George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
IQ/Muck - you can see why lenders would be supportive and why AP would be confident that there is no imminent financial disaster... in fact, it really does sound like this worm has turned (Two Ronnies reference... probably wasted in anyone under 55!).
Could be a fantastic turnaround story here! I would be very, very happy if we got back to last year's highs and would dare to dream, if it all falls into place, it could go much higher. Risk/Reward is looking even better this week.
Despite my negative views about GR, I never thought that we would be floundering at this price again but I'm still very nervous about whether Zulu will get over the line.
Good of him to give us the heads up that he needs more cash (no surprise there) and that we'll get a resource statement this quarter. It does appear that Zulu is not yet a bankable asset... wonder why he can't get a loan in the short term!!??!!
Really not sure about the timing of this RNS though - there is nothing concrete in it and all of it could have been released later - he's bound to have known that the sp would drop further!
I thought there were a lot of positives in that interview -
- reassurance that lenders are supportive and debt extension in the future is anticipated
- explanation of the debt update RNS
- reassurance that the co isn't going bust anytime soon
- reassurance from a number of sources that the diamonds do exist
- a number of other revenue-generating arrangements are in the pipeline
- doesn't sound like there will be any placing needed
And I assume that he couldn't talk a lot about BP production because the RNS hasn't been issued yet.
Yes, Ivans, after a confusing couple of days, we can now look forward to an update on BP production where we expect to see continued progress in the last quarter (hoping that AP will get this out asap). Would be helpful to understand what other income VAST is receiving from Taj projects.
Given what is stated in these RNS's, I'm also more confident that AP can re-finance without the need for the creditors to take any threatened action. Let's see what the production update says!
Oofy - tbh, I don't know about Mercuria's MO, etc but, come 1st March, they have the ability to take action and will chose whether to or not at that time. I'm sure that AP will make his case.
As for the ZimGov's response, they want and, I'd suggest need, to be a country where foreign companies can operate without the historic shenanigans (and worse). I believe that there will be some satisfactory outcome at some stage regarding the diamonds.
Sandy - very interesting!
I wonder if the issue is with the ZimGov or with the Bank. AP made it clear that the ZimGov were supporting his pursuit of the diamonds and apparently want VAST back into the country. The Bank governor was a Mugabe appointment and is being replaced in April when his 2nd term is up. As far as I'm aware, it is the bank who are not complying with the court order.
IQ157 - I think you could be right. Hopefully, we won't have to wait too long for the BP production report.
I won't read too much into why AP decided to have two RNS's in two days but I think it's quite positive looking now after yesterday's disappointing update.
The comment regarding the dilution is a very pleasant surprise. I'm assuming that AP now has enough income to make this work and that the BP production figures should be good. As I've mentioned before, I think AP's strategy will be to play for time regarding the debt and get those production figures up. I'm beginning to think the unthinkable here!
I agree Muck165 - he's got a massive mountain to climb but I don't think AP is the kind of guy to give up. As others have said, because of the nature of the collateral, it could take many months/years for VAST to be forced to act. AP will have some idea of how production is going and how it will continue to rise. Can he see a point in the not-too-distant future where production and copper prices are enough to support a re-financing deal coupled with another placing??
Feels like in the months up to now, AP has been able to give the creditors enough of an update on the diamonds for them to continue to support him. Either they've now decided that enough is enough or he's told them something that they don't like.
AP now needs to look for funding and he is not in a great position unless he can convince potential lenders that BP is delivering the goods. I think he'll take the Rishi approach and play for as much time as possible... in the meantime, he needs BP to start producing much better numbers.
I'd be very surprised if there is not another placing soon.
I think that all depends on production at BP and other income from the likes of Taj. Could be that he looks for approval for a placing for part of the funds needed and finance for the rest. If AP had any good news then I think we would have heard it before that RNS, I'm afraid.
Yes, asi, I don't think anything is going to happen imminently but I don't like it when different wording is used in an RNS compared to what's gone before. It signals that something has changed, in my mind, so I reckon that the creditors have run out of patience. Certainly doesn't seem to be an imminent sale of the diamonds expected so, perhaps, AP has negotiated time to get approval for some increased headroom or to get some other funding organised.
I had hoped for some better news but I guess we're back t waiting for the BP production update.
We're waiting for news on a number of fronts but the regular monthly update on the debt funding hasn't come yet. For months, it has come within the first few days of the month and, here we are, now into the 3rd week of the month. The last update on 4th December simply said that discussions to extend the debt from 30th Nov were happening. Either discussions are still happening - why? - or they've been concluded - why no update? - or something else major is happening. I'm leaning towards the latter - a long term extension or the diamonds have been/are being sold?
There were suggestions that something was leaked in between Christmas and New Year... maybe adding 1 and 1 and getting 3 but it does feel like something bigger than a debt extension is happening??
Seems to be rising on not much volume so maybe some big buy orders in the background.
Best case scenario is that the diamonds are being returned, debt is repaid (or reduced to a more manageable level), BP production is up and Taj is delivering cash... optimism on a Friday! Stranger things have happened!!
Not at all surprised that folk see this as a gamble - it has been a complete mess. The whole saga with Atlas around 2 years ago was just bonkers. AP doesn't do himself any favours at all because comms are so bad and execution seems to be very challenging for him. There are some though that thought he wouldn't get anything out of BP and Taj was a complete surprise for everyone. I'm not defending him, I just think that there is progress. Can he turn it round completely... possibly but that's where the risk/reward is attractive. Who knows, your £100 could multiply or you could lose a chunk of it?
Can't remember if it was on here or somewhere else that I argued that he needs a longer term financing plan, regardless of the diamonds. If BP and Taj are delivering, can he not get longer term support rather than this month by month cliff edge?
Rather naive to think that the RBZ are allowing anyone in to their vaults... especially when there appears to be some controversy over ownership.
I appreciate that there are some here that hate AP with some venom and that there are others (maybe some of the same) that have got a financial interest in the sp dropping more but please be real.
FWIW, of course, there is a possibility that the diamonds are not there and that the whole thing is caught up in the shenanigans between the government and the bank BUT, officially, the diamonds are there and, if they're missing, then compensation is due from RBZ. Personally (and this is pure speculation), I think that the return of the diamonds (or not) is tied in with a plan to re-start operations in Zim.