Member Info for SteveV

80% accuracy...Lol

"....The innovation is expected to be a world first and would revolutionise point of care testing globally. ...."

GLOBALLY !

That'll be mopping up all the private investors with stop losses who gave away all their shares at a 20% discount!

Stay calm and hold...

This is also why NCYT test is the gold standard because they update it regulary

What is the betting quite a lot of people have set stop losses at a tenner from £12.

Like taking candy from a baby for the MM's. You are basically advertising to a large buyer " here have my shares at a 20% discount"
I never use a stop loss.

I should think that is what a lot of pundits do. Take a position in a share early on, then talk it up in the hope they may be influence a rise, then sell.

We aren't really retail, it's governments that buy our tests !!! (mainly because they are so accurate !!)

He was also talking about valuing it currently at 1.5 times cash, which he guesstimated at maybe 600m by end of 2021.
£900m , or an sp of £12.74.
BUT he also said Winterplex will be a game changer AND is expecting a takeout by Glaxo.

I wonder what criteria a big pharma is using to initiate a takeover.
You might think in the case of NCYT they would want to get in early to get a better deal. That clearly hasn't happened.
Are they waiting for for greater market penetration/positioning to be achieved and become embedded like with our NHS, but maybe also in France and USA. Are they waiting to see what cash pile we are accumulating. The guy on the pi world video seems convinced Glaxo will take us out.

Shaun,
Yes, truly a unique stock is NCYT. How do you value a stock like this? Making Hundreds on millions in profit in the very short term, but what are they going to be making in 5 years time? Is it a bubble that will burst or are they positioning them selves well for the future.?

Hey Shaun,
Yes, the forecast revenues do differ significantly. What I find interesting is your forecast is VERY bullish on revenue but you have the lowest valuation. It implies if Numis were using your revenue forecasts we would be in their "Blue sky" territory 3400p + !! Time will tell !
https://filebin.net/mgx37vi5kexgvfz8

I'll update as more valuations come in (we are still waiting for the French one)

For anyone who missed my last post I have compiled a comparison of revenue forecasts and target price for
Numis, Sp Angel, and of course Shaun P.
https://filebin.net/mgx37vi5kexgvfz8

SP Angel have the lowest by far estimated revenue forecasts compared to Shaun or Numis, however they give the highest price target. (and says that is conservative). They also use DCF (as does Numis) to make their valuation.

Hey Shaun, I agree valuing this share is a tricky one.
I see reading Numis full note they use a discounted cash flow to make their valuation based on various scenarios of future earnings going to 2024.
I see that in their "Bull" case (page 37)which they value at 1500p per share Numis assumes substantially less revenue than you have guestimated for 2020/2021

Table 17: Novacyt bull case DCF valuation
Year end December (€m) 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenues 355 609 164 117 99
- growth 2617% 71% -73% -29% -16%
EBITDA 272 463 92 51 33
- % sales 77% 76% 56% 43% 34%
Working capital (94) (59) 121 15 7
Tax (35) (65) (14) (7) (5)
Capex (inc. M&A) (8) (3) (3) (3) (2)
Free-cash flow 135 336 196 55 34
PV of Cash flow 144 334 180 47 26
PV FCF ¼732m
PV terminal value ¼444m
Implied EV €1176m
Net cash/(debt) -¼7m
Equity value €1169m
EUR per GBP 1.11
Equity value (£m) £1054m
No. shares (dil.) 71
Value per share (p) 1500p

The Times and Standard are reporting that Heathrow is due to offer testing from Tuesday.
The Standard says:
"The private test costs £80 and aims to provide results in around one hour. Those interested in using the facility required to book a test online before making their way to the airport....
To start, the facilities will offer LAMP testing and will expand to offer antigen testing in the coming weeks....
Unlike PCR tests, which are used by the NHS, LAMP and antigen tests can be processed without being sent to a laboratory.

The testing facilities will initially be open for four weeks...."

Quite. I am sure Numis will update their note as and when Novacyt update the market with ACTUAL sales figures AND a forward looking sales forecast, which hopefully will align with a Blue sky valuation.
Until then you really are getting ahead of your self.

Hey Shaun, I didn't quite understand your reply to my post.
I was assuming that , regardless of orders incoming, revenue for a period (sales) is anything that has been invoiced.

It is probably only going to be stage one of the DHSC oder that is included in sales for this year.
That is what Numis is assuming I think.
From our RNS "This first phase of the contract will involve the immediate deployment of 300 PCR instruments, related kits and support services with a minimum value of £150 million for the first 14 weeks. "

Bomber, "stay invested" you have NO choice in the matter. You can't buy OR sell.
Most likely your shares are worthless (mine to!)

To be honest I didn't realise a third party made our machines. Seems like a pretty cheap acquisition though.
And I like this bit:
"As a result of this acquisition, Novacyt will become a diagnostic platform instrument and reagent manufacturer and will significantly increase the manufacturing capability of IT-IS to manage the expected demand for its q16 and q32 PCR instruments. As a result of higher manufacturing volume, the Company expects to reduce its cost of goods and therefore improve the gross margin of its instrument sales. "