Member Info for stockpickfree

Don't know if you are around still, or have sold/ been stopped out by now. But if you got into HLF while waiting for Car you did well. Up over 7% today...

Hi Hottentot Both my spread bet brokers CMC and IG Index have reasonably full chart packages but I hardly ever use them! I prefer the simplicity of Google Finance. I know that marks me out as a technical analysis amateur. :-) If you are into 200 day moving averages and Bollinger Bands and Stochastics and all that you are welcome to it, but I like finding simple stuff like points of resistance and support and pivot points which a basic chart tells me as much as a bells and whistles one. Sorry!

Well I am staying long Carclo even though there may be be further short term turbulence. It won't be long before everyone bearish of this company has sold already. Obviously further bad news will delay this final capitulation of the longs but as you say other parts of the company are in good shape and the balance sheet is very strong. I am going to short Atmel before earnings though at an opportune moment. As a hedge, but also because its continued strength makes no sense to me. It may be a larger company by a huge factor but it isn't a high growth one except in expectation of Xsense...

Very very interesting. If you are right both Carclo and Atmel are short plays until this news gets out. You have to feel that a lot is now factored in to CAR but it makes ATML a SCREAMING short! If you are right... :-)

Don't think so. Not today anyway. And Monday is another week. Time for the cat to bounce at last? :-) If you have a strong stomach check out HLF in New York. A very volatile stock, heavily shorted which has been hammered the last couple of days. When it breaks out to the upside it tends to do so very aggressively as the shorts cover...

Check out Fresnillo! Did you get in?

The huge selling isn't done, that is for sure. I think the price has been pretty resilient actually, but we won't get our move up until everyone who is due to dump, has done so. I don't think we will break 160, but if we do they may not be able to hold it and look out below I guess... Still long though. :-)

Well said. Anyone who tells a trader to invest in a fund hasn't got a clue. Sorry Cueball, but you lost all credibility instantly you made that post. Talk about going from hero to zero. :-) Watch and learn. You heard it here first, before it happens. A stock that craters 31.44% in a day will have a dead cat bounce the next day. It has to happen. It will happen. Instead of shooting your mouth off watch, and get in yourself next time. And thank us for giving you a lesson for free.

I don't know I am afraid, but we have already traded six times the average daily volume with a last few busy minutes of trading still to go.

I haven't traded Atmel as it goes, but yes I do think it is a solid short. Its stock price hasn't reacted as Carclo's has, even though XSense is the real growth area for that company too. Of course it is much much bigger company, but when the Yanks wake up to this Atmel will take a hit too, IMO. Nothing like this carnage, but a hit. Could be worth taking out a short in early Feb, we'll see...

Not just words, I am putting my money where my mouth is! We'll see, if I am wrong, I am wrong. Won't be the first time. But this looks a great short term trade to me, I have to say...

Couldn't disagree more! Days like this are a trader's dream, what we live for. ALL the bad news is now out, everyone who agrees with you will have sold today in a panic, like the lemmings they are. This is a massive overreaction on the downside, there will be a reappraisal of fundamentals over the near term. Was I wrong being long before? Absolutely! But when you end up with a lemon you have to make lemonade, and make the most of the opportunities the market gives you. Atmel will be a solid short today, Carclo a fantastic short term trade on the long side. First rule of trading. Buy when everyone else is selling, sell when everyone else is buying. We are up at least 10% from the closing price today, over the next few days, easy money if you are not greedy and time it right, the key is not buying too far from today's bottom. Long term who knows? But in the long term we are all dead.

Hottentot. While you wait, check out Fresnillo. It is a silver miner which has had some problems in South America leading to a big sell off at the end of last year. Above all it is linked to the silver price which absolutely tanked last year. As it goes I trade silver off and on, and am back in on the long side as it looks bullish short term technically, and long term on fundamental grounds. Huge money printing, any problems in the Eurozone, it all points to gold coming back into favour this year. And silver exaggerates the gold price, it goes up more when it is up and down more when it falls. Do your own due diligence, and don't blame me if it doesn't work out. But I like Fres at these prices I have to say...

Hi Hottentot. Been away from this board for a while, just intermittently checking the share price now and then. Reading through old posts I see that you name checked me. There isn't much to say about Carclo, though, we have to watch and wait. No need to sweat it, when an order (hopefully plural!) comes in we will notice it in the share price before it is announced I think. Could be wrong but it often happens like that. Have you ever read Jesse Livermore's book, "Confessions of a Stock Operator?" I have read it many times, and every time I see something new, some further nuggets of trading wisdom. He says that he made the big money "sitting and waiting." This is one of those times.

Thanks for that Lindon. It confirms what we all know. That a copper based technology is cheaper than the current standard (ITO) and plastic offers a variety of advantages over glass. Thus the potential total market for XSense is massive (Atmel forecast $100 million a year excluding movement into products other than communication devices) and growing. That having had problems getting the production costs down we now have a tablet (manufactured by one of largest hardware companies in the world) in production and a number of other products in the works with a variety of tier one manufacturers. Yet we are at a two year low! People are going to look back at the current price in the 280's and wonder why they didn't get in this gem when it was so cheap. Remember if there was no risk the price would in the stratosphere already and this wouldn't be a buy. Load the truck at these prices or weep. :-)

I totally agree that Carclo is very poor at self promotion, but it is a small company so hasn't got a lot of resource , and it seems to be engineering, rather than marketing led. Not a problem for me though, in fact I like the way it is so under the radar. It is not marketing hype that will make this stock skyrocket, it is the promise of future revenue. Once the orders come in there will be a huge share price break out. And then the lack of marketing won't matter. The rising share price will be its own sales pitch.

It is impossible to pick the bottom, obviously. If you are a TA guy then resistance is circa 264. That is more than a two year low. Before that you have to go back to September 2011 to get a print of 254. Then we get pretty much freefall, down below 200. If you are a chartist that is. I'm not much of one myself, the problem is that others are so it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy! All you can do is set stops and try and be in be when the big move comes. If the big move comes. That is the risk I see. To be too fancy schmantzy, overtrade, and miss news of a big order. As for the lack of short interest (which I hadn't checked recently, so thanks for that) I would say that is good and bad. The only short in town has got out, terrified out what we re hoping for. That has to be good news, as they have big research teams. But bad, because I always like a large short position in stocks I am trading long. As long as I get in after they have built them! :-)

Lindon, are you the Lindon T on the Seeking Alpha board? I have been reading some of his posts on Unipixel articles. Very interesting.

Yeah well the share price is certainly anaemic post this news. I set pretty tight stops for my spread bet positions and they are in danger of being hit, the physical equity has more room to breathe but if it gets stopped out too, c'est la vie, I am not going to sweat it. Hopefully I can buy back lower and increase position size again. The thing is with this play, there is always the danger of some news breaking and having to chase a big move up. At least that is my feeling, I could be wrong. Often am! Interesting to hear that you move your stops up and down. Not a fan of that myself, I have to say. I don't mind moving the stop up, nearer the purchase price, but have found that whenever I have moved it down, it always seems to cost me money. We all trade in our own way, I guess, and I am not going to criticise another trader. It is hard enough to make money in this game, and if you have a system that works all power to you I say...

Well I hope you are right! If you are the share price makes no sense, but then that is the stock market. Once again the "efficient market theory" is proved right. Not! Just in case this is true I have taken out a load of long spread bets on Carclo to go with my physical stock. I even tried to use some money I have in the US to buy the OTC stock for Carclo which trades in New York (CCEGF is the ticker if anyone is interested) but of course it is Thanksgiving today in the US. Duh! This is fantastic news. In for a penny in for a pound! I think we go up from here, Woo Woo!