Toffers - good post. I agree with everything and would probably also emphasise that the economy is beginning to recover... inflation down, interest rates down, energy prices down, etc. with a potential tax cut coming along. After a few brutal years, it's all beginning to ease... that old Superdry hoodie will have been well worn and it's time for a new one!
Will JD go down the administration route... absolutely not. And if there was any inkling at all... even the slightest possibility, he would have to announce something to the market.
Can JD turn this around? Absolutely. Has he got the backing? Looks like it... and folks like Farrell and Salazar are buying.
Key question... Is it worth more than the current sp? I think so - my guess is that there will be an offer next week in the region of £1.10-£1.30.
There is clearly interest in undervalued UK companies because they will be worth a lot, lot more in a couple of years.
If I've got anything against JD, it is that he wants to take this private and not allow small investors like us benefit from the full recovery.
Liberum seemed to switch to being a big net buyer yesterday... difficult to know exactly what they're up to but another positive for holders.
Will be very interesting if we get a RNS on the 800,000+ buy from after hours last night.
Dazza - I think the shorters finally woke up earlier today and they've disappeared like snow off a dyke as they say around these parts. Another sign that it's becoming more and more likely that we'll see an offer.
Wouldn't want to be out of this overnight!
Glad to see SDRY back up over 40p but I'd guess with all those low single and double digit trades that there is a bot running trying to keep the sp down to allow shorts to close.
If it's not shorters then who else would have an interest in keeping the sp down?
I've been out this afternoon but would I be right in saying that we've had the brakes put on with an auction or two?
Just my humble opinion but it's clear that there is a bid coming!
Personally, I wouldn't underestimate the ability of those who would want to keep the sp suppressed for a period of time... lots of tactics available to keep a lid on this. Look out for some delayed reports of buys later in the day or after hours. Given the news, I'd be surprised if GSA don't attempt to close their short... they're professionals and will do it in an organised fashion. There might be others with shorts of less than 0.5% too.
The shackles will come off at some stage and this will fly.
They're in St James' Quarter in Edinburgh - the big new plush shopping destination bang in the centre of Edinburgh... very busy... but they're also in Ocean Terminal in Leith (this is where the Royal Yacht is) which is a bit of a desert now... White Stuff, Fat Face, Debenhams all closed down there during the pandemic... it's got a big cinema complex so I expect attracts a younger crowd so Superdry might be doing well there.
I'd expect things to move quickly from here.
I suspect JD already had the finance there or thereabouts when the first RNS dropped. Doubt very much if SDRY will accept the first offer unless JD has gone for a knockout. Personally, I can't see £600m myself but I think there will be many who are happy to accept £150-£200m.
I might be wrong but JD has to bid at least at the highest sp he has paid in the last year if he breeches 30%.
Michael Farrell clearly knows that there is a bid incoming.
I was surprised that we haven't had a 'reacting to market speculation' RNS but I guess that it was already public news that JD is considering a bid. I'm surprised as well that the sp hasn't jumped further but I reckon that there's a load of shenanigans going on to hold the price back... after yesterday's double news of Michael Farrell's stakebuilding and Sky's report, a load of folks will have found themselves on the wrong side of the fence. At some point today, the shackles will come off and this will fly.
Not sure about that opinion hasiba.
I'm inclined to think that GR has had to go to Canmax to persuade them to support his proposal and Canmax have said that they'll support this fundraise as long as GR doesn't look to get repaid out of the proceeds. GR is trying to put a positive spin on it by releasing the RNS. Canmax have learnt that they can't trust him... and for very good reason!
Looking very positive for tomorrow morning!
Confirmation of big money behind JD plus some guy taking a good chunk of shares is good news but, then again, I doubt if JD would have started down this path unless he had backing. Could see the 1st bid coming in very soon.
Not sure if these points have already been made but
1) the bid for Currys shows that there are investors who see some positivity in the UK retail sector. Recovery is underway. I'm sure that JD sees it the same way.
2) JD doesn't appear to me the kind of guy that would shaft anyone so I doubt if he'll go down the CVA route. Might sound naive to most of us but I think he wants to do right by his staff, his landlords, etc, etc.
So much for a bank loan!
I don't comment so much on Prem now but this is concerning... not only does he need cash to pay all those bills but he needs an unknown amount of cash once in production. Plus there doesn't seem to be much confidence around the sorters.
And, of course, they could drop the ball again!
PS I'd be pretty miffed if I had been on GR's e-mailing list!
Some folk on here are way too sensitive and tetchy!
We're all speculating, pecten, to one degree or another... and it's very clear that this situation cannot be interpreted on a like for like basis. Let's just say that it's much more likely than not that the market cap will rise when the debt is repaid, isn't it?
They don't make it easy to understand, ASI, do they!
My point to pecten (and you) was that the upside to the consolidation and placing is that the debt is paid off... that would increase the market cap substantially and, who knows, our consolidated holdings could be worth more than they are pre-consolidation.
If VAST were to issue 8.4b shares after consolidation at 0.6p then that would put £50m in their coffers, ASI!
No, there would be around 2.3b shares in issue, debt would be paid off and the market cap would reflect that. Rather devious for some to suggest that anyone's holding is going to be WORTH a lot less when the debt would be paid off.