Member Info for steward1

Just to clarify Snowking and for the benefit of any newbies -
We're expecting Zulu alone to be similar in size to the Firefinch asset with potentially richer Li
Li prices have multiplied since this deal was done.
Zulu holds other rare metals
The EPO area is 57 times the size

Great find, Snowking - it's looking pretty good for Zulu then. I'm expecting a strong finish to the week!

I wonder if Tedoby(?) is around. There's a load of newbies who might benefit from seeing his workings... it would be great if he could update them taking into account the rise in prices and publish again.

I did the sums as well Bridgedogg1 and, as you say, there's no shenanigans in the numbers. It's interesting that GR holds personally as well. size of holding on Circum then I imagine part of the reason is to get a seat or 2 on the Circum board and to influence things. I think that it's a good move but I'm not holding out for anything from it soon! Circum could be worth a few bob though if it gets going!

Back to Zulu - excellent volume again today. We might not hit 0.4 tomorrow but I think we'll be pushing close. If some news hits - like positive assay results - then we'll be over.

I've never been any good at predicting the sp but I can see at least 1p on a deal. I think that will then provoke others to go hostile so we could see as high as 2p. GR seems to have someone who is prepared to follow his approach BUT there will still be others who wanted all of Zulu or who want all of Prem... I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us hit 4p or 5p this year once we start to get news filtering through on the EPO. Hold on to your seats!

It's a positive in my view - it's been a very costly and frustrating purchase so consolidating under Vortex should give Vortex a bigger say compared to GR on his own (who was effectively ignored). If it takes us closer to getting our money back then I'm in favour!

Yes, Welshy - we have to remember that GR has apparently been in discussions since early November (probably earlier) about a deal... that's 3-4 months. It's only now moved to HoT. This is where I think there is a complete mismatch between what GR is prepared to give up and what jv partners want. I've said before that they will want control of Zulu.

One clear factor is that GR hasn't delivered anything on time and does things on the cheap (we're only now getting to 6 drills). That's not how a major does things so they will not want to be subject to his approach. In fact, I think the 3 extra drills have been secured because he's been told that in negotiations.

I guess the question is will GR negotiate a deal acceptable to all parties in the next week or 3... if not, he has to raise funds.

We need volume to stay high to keep the upwards momentum - we might get a day or two where the sp drifts or drops but on news of a deal , we should head to 1p plus.
I'm bullish but let's not ignore the risks here that GR doesn't get a deal done quickly. I do hope that he has learnt from his past failed attempts to get a deal, especially with Cadence. He has to be pragmatic with a view to accelerate everything including the EPO. I think prospective partners will want more than GR is wanting to give up so I hope that he is listening to NH and major shareholders.
I think that there is a risk that he needs to do a small fundraise - clearly, he wasn't spending money on assays last year but he has a COO, a PR person, 3 new contractors, 3 new rigs and other advisers to pay for now. It wouldn't harm his position to get that done now and take the pressure off in negotiations.

Of course, Bick - not as simple as it looks!

Redtrade - yes, a bit pie in the sky but I bet you GR has done some of this very thinking! And, of course, no-one is forcing you to read anything on here. If it doesn't interest you then just pass by! :)

Certainly agree, Bick, that the whole of the project (Zulu plus the EPO area) needs a structured approach.

Just to lay out some figures - big assumptions but can we assume that Zulu might be worth £500m and the EPO area might hold 5 x Zulu.

50% of Zulu 1 (£500m) = £250m

13% of Prem (i.e. Zulu 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 - £3000m) = £390m

25% of Prem (i.e. Zulu 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 - £3000m) = £750m

Of course, the assumption is that Zulu 1 generates enough income to fund the rest of the EPO (I think it will!) so I think I'd rather give up only £250m rather than £390m or £750m.

As Acker says, GR's head must be spinning just now.

Bick - I should have added that the sp would definitely drop if GR chose to go it alone and he would need to use up all the headroom, imho. If 5 or 6 billion new shares are issued and we have just over 19 billion shares in issue now then that is a dilution of 25%!
Even with your calculations, would I want to give up 13% of Prem or 50% of Zulu... answer is still the same... I'd give up 50% of Zulu!
I think it's a moot point anyway!

Bick,
not sure that I've got the wrong end of the stick but I simply can't see GR going it completely alone... given his track record, it would be way too risky and the market would react accordingly. There's been a giant step forward in the last month or two and that would be wasted. There would be dependencies on the DFS being completed in the go-it-alone scenario and I reckon we would be sitting here in a year's time with the sp languishing. I reckon progress on the EPO would be slowed way down too and history would repeat itself. In the long run, what will be more valuable to shareholders is giving up 50% of Zulu rather than 25% of Prem (NB The EPO will be worth a multiple of Zulu!) and it will be quicker to deliver getting a jv partner on board.
Sometime recently, he made a comment that he would have to accept a stonking offer - I think he'll get one, if not from the preferred partner from someone else!

Jamgoo - I agree, great interview. I'm sure that those sums will be getting done in every Lithium boardroom (possibly some private equity firms too) and that's why I don't think GR and the preferred partner will get a free run at Zulu.

What might these boardrooms be prepared to pay now for Prem to have a £5b or £10b company in 5 years time... and this doesn't factor in any of the gold or other rare minerals that are there and doesn't factor in the EPO area either.

..... and we're still only sitting at £60-70M MARKET CAP!!!

Does anyone know which Chinese lithium miners have been happy to do a JV as a junior partner?

I'm wondering if it is just not in their DNA - that would explain GR's emphasis in the interview yesterday and would point to the speculation that one of them might go hostile.

If the end game is having a mine with Prem having a 50% stake then I'd much rather get all of the cash now and hand over the Zulu project to the major to deliver. I think shareholders could all sleep more peacefully in our beds.

As for a valuation, I agree with Bick - Prem=Zulu... and nothing else just now... MNH/RHA are negatives. However, the value of the EPO area will begin to be added as and when we get some drilling results there. I hope that any deal factors in some cash to accelerate this.

All of the above might be moot - lots of speculation swirling that someone is building a stake and that they'll take out Prem altogether.

Wontongue - any potential partner will want to seal the deal asap so that others don't get a look in plus the price of Lithium is still running away with itself. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a deal this week or next.

Another blue day today!

Snowking - how much do you think?

I just can't see the preferred partner getting a free run. It will have to be a very good deal to chase off any other interested party.

There's plenty of speculation swirling that someone is building a stake and will go hostile!

So, we're due to get a cash injection... anyone worked out how much that should be and what should be given in return?

Are we talking £100m to include a mine being built?

Some have suggested 1% for £10m - if the assay results continue that high then it has to be higher surely?

Yes iky... everything has its price though. If someone rolled up with, say, a £400m bid for Zulu, GR would have to put it to shareholders. Similarly, if he received a bid of, say, £800m or a £1b for all of Prem, GR would have to put it to shareholders. I'd find it difficult to resist (bird in the hand and all that!)... that's why he has to get on to the EPO area and produce some decent plans and info about what's in the ground so that we can see that those sorts of figures would be well short of what we could achieve holding on to it.

I like what I heard - I guess that there's several routes to get to a point where we have a producing mine and still have a significant share in it. GR emphasised that he wants the mine in place asap and it's clear with the appointment of the COO and the other bodies that activity has ratcheted up. Given where we were in December, this has taken a big step forward in my view. If he keeps up the pace then I'll be a very happy man. I think a deal will happen quickly. Very interesting that he emphasised that he's not looking to sell 100% of Zulu - clearly, he has had approaches to do just that. Will he get a hostile bid?
Now, the trick is to get the EPO project accelerating too.

Here we go - heading back above 0.3??