Yep, Bick - fair points. I think you meant Q1 2023? Personally, I can't see GR having an operational pilot plant in the stated timescales at the capacity that he expects. All the evidence shows that he can't deliver anything on time and hasn't successfully dug anything out of the ground yet. I guess that he just couldn't get away without mentioning MNH and RHA in the annual report! As for a good enough offer from Suzhou... I'm doubtful. I can see GR refusing any offer until after the pilot plant is done now! Not quite putting these back into the bottom drawer again but if the news last week can't shift this then I don't think anything will until GR delivers that first 5,000 in month 1. I'd be happy to be surprised but I doubt it.
I'm quite perplexed at why the sp hasn't reacted positively at the news last week... my 'tipping point' theory seems to be nonsense!! I accept some of those figures that SK/Chuggley are posting BUT the market doesn't seem to. I've mentioned some drags on the sp last week - I reckon the market just doesn't believe that GR's strategy is the right one and that he won't be able to deliver in the timescale he has stated. Perhaps, the lack of buying is because we're in AIM and lots of actors are looking for a quick buck which isn't going to happen here. It feels like we're back in that period when GR was fighting off all those suitors and the sp stubbornly stayed low. Seems that we're back into Prem drift territory!
RE: Premier is starting to Move into Premier League01 Jul 2022 10:42
Great post HH. Just to be clear, as funds allow, I'll be adding later in the month. I have reservations about the timescale for the mine being met but I've built in my own delay -if we have a producing mine by this time next year, I'll be happy.
What I would really like (and I think this is partly what is holding the sp back) is a better understanding of how much is in the ground... without that, there isn't really a way of valuing Prem. I too expect their to be offers come September but I really do hope GR rejects them until such time as we have more and better info. In any event, I'd much rather hold a significant holding in Zulu for years yet.
PS Anyone got any knowledge on building dams - what permissions are required?
Those numbers look very good... so what's in the ground is looking good.
I'm just going to point out the elephant in the room though - we've got results from 9 out of 82 bore holes. A lot of work is still being re-checked and re-validated... and when did the drilling start? Whilst I like the accelerated timescale for the pilot mine, GR has no track record of delivering in any sort of reasonable timescale.
Up until GR was asked about assay results, I thought that the interview was very good, very good indeed and then we hear (my words, not his) that mapping of the bore holes either wasn't done or not done well enough so had to be re-done?? So it sounds as if GR hasn't had valid assay results to publish?? If I've grasped that properly then there's a big reason why I'm skeptical about GR being able to deliver the pilot mine in the timescale he has published. Having said that, I'm quite relaxed about having a few months delay.
I'm simply taking the RNS as read, Sandy, in good faith. You may have good excuse for not accepting what is said but neither you or I have sight of the plans, the contracts or sight of what's happening on the ground. Your pessimistic view may well have served your trading well but the turnaround is on and Vast has 'material' extra revenue that wasn't on our radar only a few months ago.
Snowking, it should bother you what % Suzhou hold. GR can't keep giving away %'s of Prem... there'll be nothing left. I sincerely hope that GR is not taking your advice anymore - Suzhou got an absolutely cracking deal when they took 13% of Prem. Surely, once the pilot mine is producing, we'll not need to give anymore of Prem away? There will be no need to go cap in hand to Suzhou.
A lot of the noise has come from the naysayers... now that Atlas are out of the way, the churn of the 460m new shares is (almost?) over... another 85m traded yesterday... and we're seeing real progress, they've gone quiet. SP will soon turn north again. The turnaround is on!
Sandy - there's a step change going on here. The past has certainly been painful (an understatement, I know) but I'm backing a strong recovery and for the sp to rebound in the next few weeks and months.
Atlas shares had gone by 21/6. Not sure at all about your 4 x placing shares rule of thumb.
I seem to have a more optimistic outlook than you, Sandy. The RNS yesterday set out quite a change in pace (6 weeks ahead of plan) and I'm expecting the news flow to continue in that positive vein. If anything, this time round, AP will have set expectations lower than he expects to achieve. If he has increased production in June, he'll be shouting about it soon enough.
These guys are absolutely determined to prove the naysayers wrong!
I think the conditions for a drop to 0.6 have passed for the time being - not sure what you're rationale is. The good news flow has already started and I'd expect more to come in the next few weeks. Atlas are out of the way and the overhang from the 460m shares must be very close to being over, if not already over. Turnaround is on!