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Stars

Yeah and the same the same once in a lifetime opportunity existed for GDR during the pandemic too with their Covid testing kit, which they seized with both hands!

Oh wait…

I get it, this is how they roll. The FDA is the same or even worse. It doesn’t make it right or sensible though.

I’ve got no financial interest in this company any more, but even so I find the (arguably) undue caution of NICE baffling.

All the UK regulatory authorities stood aside whilst a vaccine (the Oxford Astra Zeneca) was administered to millions of people even though it was even known at the time that there was a (admittedly low) risk of blood clots. Several countries around the world refused to administer it, and now it is banned from use in the UK too.

And yet they spend three years collecting data on the risk of antibiotic resistance, and efficacy on different ethnicities before fully recommending a procedure they acknowledge is safe and life changing?

It’s an absurd contradistinction.

I wish I could count the number of traders who have come on here convinced they alone have found the bottom and the only way is up.

You are aware thar RF have been printed millions more shares, right?. And that without news there won’t be enough buyers to absorb their remorseless dumping?

If you aren’t aware yet you soon will be.

This message board really is a waste of time nowadays…

Thanks GTX and Blue for your replies.

Just so I understand, this threat from Argentina to appeal is a bluff, you say, because they would have to post billions to do so.

What evidence do you have for that? I’m struggling to understand why Argentina’s lawyers would say this if it were the case? It doesn’t seem to make any sense.

I read that the judge has given no indication of a timescale for her judgement.

Can anyone with knowledge of the US legal system (which to my layman’s eye seems incredibly slow moving and sclerotic, compared to its English equivalent) hazard a guess as to the upper and lower limits of the possible timeframes here?

(I’m taking about this judgement, not the subsequent appeal which we are promised, although an estimate for that would be useful too I guess).

I suppose to be fair to the judge it is complicated and requires analysis and great thought. Particularly since she knows for pretty much certain there will be an appeal poring over everything she says, however she finds.

Stars

I thought there was a NICE meeting on the stroke product in December? That has been delayed from September or something?

I am sure you are on top of this, so if you could outline the latest status I’d be interested.

But I admit I’m finding it hard to maintain my enthusiasm despite these periodic little flurries.

What’s the definition of madness? Doing the same thing again and again and hoping for a different outcome…

I’d love this to be a trend reversal and the beginning of a climb back up for the stock in anticipation of NICE recommendation towards the end of the year.

But I’m waiting for RF to kill the rally by massive dumping as they do time after time after time.

Hope I’m wrong.

There is effectively no bottom without news.

River Fort have demonstrated that they are quite happy to drive it into the ground.

I’d try and catch it on the way back up rather than trying to pick the bottom. How likely is it that you will do that? You miss some of the upward movement but you don’t get caught holding a falling knife.

Without sales the company has no intrinsic value. It is all based on the froth of hope and expectation, and without news there is none of that.

I know.

To be fair I was responding to a post, long ago, where Stars said that he had gone all in with BUR.

BUR has done OK since then, but nothing startling so far. GDR can make a gain like it has, over many weeks, in a few minutes. When it’s in the mood.

They are two totally different stock propositions.

And aren’t we all interested in talking about stock propositions at the end of the day?

Well if that is the case I won’t be in the stock!

(Off topic, but BUR has been doing well recently I notice. I guess a decision on the quantum arising from the court case is due soon…)

Thanks Sprout.

Apologies for the late reply, I’m monitoring this message board less and less as nothing seems to be happening, but the share price is on my daily watch list.

The share price is the clue to what’s going on. Not what is said on here.

From our point of view, as bystanders, the lower the price goes in this drift down the better of course. I know this irritates LTH’s but we are all grown ups and have to look after our money, and their losses are their responsibility not ours. They don’t care when we have a bad trade!

I am convinced there will be a run up some time this year on expectation of the NICE stroke recommendation. So the longer this lasts the lower our entry price, and the more shares we can buy. If we get into single digits we are starting to talk about some serious compounding on any significant run up.

I don’t expect to get the exact bottom. But I’ll be staggered not to get an even better entry price than now. Isn’t it better to be out, pleased that it is going down rather than seeing your “investment” slowly erode day after day after day?

The stock market is meant to be fun, not a cause of misery. And it is meant to make you money, not lose it.

You were wise to sell out Sprout.

And I bet you feel better for it. Like a weight has been lifted from your shoulders.

I always find a losing position deeply depressing. Utterly soul destroying. I am sure we all do. But once I am out and I’ve taken the hit, it is done and dusted. Time to move onto the next trade.

What really tears your insides out is staying in and watching a position collapse, all the time hoping there will be a reversal. You tell you yourself it’s not a loss till you sell. Its all on paper. Not real.

But it IS real. You have lost that money. Far better to accept it and move on.

There’s a whole host of people on this board who should have set a stop loss. And then who have compounded that mistake by not selling out as their positions got worse and worse.

At least you have finally realised what needed to be done Sprout. I applaud you for it.

And when you get back in at a much lower price (which perhaps you will) you will REALLY feel good about yourself! Especially as the price then goes back up again, past the point you just sold for. With you having twice as many shares (or however many it is) than you would have done if you had carried on holding.

The longs are right in fundamental terms. There will be another run up here. I’m sure of it. Their problem has been holding all the way down. And they know it which makes it all the worse.

It’s not rocket science. Always have a stop loss. ESPECIALLY when you are trading a high risk high return AIM stock like this.

It’s just too risky not to. As so many on here have now learnt to their cost.

I agree with everything said about the management of the company. That’s really the issue, not a lack of communication. If things were going well they could be communicated, the problem is that they aren’t, so they can’t be.

But I do think everyone is being unnecessarily pessimistic. We aren’t at the end game here, IMO, and the share does have a propensity to rocket, if and when the dead hand of RF is lifted by the liquidity to burn through their dumping.

We haven’t had a really good rally since the refinancing. That isn’t a coincidence. There isn’t enough share volume to deal with the RF shares being unloaded onto the market.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I think the next stage of the NICE approval process for the stroke product will provide that volume and we will get a strong rally later in the year. Perhaps lift off.

Obviously timing that is a challenge, but if we could predict the stock market in advance we’d all be millionaires.

My own strategy is to be out as we drift down, ready to jump back in at any moment.

Stephen1

Are you still in Kodal?

I see that Leo Lithium’s shares have been suspended because of some action by the Mali government. Didn’t they buy their field from Kodal??

(Apologies for this being off topic but GDR is so boring at the moment!)

Roger

As I understand it they don’t HAVE to give further monthly drawdowns if the price has broken 16, which of course it has.

They can do it if they agree.

I know no more about the business practices and ethics of death spiral financiers than the next man, but I’d have thought that gives them a lot of negotiating power with the company with regards to new share issues and price. If the contract has been broken its been broken.

It depends how they want to play it. The company in its desperation has left them holding all the cards.

It says here that in the main “funding will go directly to the UoM and it’s NHS partners.”

So how much will Genedrive even get from this??

Leaving aside the fact that its participation in the project is already known and therefore priced in, and that when this was announced massive dumping by RF strangled the rally at birth.

A few days, a few weeks for the details to be announced, it won’t make any substantive difference to the share price anyway.

Traders, a few of whom arrived recently, (where have they gone, sold out already?) aren’t going to wait until December.

The only action will be RF dumping.. And the share price will therefore go down down deeper and down.

The DEVOTE announcement is a short term wildcard, I expect it to be a damp squib as I say, but we’ll see. After that the trading strategy HAS to be to sell and come back later. Almost certainly at a lower price, perhaps much lower, and with your money not being dead to you for months.

It’s all about River Fort.

They need to get their money back, first and foremost, although they’d like to get some juicy profits from the sale of warrants and indeed from the share price going up significantly after they have been issued a ton at a rock bottom price.

Every month (assuming they agree) they have to unload a new tranche. And the market isn’t there for that. If there were buyers, if there was liquidity caused by “positive news” it would be OK, but there isn’t any at the moment.

It’s completely possible that the price could go into single digits over the next few months, absent the much awaited “positive news” we were promised. Because of the remorseless dumping into a market with few, if any buyers.

And I don’t think RF would care. All that matters to them is to get their money back. That means unloading all the shares they are issued every month at whatever price they can get.

And that’s the best scenario. The worse is that they say the agreement is busted and they won’t pony up any more money.

It might get to 100p or higher, who knows.

But at the moment it is below the amount which it has to be for RF to guarantee funding a further drawdown. They could agree to it, obviously, indeed they probably will, or have already in exchange for God knows how many gazillion shares at this low price.

Do we know if it has happened? Will we be told afterwards or are we expected to guess by the share price?

Why on earth do you think this is the bottom?

And what news update are you expecting exactly? Please don’t tell me you think they have actually managed to sell any of their products…