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During the call the CFO said that the company thought RF no longer had any shares “because of the huge volume of recent trading.”

That doesn’t sound like he knew of it from RF themselves?

We don’t know I guess.

Personally I’d be surprised if RF held any remaining shares.

Interesting week ahead, I’m really looking forward to it! Amazing how much more relaxed you feel sitting on the sidelines rather than having skin in the game (although I have other large positions which are very high risk, high reward and a source of anxiety). Holding shares skews your perspective, you can’t be objective however hard you try.

If there’s a huge spike and I miss it I’m comfortable with that. If the company goes bust or is taken private, that’s fine too. If there’s an equity raise and the price tanks I’ll buy back in.

GDR isn’t an investment it’s a soap opera. And a very entertaining one at that. :-)

The money has gone, you have to let if go and move onto the next trade.

Use it as a learning point. Most of our losses come from individual, bad investments that we can’t emotionally accept were mistakes. So we hold on as they sink and sink, always hoping for them to turn around. We say to ourselves it isn’t lost until I sell.

It IS lost! The way to stop these killer trades stone dead is to ALWAYS set a stop loss. That will vary depending on factors such as volatility and spread, but 10% is a pretty good rule of thumb for blue chip stocks. For AIM they have to be wider as it is such a volatile market.

Physical stops can’t get blown out by huge gaps down, of course, so then you use a mental stop.

Let your winners run. Strangle your losers at birth. Don’t get caught holding the bag hoping for a turnaround. Take you loss and invest somewhere else. Have the discipline to use stop losses.

It’s a clitoris, mate.

Hope you are better at finding one than spelling it! ;-)

Yes.

And they burn through 100K a week, so by the time the market reopens on Tuesday there’ll have spaffed another 30K or so. Doesn’t time fly?

Still you have to think Cheek will want his salary to keep being paid, (what with such a fantastic job he’s doing and all), so one would expect a draw down in the next few days if they can’t get a placing off before it’s game over.

Thanks Dogg.

I had already assumed from the RNS that they hadn’t drawn down on the loan yet. It certainly reads like that.

This seems to confirm it.

They’ve always been very insouciant about costs tbh. A burn rate of 400K every month for years.

No interest in cost control at all. None.

I saw somewhere there were 43 employees! No wonder, with no revenue to speak of yet, they keep running out of cash.

Well, he bought high and sold (very) low.

Those of us who took his shares off his hands are aiming to buy low and sell high.

(Of course he might have hedged his position with a countervailing short as someone else said).

I’d throw some money in if there was an equity raise too. Definitely.

Once (if) they have financial security GDR becomes quite another financial proposition.

Serious money would get in with all the technological prospects here. High net worth individuals and Institutions aren’t going to buy into a company with Mickey Mouse management AND four weeks of money in the bank. I mean, come on!

The company will still have sub optimal management after a raise, but at least their bank account will be full and they will have the time and space to take the products to market..

The clip of the guy in the US showcasing Eroxon has over a million views. Check it out if you don’t believe me. Amplify that for all the markets the product is now launched into, or will be soon.

This will be a social media phenomenon once it is fully launched worldwide. Gotta love algorithms!

They said in the presentation that they could always have another drawdown, but they don’t want to.

That suggests that they aren’t just going to go bust. Especially with the NICE news so close.

My money is still on that they aren’t going under BUT there will have to be either an equity raise, or a delisting. Any drawdown (which will hit the price still further as RF dump) will just be a stopgap between one of those two possibilities in my view.

Agreed.

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a hundred times. Why take the risk of holding the share now?

As far as I can see, they have three options. A share placing, further drawdowns, or taking it private.

In all three scenarios the share tanks from here! Just because it is low, doesn’t mean it can’t go lower.

If you believe in the company long term you can always buy back in. You might miss a spike, but there is a long way up from such a low base and plenty of money to be made long term.

Every day the clock is remorselessly ticking, and they burn more cash with nothing in the bank but dreams and hopes…

River Fort aren’t selling into any buying to depress it, so if there WERE lots of buying pressure the price would rise.

So my counter to your MM manipulation theory would be to say that there isn’t any buying pressure. The lack of a resolution of financing is weighing on the stock. That’s why it is drifting down.

MM’s just want an orderly market. They don’t have it in for GDR and are therefore manipulating the price down nefariously. If there were serious buying interest the MM’s couldn’t keep it down, nor would they want to. They make their money out of volume and are agnostic about the share’s overall direction.

Bandit

I am not saying the management team is top notch, nor that it is appropriate for them to get all these options.

BUT, if your thesis is correct, and they have struck dreadful deals, what good is it to have them at a strike price of 35.5?

I put it to you that they don’t think the share price is likely to stay where it is long term. Maybe they are wrong because they are so incompetent they don’t even realise.

Or maybe the deals aren’t as bad as you assume?

Well it means they have a big financial incentive to take actions that drive the share price higher.

The question is, have they already taken those actions? And we are waiting for events to play out?

Good luck Tiger!

I don’t think you’ll regret selling out here, but we’ll see…

The first of May tomorrow. When does the money run out again? June?

Cutting it fine, but I am sure our magnificent management team have it all under control.

N5

It’s pretty simple. GDR isn’t an investment it’s a trader’s share.

The buy and hold strategy for Genedrive has been a complete and utter disaster, as any number of long term holders on here, significantly under water, can attest, and often do.

The money to be made here (apart from River Fort and management) has been either on the Short side (and they have every financial incentive to trash the share’s reputation on here obviously), or from the relatively frequent, sharp spikes, caused by short covering and speculative longs.

That is what keeps some of us on here. Waiting for opportunities. Which may come after a raise, presently. If there wasn’t any prospect of making money I certainly wouldn’t waste my time on here myself and I doubt others would either.

You do realise that suggesting that only current shareholders have the right to post on here is completely ridiculous, right?

Well, glad I didn’t buy in. GDR never fails to disappoint, does it?

I can’t decide whether or not to get back in now.

The stock is weak, which I kinda like, as it likely means a spike on great news on Friday would be all the greater.

BUT it is only the end of the consultation period. And in the past, as I recall, these have been non events for the stock.

Maybe I’ll miss out on a great spike, I have done before. To me the fact they only a few weeks cash left puts me off. It is SO much safer to get in, if you get in at all, after the terms of the raise are announced. If they even have one.

The other thing is I don’t trust Cheek’s competence at running a business. Talking the talk and not walking the walk at the turn of the year was a big red flag for me. And he’s at it again with these units that were going to come online, last week, which haven’t yet. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

I’m going to sit on my hands. It will probably shoot or the moon on Friday, lol.

I was wondering if they would have to make RF another drawdown myself. Every day is closer to liquidation.

It would stave that off, of course, which is obviously better than the alternative. But we know what that always means for the share price. Millions more dumped at whatever price RF can get. Down down deeper and down as Status Quo used to sing.

I think you could argue that the fact RF haven’t got any more shares to unload at the moment explains the relative stability and quiescence of the share.

They have to do something though. They run out of cash in June right? And we are almost in May now. The fact that it has been left so late hardly strengthens the company hand in negotiations, does it?

Yes, I thought that too. He could very well have said that there were no plans to go private, and you have to ask yourself why he didn’t, if it isn’t under consideration. As you say, very telling.

But even if they don’t do that (or can’t) the fact is that they are in a terrible hole financially , and being listed on AIM, together with the grants they have got here and there haven’t guaranteed them a secure financial footing. It’s been hand to mouth, death spiral financing. And not they have just a few weeks of cash left.

Hard to see why shareholders continue to hold in these circumstances. Stuck between the devil (a delisting followed by being taken private) and the deep blue sea (a humungus dilution at an eye watering discount to the current price) it makes absolutely no objective sense.

At any moment either of these two scenarios could be announced before the market opens. giving you no chance to get out even at current, highly depressed prices.

I don’t understand why anyone is still holding. Even in the least bad scenario you can get back in cheaper after a raise is announced.