Member Info for SteveV

Let's not forget this little gem from the 16th Nov R&D update.

".....Further to the announcement on 15 October 2020 when Novacyt acquired IT-IS International, the Company has significantly increased the manufacturing capability of IT-IS to manage the growing demand for its q16 and q32 instruments. From November 2020, the Company has scaled-up manufacturing capacity for instrument production more than five-fold, with further expansion planned, depending on continued demand...."

Take careful note of the last sentence. Because of DEMAND (i.e we can only assume that means firm orders/sales) they had to increase production 5 fold. (5 fold increase is unheard of !!!) AND they may have to increase that AGAIN if demand
continues.

So I can only assume Nov/Dec have been MASSIVE months for NCYT. And if they are selling 5 fold machines then surely they must be selling 5 fold test kits. Could possibly be 20million tests in Nov and 20Million in Dec. 40million x $10 =$400m.!!!!!!!!

NCYT are certainly keeping us in the dark and leaving us struggling to make sense of what is going on.

Was the £406m contract phase1(£150m)+ phase 1 extension(£100m) +a big chunk added "...Based on this initial period, a further £100 million of revenue could be expected for the subsequent 10 weeks, however volumes can be varied up or down subject to certain notice criteria given by the DHSC. ..."

OR, was the £406m phase 1(£150m, or £150m+£100m) AND phase 2, with a big chunk knocked off of the second phase which was not fixed in terms definite take up volume or £'s

I wonder if phase 2 of the contract is partly contingent on the NPT clinical trials in care homes.
We now have Promate which allows testing and processing to be done outside lab environments.

I could imagine Q16/32's in every care home using Promate kits.

I think Public health authorities are more concerned about populations rather than individuals, so it make more sense to them to spread the dosing and vaccinate more people. I think they are making the judgement that one dose may be enough to prevent deaths and as many hospitalisations(which are currently struggling near capacity in some areas).
Trouble is that approach will leave a lot of the very vulnerable in limbo. Do you start to lead a normal(ish) life after one dose or stay locked down for another 12 weeks. My 88 year old father has been living alone and not leaving the house since March !!!

Yes, that management consultant buy surely speaks volumes.
I don't suppose many consultants, who are by their nature a temporary arrangement, come in to advise a company (for a large fee - no doubt) that ACTUALLY decide to Buy £90k worth of shares (sp £8.93).

Hey Mac, well that's another way to grow the business, probably takes a little longer though.
It kinda depends IF and when Covid revenue starts to tale off. We just really don't know. But if Covid revenue starts to drop off a cliff I'd prefer a more ready to go replacement to fill the gap.

Hey HarChris, I would be inclined to disagree. I suspect the senior management have already got a plan in mind where they would like to take the business with acquisitions. I think by April next year they will have some serious targets in mind, and the cash to splash.
We don't need anything like the huge revenues that Covid is making to become a sustainable major player. But we do need more stability in terms of revenue in perpetuity.

I think an acquisition is key. We will have shed loads of cash. Need to buy a diagnostics company that is NOT related to Covid
but which is profitable and generating substantial revenue. Keep the income stream going on the march to a sustainable mid cap company. That way we won't see such a volatile sp and might see Numis's "Blue sky" valuation.

More likely rumour mongering for their own gain. Maybe they want to cash out and are trying to pump the price.

Who knows. Time will tell. Don't trust most of what you read on social media.

The MHRA have not authorised part doses so that certainly won't happen initially. They specified two full doses.

Who, where exactly?. Are they in any way credible? Anyone can say anything on twitter, especially if it serves their purpose!

Hey HarChris. Yes that's true, however I don't think the Oxford vaccine will turn out to be 95% effective.
The jury is still out on that one, partly because they ****ed up the dosage on the trial. Oddly the half dose/full dose which appeared to be the most effective was not approved by the MHRA. Time will tell I guess how good it is.

Let's not forget Numis's note was assuming the vaccine rollout. They assumed the Oxford vaccine would be available start of 2021. (quite impressive prediction from mid October)

£250m would be around Numis's Bear/base scenario 450p-950p
£350m would exceed Numis's Bull/Blue sky scenario. 1500p- 3400p

The market hates surprises and todays RNS was NO surprise at all. Already priced in.
What we have next is a long run up to the results. I am guessing we might see a slow but steady climb as we get into Jan.
and a bit of a flurry towards mid-late Jan. Let's face it these results have been eagerly anticipated, and may be the truly transformational moment we are hoping for.
I would guess moving up to around £10 before results then a sharp movement up or down after results are out.

I really can't see how NCYT, AND all there manufacturing partners won't be producing at FULL capacity and selling all their tests currently, and for at least the next 3-4 months.

Yes, any short term targets in Q4 would be for vertical integration. i.e they will be simply to strengthen our already strong position. They will NOT be to diversify our product offering post Covid slow down. That will happen next year.

Some people are definitely getting ahead of themselves and seem a little impatient. Covid sales are Increasing right now. We will be making so much money Jan. Feb. March. April 2021 we won't know what to do with it all.
Well actually GM does know what he is going to do with it. Diversify the product range/sales by acquisition and grow the business.

Plus no one seems to be talking about Covid NEXT winter. The vaccines will roll and covid will go away in the summer, but come next winter you can be sure it will be back( Has the flu been erradicated, or does it come back every year?)

p.s. sorry typo, those Numis estimates should be Euros not £'s

Hey Jungla, I think some people are getting carried away with revenue forecasts, however I think yours is definitely on the low side.
We know H1 was £75m with guidance that H2 would be higher than H1.....so £150m absolute minimum.
BUT, that was before the £406m contract with £150 million in the first phase.
That is why Numis have £300m as base case with £350 as the Bull case.
If the revenue turns out to be £190m as per your guestimate then the SP will tank.
As per my previous post I am going for £344m

Yes , NOT clear at all. We have been over this before and not reached a firm conclusion.
There are only 2 contracts
The 63m contract does tally with the 288000 test for six months.
The 406m is much more tricky and does not appear to tally with Phase 1, phase 1 extension, or phase 2 which ever way to try to arrive at 406m.