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I forgot to add just now that RF is dumping which is obviously depressing the share price absent news.

But would you want to be short right now, with this FDA announcement due any day? There will be a huge gap up when it lands.

You would expect the negotiations with regards to FDA partnership to be complicated and time consuming. They will take what time they will take and waiting for them every day is like watching a kettle boil.

But the US market is so huge that such a partnership would/will be transformative for the company and its share price.

It will be worth the wait.

I bought some more this morning too.

I won’t state the number of shares I now own but I’ve got an uncomfortably large position if there is a placing well below the current price, before positive news, let’s put it like that.

My gut says the risk reward is acceptable, but it’s been wrong before, sigh.

You’ve got to be in it to win it and all that…

Well I’m back in after a long break from this board.

It was hard to pull the trigger because this stock requires you either to have big balls or to be unaware of the risks!

I’ve got a pretty big position again. Hope I don’t live to regret it…

It just seems to me that we could be on the brink of news which could lead to a significant breakout. This stock can really fly when it has a mind to, as many on here know.

And I therefore can’t be on the sidelines despite the (still extant!) funding issue and RF dumping stock like there’s no tomorrow.

It’s only money.

Fair enough.

You’re being gutsy to be fair and deserve to get rewarded.

Personally I’m waiting for a better entry point. We are talking serious multiples from (say) 3-4. It could be one of the trades of the year.

I think that RF will start dumping their millions of shares from tomorrow, and the market isn’t liquid enough to take the volume.

I am also not sure you are right that there won’t need to be a refinancing in addition to any FDA submission. They spend money like water and they’ve only got a million in the bank!!

Still holding Harrizma?

What’s your strategy?

Surely they need TWO sources of funding?

They need to keep the lights on first. They are spending 400K a month on that and only have a million plus some change, liquid in the bank. It’s a lack of liquidity that causes bankruptcy, whatever the tax credits, DEVOTE funding they might be getting in the future ya de ya.

Then there is the multi million cost of an FDA application, which will need a funding partner too.

I’ve had time to listen to the call again and give it some thought away from the noise of the market during trading hours.

Big picture: I’m definitely getting back in, the only question is when.

Short term (over the next few days) I foresee selling pressure from the RF drawdown/dilution. They have always dumped immediately, whatever the price, in the past, so there is no reason to think that won’t happen again.

Medium term (the next few weeks) I suspect there will be pressure downwards because the shorts won’t cover with a huge equity raise is on the horizon. River Fort themselves might be shorting us.

But there is also the expected news flow of the FDA partnership deal, if that comes off, and perhaps some sales. Plus longer term the NICE decision announcement.

So there is definitely upside here, and a possible short covering rally of significant proportions, but no particular hurry to get in. We could sink a long way, short term from here, depending on the equity dilution/raise.

It’s a question of watching this stock like a hawk and looking for opportunities to get in. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see the bottom here.

They have only a few months of cash left before the become insolvent. I suspect a deal to bring them some financial security is doable, but you have to ask, how strong will their negotiating position be in those discussions?

Not very strong against hard nosed financiers, I would suggest.

I’ve got plenty of liquid capital to invest, and plan to go big here. But although I don’t necessarily expect to hit the exact bottom I am cautious of the huge near time downside risk caused by the company’s precarious financial position..

So there’s no rush. Let’s see what the next few trading days hold.

We’ve lost 25% in market value over the past five days. That’s quite some going, even for GDR.

I wondered if there might be a rise up in expectation of (claimed to be) good news over the next few weeks and thought there might be, but now I’m not so sure.

The problem is that the company keeps creating a new generation of bag holders, all desperate to get out of the hole they are in. There are the long term ones who are too far gone to ever get out and might well hold onto bankruptcy, and this latest round sucked in by the low price and possible good news upcoming. Some will have bitten the bullet yesterday and today, but some will be holding, and they are a drag on the stock because any upward movement and they will be out. If you’ve got a large position these kind of percentage falls are incredibly punishing.

Then there are the shorts who have made a killing. Have they any reason to cover? Plus of course the millions of newly printed shares that will be dumped onto the market by River Fort from Tuesday onward.

All to fund less than one month’s operating costs! Then it will be rinse and repeat. More shares printed to get through another month. All dumped onto the market squashing any rally…

There may be a few sales (how much??) , but that isn’t going to cut it I’m afraid. We need proper, long term financing, not this month to month stuff.

It’s very sad and a terrible indictment on the management of this company.

Expert

I agree, it’s pretty sad to be pleased if someone loses money. I was just querying Bankrupt’s statements which didn’t seem consistent.

Good luck to you too. I think you look to have bought at a good time, when the panic was at its height, and might make some money out of a run up in December and January on the back of the CEO’s warm words.

Bankrupt.

Didn’t you say you were going to sell at the opening bell?

How can you sell and hold at the same time?

Yeah, I have no confidence in Cheek whatsoever. He is clueless. More fool me for thinking he might. the triumph of hope over experience.

The reference to an FDA pre submission was completely pathetic and a sad demonstration of his having no strategic vision and absolutely nothing to say. The whole world knows GDR can’t afford an FDA submission. How stupid does he think we all are??

Someone needs to come along with deep pockets to put GDR out of its misery and the grip of River Fort. To then fund the testing necessary for NICE and the FDA.

Unfortunately that won’t help current shareholders much.

If not, then bankruptcy beckons I’m afraid.

Stephen11

Here’s the answer to your question.

They made a loss of 5.2m last year. An increase of half a million.

They have 2.6m cash in hand, (they spaffed 2m over the year on wine and dancing girls).

They borrowed 2.9m from RF this year to pay for the wine and dancing girls.

The current monthly spend is not mentioned (so far as I know?) but has been historically 400K.

Maybe it has been reduced, I’ve not listened to the conference call.

There is a tax credit which will apparently extend the runway to the end of Q1.

They have a grant of 1.2m from DEVOTE.

300K has been raised for a dilution of 3.3m new shares which are going to be dumped on the market from 5 December.

Further dilution(s) will be required to keep the lights on.

There are no sales nor hope of them.

Happy now?

I knew it was likely to do this but I bought in anyway! My bad…

Only a small position so it doesn’t matter in the great scheme of things. I think this might have cured me of the GDR bug now, though. This huge sell off is only the beginning.

This company is a total crock…

Yeah I hope so too. Maybe, they know something? Too late now.

I bought in earlier, almost against my better judgement, I couldn’t help myself, basically.

If the new guy has anything about him he will have some plans to announce, (I mean what has he been doing since he took over??) and I’m hoping for a short term bounce.

The worry is a refinancing on terrible terms. It’s one of those trades where you could lose 50% (or more!) of your stake with no chance to get out as it gaps down hugely. But if you aren’t in and it gaps up you miss most of the upside.

We’ll see.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

And I’ll answer the question once again that you have asked many times. Why I kept tabs on a company which I currently have no position in (although I’ve held one many times in the past).

BECAUSE I’M ALWAYS INTERESTED IN A SHORT TERM TRADE.

Why you are unable to understand this is beyond me. Not everyone is interested in buying a stock at a high price and then holding it under water for months/ years.

What part of that can’t you grasp?

Stephen1

Why don’t we both wait for the results to see EXACTLY how healthy the finances are? Only a couple of days to go now…

As for my recent advice to sell which you seem unhappy with, well we are down 8% since I suggested it, so it’s not looking bad advice so far.

But that’s small beer. Why didn’t you take my advice when I suggested you cut your losses, in the 20’s? When the price was more than three times what it is now?

Serious question. You accuse me of not answering yours, why don’t you answer mine?

If you bought in last week and have a profit you might want to consider banking it now before the results announcement. Why is the price stalling if there is good news on the horizon? Won’t it have leaked? Impossible to keep it secret so there isn’t any.

If there is a big cash raise you are going to join the many bag holders on here. Heavily underwater. Praying for a miracle. Just like all the others.

What good news could there possibly be? We know there are no sales or hope of sales and the company is running out of cash and is in the grip of death spiral financiers…

They’ll have to price a dilution at least 40 - 50 % south of here to get it off.

But you can still trade it at a MUCH higher price now, (maybe for a profit even) before what may well be catastrophic news.

This is your chance to get out, but the clock is ticking…

Exactly, there aren’t any sales and won’t be any for the foreseeable, the issue is funding.

It seems clear that Budd was fired because of the RF deal. Rightly so in my view. The question is, can the new CEO do any better, or is he bound by terrible terms agreed to by his predecessor?