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Big Al

I absolutely agree that River Fort will benefit from the company doing well medium to long term and the share price taking off. That is the point of the warrants. And indeed from their shareholding itself which will be in profit above 32 pence a share.

All I am saying is that they get their money back if the company fails. And the process they have in place to do that will accelerate that failure, if it were to take place, and indeed will be a causal factor.

Retail longs are betting on the company. They will lose big if it fails. River Fort will share in the success in a significant way if it succeeds, making the big busks, with zero risk it if it fails. They get all their money back. It’s a complete free hit.

Nice work if you can get it.

Star

Why would River Fort agree to a clause prohibiting shorting? They had the money to give, GDR were the party about to run out of cash, so they had the whip hand in the negotiations. It is normal business practice for Death Spiral financiers to short, in fact is is the business model, if it was even discussed River Fort will likely have told them to find another DSF who would agree not to. And said good luck with that. .

But you have to wonder how across the detail Budd was. How much he even understood? Lawyers are only as good as the client instructing them. River Fort are pros, it is their business. Budd is just a scientist trying (and failing) to run a start up company with its myriad complexities. Who do you think was the tougher and smarter in the contract negotiations?

The bottom line is that Budd should never have allowed the company into a position where River Fort got within a mile of it. THAT is the point.

How do River Fort lose?

I don’t follow your logic? I mean they are probably shorting the stock too, right? So benefiting from this fall and hedging their long position. Plus they will get the new diluted shares if needs be. It looks like it will need to be.

Are you still in, Lloyd? Have you cut your losses to live to fight another day?

What do we think?

A trend reversal or a false breakout?

21 seems to be holding as support.

The problem the company, and especially Dave Budd has, is that they/he hyped up the Covid test to an absurd degree and then couldn’t deliver any sales. I wasn’t here at the time but it’s obvious from the share chart. A completely undeserved overheating of the SP followed by a collapse when reality kicked in.

This sucked a lot of “investors” in, and the (in my view foolish) ones who didn’t sell when it turned downwards got left holding the bag and are all over this board. Everything is seen through the prism of their hope of averaging down and getting their money back. They can’t be objective.

That’s why there is such impatience. Suddenly there is hope of it all coming good and their being proved right all along. But why is it taking so much time?

So they blame the company, and especially Budd. Rather than accepting ownership for their own decision to hold on rather than sell at a higher price. It is their money after all and their responsibility . No-one else cares about it. Why should they care indeed?

Which isn’t to say that Budd isn’t blameless. He was clearly utterly incompetent back then and let a golden opportunity pass through the company’s fingers. A once in a lifetime opportunity to boot. This was fatally compounded by the fact that he had hyped it up, whipping the market into a frenzy. He over promised then utterly failed to deliver.

So now, no-one trusts him. I am not heavily underwater, I’ve made good money on this stock so far and expect to make more. And even I don’t trust him. Any period of price stagnation or falls and the doubts resurface. Is it going to happen again?

But objectively it shouldn’t. The company’s contemporary products are not comparable to the failed covid test. These things still take a long time at this stage to come to fruition. Patience WILL eventually be rewarded IMO.

But the delay is hard to take so the LTH’s ***** about the time everything is taken. Driven by an insecurity and fear that Budd will screw this opportunity up as well. And they will never get their money back.

Gotta admit I LOVE Charles Dickens. Love him.

So many characters to choose from to enlighten us about Genedrive…

I think the big fear is that David Budd is a modern day Montague Tigg from Martin Chuzzlwitt. That or Daniel Quilp just because he’s the best villain in the whole of Dickens. Who doesn’t love a table jumping dwarf?

As for this chat board I have the perfect character to describe some on here. Also from Curiosity Shop.

We have a few Dick Swivellers!

That’s true.

I guess the question is, how far will it fall? And what is the timescale for any positive news?

I’m not a specialist chartist but even I can see that the next support level is 21. Break that and it’s look out below. So that’s the SP picture. Without news there is really no reason to buy as you can get in at a lower price later. So we’ll continue to drift down, occasionally spiking upwards, but the trend will continue unless and until it is reversed by news or anticipatory buying of news.

There seems little likelihood of an announcement of anything other than minimal sales short term, and we aren’t going to get anything regarding the stroke treatment for months as I understand it? We can’t afford to start an FDA submission without additional funding, or a further drawdown from River Fort. So that’s out.

As far as I can see the only short term hope is DEVOTE funding. Which I’m still not convinced is the lost cause that most on here believe. Is Budd really THAT incompetent? It seems a perfect fir for GDR. He must know how to tailor the application, dig out a promising technology in early development, promise some cheap new hires, ya de ya, to meet the criteria??

Maybe I’m clutching at straws.

It really does.

There HAS to be a positive news flow.

Otherwise RF dumps its shares into the market with too few buyers , depressing the price because they will sell for what they get. They don’t care.

Then they get a new issue shares to pay back their unfulfilled debt because the price is lower. That further dilutes the shareholding, therefore devaluing the SP. Then they dump more into the lower price every month as the price declines. It feeds on itself.

The share price goes swirling round and round the plug hole like an emptying sink of water until it disappears.

It’s incredibly risky and we need a positive news flow to prevent it. They don’t call it death spiral financing for nothing.

I didn’t say the FDA submission cost would be for fees!

I hope you are right Star that they would do another placing, but why arrange this particular one if you don’t draw it down if you need it?

It doesn’t make sense. But then a lot of what this company does doesn’t make sense.

If we don’t get any DEVOTE funding, which seems to be the majority view here, then I think an additional drawdown from RF is a given.

They will need a material sum to make an FDA submission, and given how slow and unwieldy the NHS bureaucracy is, and the fact that this company has never proven itself capable of selling anything thus far in its entire history, I can’t see them as being able to cover all their costs medium term without an additional tranche.

And I say this through gritted teeth as a long term believer in this company.

Why do we think the DEVOTE funding is so unlikely? What do you guys base this on? Haven’t they got technology in the pipeline that they could use to justify a grant? I can’t see what else this sort of funding is for if it isn’t to help companies like this, on the cusp of self sufficiency through organic sales, but not there yet and in therefore in the grasp of seedy death spiral financiers?

Someone on here said it is a slam dunk. What did he base that on?

Stephen11

Best of luck to you too.

(I still think this stock will make both of us even more money, btw. The short term angst is ridiculously overblown IMO).

Stephen11

I’ve been trading for over thirty years too, using derivatives in my prime (not any more) and I’ve used all kinds of different strategies. Many of which didn’t use stop losses.

So all I can say is that if you have been doing the same, trading six figure positions without a stop and have never suffered a huge loss on any position, then you have been very lucky indeed.

I’ll say no more than that.

Stephen11

If you have made money buying and holding that’s fine, all I am saying is, it isn’t the optimal strategy. I play a lot of poker and they have a concept called “Game Theory Optimal” which describes the absolutely best way, mathematically, of playing every hand in every position round the table. It doesn’t always win, because in poker (like the stock market) there is a lot of chance. “Variance” is the poker term. But winning shouldn’t be the aim in poker (or the stock market), because you get periods when nothing goes your way, it is about making the best decision in every single situation you face. Because then, in the long term, you will win.

Your strategy (essentially trying to find ten baggers (like the rest of us) and holding come what may, is incredibly vulnerable to huge losses. (As all the bag holders on here testify). And then you have the opportunity cost of the dead money in your paper loss (and that’s assuming it ever recovers, if it doesn’t it’s a catastrophe).

How can it be GTO to have a stock in your portfolio that you bought at 100x, now valued at 30x for months at a time? With you unable to take advantage of other opportunities that arises?

I put it to you that it isn’t.

And that isn’t to talk about the emotional strain it puts on you btw. You only stress about a position that is under water but still in loss. Once it’s closed, and you take the loss, you move on. And can view the next entry point objectively, not through the prism of the pain of your loss.

Quite.

There’s a lot of unctuous moralising on here about how “investors” are morally superior to traders.

This isn’t an investment. Investments have revenue and they don’t trade for pennies.

It’s no different from putting your money on some hyped up horse on the 2.30 at Uttoxeter.

Buy and hold while it loses value if you want, but don’t kid yourself that you’re doing anything other than becoming a bag carrier. And that in every empirical respect you’d be better admitting you were wrong (surprisingly hard to do in the stock market for some reason), cutting your losses and selling.

To buy back in lower if you still believe.

It’s a worrying sign when a board becomes the sole preserve of fervid longs IMO.

Suggesting that posters be filtered isn’t AS bad, there is a lot of junk on here and there is only so many minutes in the day, so I get that.

But I’ve been on boards where nay sayers are driven off. Either through complaints to admin, or posting pressure.

Then the board becomes an echo chamber of longs reinforcing their view. And negative things that need to be said are not. It’s just pump pump pump.

If you are confident that your “investment” thesis is sound what is there to fear in it being critiqued? Let there be robust debate, surely and may the best case, intellectually win.

More the ability of posters to influence the actual share price is way overstated. What is happening now is a text book example. Most of the posters on here are longs yet the SP stagnates.

It will go up in its own sweet time (if it does) irregardless of messages posted on here. We are just passing the time in my opinion. By and large we don’t shape the price itself.

So I wouldn’t fear a cabal of wicked shorts conspiring to talk the price down.

It goes to the lamentably sub optimal way the NHS is organised, something the medical professionals we sometimes see on here would know a lot more about than me.

For better (or I would argue) worse, we have an absolutely immense, politically driven bureaucracy, the biggest employer in Western Europe, with a top down, centrally driven organisational structure. Setting targets, doling out the money, determining strategy..

YET when it comes to actually implementing something that saves lives (or the quality of them) and saves money, we are left with a morass of decentralised Trusts free to do whatever they like, for their own interests, in their own sweet way. Irregardless of the nations’s babies and their parents.

Is there any way of influencing the bridge of this supertanker, to suggest that they might alter course by one degree and make this world class treatment available across the whole NHS, now??

Stupid question. Of course not.

It was a good trade actually, Massive, and I don’t understand the sour grapes on here.

What do you use to give you the news alert? With something like that it is fastest finger first.

What happened to MassiveRay?

There are far better companies to short. You risk a huge spike up from unforeseen news (eg an FDA submission) which will take out your stop.

Just saying as a fellow trader…

It’s not market maker manipulation.

They can’t distort the price long term. And indeed why would they? They just want to ensure liquidity, short or long. If there is a preponderance of buyers the price will go up whatever the MM’s do.

There isn’t a preponderance of buyers. That’s the problem, not the market makers.