Member Info for SteveV

I doubt it. That is private medicine applying a huge premium for what they do.

This is Numis's "Blue sky" revenue forecast: sp target 3400p

Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue(Euros m) 355 1001 512 270 192

I am very confident we will achieve 355m in 2020. I think there is a very good chance we may get 1001m in 2021.
I have no idea what 2022 will look like !?

Ah great Shaun thanks. so it's official, we can definitely make 1500 per month.

I don't recall any official production capacity figure issued by NCYT for Q16/32.
We know now it has increased 5 fold, but from what?
Are people getting confused with the 300 DHSC order to get 300 x 5 =1500

Yes...5 TIMES scale up !!!

It's very hard to tell. That figure of £406m we have known for a while,BUT it was never at all clear or explained how you get to that figure from phase1, phase 1 extension, and Maybe some or all of phase 2.

Hey Bramely, when the huge DHSC contract was announced NCYT specifically said in the RNS that they had capacity to provide for the Phase 1 (300units) AND phase 2 (700 units).

The 5 fold increase in production capacity(Freakin HUGE) is, I think, subsequent to, and in ADDITION to any of those phases(probably care homes and MORE hospitals)

Also, I can see why people are tempted to put on a stop loss on their holding to protect their investment,
HOWEVER, In my opinion that is basically an invitation for someone to buy shares from you at a lower level that you didn't really want to sell at. You are TELLING the market makers , yes please have my shares at this reduced price.

Would you do that if you were selling your car or house??

Traders, market makers, and hedge funds love volatile stocks. That is where they make their money.
And in doing so they exacerbate the volatility.
For the rest of us simple investors; Stay with the fundamentals, and follow the money!

I think it is not inconceivable to think that we may end up with Q16, Q32 machines in every care home and hospital in the UK.
A permanent, highly accurate, near person testing solution, that is easy to use.
That will generate astronomical revenues for the foreseeable.

WOW..is that why we have just announced a 5 fold increase in production capacity !?

Hey HarChris,
The Numis target of 1365p is actually a weighted average of the 4 scenarios they pose.
Base(40%) 387m Euros revenue for 2021...... sp 950p
Bull(40%) 609m Euros revenue for 2021....... sp1500p
Base(10%) 305m Euros revenue for 2021.......sp 450p
Blue Sky(10%) 1001m Euro revenue for 2021...sp 3400p

So if we hit over 1 billion revenue next year Numis is saying 3400p.
I think we can do that !!

Matt Han****s exact words.(today)
"We must have a massive diagnostics capacity not just for this pandemic but long into the future"

Todays NCYT R&D update
1 Successful Near patient trials
2 Huge increase in manufacturing capacity of Q16/Q32 testing machines
3 Introduction of Promate to make said testing easier and quicker.

The 300 machines plus kit for phase the DHSC was worth a minimum of £150m
So add 1200 extra machines plus kit adds another £600m revenue over and above what we already new about.
I think doing over £1 billion revenue next year is definitely on the cards.
Massive rollout of machines and kit to Care homes and NHS is coming.

Just said on TV that the government are planning a permanent diagnostics infrastructure.

Testing is not going away.

Exactly, post pandemic when things are slowly getting back to normal care homes and hospitals(and others) are still going to need extensive testing.
Not expensive super labs, what we need is near person, HIGHLY accurate, easy to use tests.
I can envisage a Q16/Q32 machine in every hospital and care home. Mass testing of vulnerable people on a regular basis as and when required, locally, with super accurate results within an hour.
Vaccine, yeah great...but testing is here to stay.

Could have an impact, however, Novacyt have such great margins it isn't going to be a barrier to trading.
And premium products will always be in demand.

Who's know when, but certainly that one won't be helping at all this winter.

The BBC are reporting:
“Moderna are currently scaling up their European supply chain which means these doses would become available in spring 2021 in the UK at the earliest," a government spokesperson says.
"......SPRING AT THE EARLIEST....." March then, at the earliest !!

CEO buying £500k worth at £817.
Did he think vaccine news would be imminent. Sure he did. Speaks volumes.

Looks like we are much more stable than the first vaccine news, which is ironic if the current one is better than the first.

By the time the tenth vaccine is announced it will probably have no effect on NCYT sp.