Happy to post again for Malik's benefit :)14 Feb 2022 10:15
Acker, as promised - well the tipping point has certainly come – the last couple of weeks have been great but I think we just haven’t seen anything yet.
PREM has long been undervalued (the GR effect) and the last 2 weeks shows some correction but I think it is still well undervalued, quite apart from any potential deal or any hostile bid.
Could someone be building a stake? Yes but equally it could be lots of people building small stakes (could be many more like Progress101)? It could be a rejected suitor? Could be Ganfeng? Could be an oiler looking to diversify further? Could be private equity? Could be an individual like JG? Could be corporates/funds?
Buyers this week are perhaps attracted by a potential deal or bid but it is interesting that we’re attracting people like Progress101. This shows that there is a greater awareness of the significance of Li amongst serious individual investors and an appreciation that security of supply is paramount – with the EPO area, PREM Li assets could become the “North Sea oil” of Lithium?
What is a realistic valuation of Zulu now? Potentially, Zulu alone from Lithium alone could be delivering profit in the high hundreds of millions if not over the billion mark for 20 plus years. There are other rare minerals which some suggest could deliver the same amount of profit. A deal could be done which values Zulu at £400m or £500m now, imho.
What value could then be placed on Prem as a whole – with the EPO area, 57 times bigger than Zulu, there might not be 57 x the amount of Lithium or other rare minerals and you wouldn’t simply multiply the Zulu valuation by 57 at this stage but with the potential for billions worth of profit per annum, one could assume that the EPO area could currently add several hundred million, if not a billion to a valuation if there was to be a deal on Prem as a whole. There are other assets but they’re insignificant compared to the EPO area.
GR might think he is in control and he might only want a deal on Zulu and he might only want a certain type of deal on Zulu but I think he will find that events might overtake him. When he announces a deal on Zulu, I think that there is a good chance that there is then a bidding war for Prem as a whole.
Yes, someone like Ganfeng could be building a stake but if/when that is confirmed the sp will go through the roof. Some think that this will be lucky to reach 1p this year – I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 2/2.5 on the announcement of the Zulu deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if we then kept going to 5p this year or even 10p. I certainly would be happy with 10p but I’m in Prem for the long term and I’d love to still be holding and getting a dividend of 1p or 2p a year. It would be disappointing if GR is set on keeping majority control of Zulu and loses Prem... and we all then lose out!
Anyway, I think the investor clamour for Prem will only intensify so, yes, I’m very bullish – Prem could become the Tesla/Microsoft/Apple of mining stocks!!!