be at a similar price to SCE’s.

And whilst there isn’t the huge order book that SCE is blessed with, GDR has the prospect of a huge approval from NICE in July which will act as a huge stimulus to the stock price, if they can sort out this equity raise at some price or other.

If they get this raise off I’ll be piling in, that’s for sure.

Dogg

The CEO, Cheek has said a couple of times in shareholder briefings that there will be an equity raise, in so many words. The second time pretty recently.

Mind you he has said a lot of stuff, about sales, about FDA submissions which have not met this timescales, or indeed happened at all yet, so his credibility is pretty low. IMO he’s out of his depth.

That’s true.

There’s a lot of (justified) shareholder anger about the performance of the Board and Management team. I hear you.

But surely those that have sold out huge holdings in disgust will no longer have a say in the future running of the business? And those who have bitten the bullet, and averaged down, or will take up the Open Offer will have every incentive to support whoever is running the company going forward?

Assuming you are serious, don’t top up Tiger, please.

Can’t you see that this is going to tank to the massively discounted raise price??

Fools and their money…

The management briefing on Thursday will be key.

We are pretty much priced for bankruptcy and yet have millions in the bank and a strong order book.

If they announce a credible plan to deal with the production issues and a route to profitability this will fly.

Cheek talks the talk. Walking the walk not so much.

They are so close to running out of cash now we must be getting down to the timing of employee’s wages. When in the month of May are they sent into bank accounts?

Cheeky boy isn’t going to want that becoming an issue (just how anxious must the employees be now?) so there has to be a draw down any day if they can’t get the equity raise off. And what price is that going to be at even if they do?

How do these AIM firms end up with such amateurish buffoons managing them??

If you need a raise, organise one. Jeez.

Richard Sneller may have had his position hedged I suppose, but a priori it looks like he didn’t call it right, but make an UTTERLY catastrophic, schoolboy trader, error.

By taking out such a large position in the first place, then selling at the absolute bottom. Even if the company eventually goes bust (a big if) he would have had an opportunity to sell at a higher price than he did, between now and then. He could have sold on Friday for pretty much20% more even, if he had drip fed it. It was an emotional, panicked sale. Perhaps caused by some bust up in the boardroom. A flounce out.

Calling it right? Are you having a laugh?

If you want your investment manager to buy high and sell low, he’s your man!