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Well, inspired by another poster I popped into my local Boots this lunchtime (I live in a suburban town in the Home Counties) and asked for some Eroxon.

Then I said I didn’t actually want it, but could she tell me what sales are like?

She said they were VERY strong and the stocks had to be constantly replenished. That is one store, of course. Maybe it’s not representative?

But if every poster on this board (who hasn’t done so already) did this over the next day or so, and reported back we might get some positivity on here!

If it’s going gang busters here now, AND there are launches in at least 14 countries in the first half of this year, AND a US launch within twelve months at the latest, it doesn’t take a Warren Buffett to figure out that there is money to be made in this stock with a price at a low by historic standards.

I’m new here, so maybe I have a different view. To me, the past is the past, it’s not relevant now. Only the future matters.

Journalists are always looking for an explanation for sharp rises and falls in the share price.

So they frame a narrative on the presentation using words like “warned” and “uncertainty.”

The reason the stock fell is simply explained; short term traders bought in before earnings in the hope of concrete news of the US launch, there wasn’t any so they sold. Simple as.

Nothing in the presentation suggested a need for warnings or uncertainty. They simply said, very plausibly, that Haleon asked them to keep the timing of the launch under wraps for market competition reasons. and that it was expected some time within the next 12 months. And that it is a complicated process, involving millions of dollars of marketing spend, so Haleon want to take the time to get it right.

The level of competence amongst financial journalism is pitiful, and this article exemplifies this.

Well it’s a question of opportunity cost, I suppose. Until there is news of the US launch it looks like the stock will remain moribund, and there might be better uses for the capital, short term.

I agree, however, with those who say that there might not be much warning of the news when it comes, and that it will likely gap up on the morning of the announcement of the US launch.

So I’m in..

I’m not a “deramper” whatever that means, I just call it as I see it, but I’ll have a stab at your question, Tiger..

A big reason is that River Fort have sold all their holding. This was mentioned by the CFO at the presentation and it sounds plausible. For the last year, every rally has been killed by massive dumping.

LTH’s aren’t selling because they are too deep under water, there don’t seem to be many shorts around, so retail punters who buy (for whatever reason, you’d have to ask them) are pushing the price up a little.

Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s my take.

What I thought was telling during the presentation was the CFO’s response to the (entirely valid) criticism of the disastrous RF deal.

“It has kept us going until now” was his response in essence.

There, out of his own mouth, was an admission of how bad things have been and by extension, continue to be financially.

Brilliant products are worth Jack if you can’t sell them to large scale for a long time, and you don’t have stable funding to keep the lights on till then.

Here’s a reply to your post.

If you have bought in recently you’re an idiot because (assuming they can get it off) there is going to be a discounted placing.

If you haven’t actually bought and have some other nefarious agenda, shame on you.

In either case this share is NOT going to rocket before a placing well south of where we are now.

You either know that very well already or are about to find out.

The share price tanked 20% the moment Cheek opened his mouth and it hasn’t stopped falling since!

Down deeper and down, my friend. Sorry to break it to you.

This will continue to sink until the terms of the discounted raise are announced. GDR management have proven themselves clueless in managing the share price over the years. Completely inept.

Watch it unfold, you’ll have a ringside seat.

(I’m not saying this isn’t a good prospect long term, btw.)

Congratulations to any who got in yesterday. Clearly there was a leak from those in the know which explains the uptick then. But there have been so many false dawns it was easy to not believe in it. I admit I didn’t.

And if you got out at near the peak even better. That was an impressive trade.

We may get another run tomorrow, but for me the time to get in for the medium tern remains after the equity placing. And let’s face it, despite today’s news, they are still behind the 8 ball in negotiations over that.

I was certainly never going to chase the stock today. Plenty of time to get in.

Look on the bright side, that annual revenue will cover a fortnight of the company’s cash burn !

Very “solid”…

Frankly that article was laughable.

That’s a very misleading article, especially the header..

It says that FDA approval is progressing, but as I understand it they have held only preliminary discussions (well over a year ago!) and have yet to even start the FDA approval process proper. Indeed that is why they are seeking a US partner. Something promised by the CEO at the start of the year but which we are yet to see.

I guess that is sarcasm, Gloria, in that my statement falls into the “absolutely bleedin obvious” category. Fair enough.

The thing is there are plenty of buyers here today for River Fort’s bulging bundles of newly minted shares which are going “to da moon.”

So not everyone agrees…

HE1 (which is supposed to be the exemplar) did its equity raise at a 30% discount to the closing price (2.16 I think?). The price fell sharply on the morning after it was announced. That was the low risk time to get in, when it was in the 1’s..

RF have millions more shares to dump and they will do it at whatever price. None of the news is likely to come in the next week of so (what does “advanced discussions” mean??) so I think the way to bet is on a downward slide in anticipation of the heavy discount mentioned above.

So even if Jam’s investment thesis is right (and it might well be) the time to get in is AFTER the funding is announced, not before.

This has happened time and again since the financing deal was signed.

RF dump into every rally and kill it stone dead.

And there are always more shares to dump where those came from because the company has to print millions more month after month to keep the lights on.

Basically these little encouragement carrots they offer newbie retail investors are for RF’s benefit. They allow them to get rid of the millions of shares they have that they want to turn into real money.

It’s a symbiotic relationship to keep the company alive and RF in profit.

And if by some slim chance the company makes it in its current form RF have warrants to cash in so they win either way.

Agreed, Gloria.

I have been witnessing it in real time, obviously, like we all have, but even so was surprised by the extent of the dilution as the share price falls and the numbers that need to be issued to raise the same amount of money go up, inexorably.

There has been no cost cutting during the whole progress too. That has been unforgivable. Every month the same unsustainable burn rate, paying people to do non jobs as they get ever more desperate to get out before the ship sinks.

Stephen11

I’ve been on stock message boards, here and in the US for more than two decades and I’ve seen my share of paid fake posters. Some of them are fairly crude, others incredibly detailed, with complete back stories, and always they encourage retail investors to buy buy buy. On AIM or the pink sheets in the US.

Really they are acting for shorts, or to aid a pump and dump. One thing they never care about is any possible losses. Because there aren’t going to be any for them. They don’t have any skin in the game.

I don’t think GDR is a pump and dump, it is a genuine company, albeit incredibly badly run. But who knows what might be going on in the background here, I’m naturally of a suspicious mindset. And your attempts to blow sunshine up everyone’s backsides by saying how great a time to buy it always is, and your complete lack of concern at your own alleged losses sets off alarm bells for me.

But I don’t know. Other fake posters I became sure of after time, you could be genuine, there’s not enough evidence to say either way.

If you ARE genuine you have been idiotic in averaging down at the prices you claim to have done. That I will say..

That doesn’t sound very believable.

If you had really lost as much money in a position on this stock as you claim to have, with all your endless “averaging downs,” you’d be highly unlikely to say you were “happy.”

I’m starting to wonder if we can believe a word you say, quite frankly.

They have three months money left. No revenue to speak of, endless delays by NICE. The wolves are at the door.

They don’t hold any cards in the putative negotiations, any potential lender can smell the desperation.

The bottom hasn’t been reached I fear. That’s assuming there is a bottom.

The bottom hasn’t been reached, I fear.

Yeah I pretty much agree. I’m out again too.

Not sure about the new guy though. I’d prefer a little less talk and rather more delivery myself. If I had remained a shareholder, it doesn’t matter now, obviously.

It’s an old adage but nevertheless true. “Underpromise and overdeliver.”

Having said that since his zoom call he’s seems to have gone silent now too.

I tell you something else I’d like to have seen. Some focus on costs. They just merrily burn money month after month, at the same rate as though it grew on trees. All without any income of prospect of it. You wouldn’t do that even as a household, you’d cut back on wasteful expenditure. Yet there was not a word on that on his infamous video call.

It was a metaphor, Rog. ;-)

You are absolutely right in your main point though. Access to the US market has always been key. To use another metaphor, the UK healthcare market is a mouse in comparison to the American elephant.