Member Info for SteveV

Hey B2, yes, but we know there will be strong demand in 2020. That won't be news. What we don't know is how much.
Obviously it is very difficult to put a fiqure on it, but some indication of magnitude of scale would help people value the business more accurately.

Plus, I think it is fairly universally agreed that 2021 will be even bigger. It would be nice if NCYT would put some kind of quantitive guidance on that, more so than simply ..."we expect strong demand to continue in 2021"

What I would say is. Because Thermo Fisher's takeover of Qiagen got knocked back( $10billion) AND they have had to make do with the relative minnow that is Mesa Biotech ($450million), then it's quite possible they are still in the market for more acquisitions. They clearly have the cash. (they still got circa $9.5 billion to spend !!!! )

Hey Deas, that's true. It's really a pointless comparison without all the figures.

Except NCYT revenue for the year will likely be around 20% Quidels, so unfortunately you would have to divide their valuation by 5 on that basis.

Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr 2021 will absolutely no doubt be the biggest months in NYCT history.

They are a hitting the ground running at peak output in the middle of a global pandemic.
They produce one one the premier diagnostics products in the world with massive demand.

Huge!

Well what is clear is NCYT MUST know what 2020 revenue is now. All the numbers have been crunched.

Is it simply positive anticipation, or leaking insider information, that is pushing the price up now. Probably both.!

I can see sp easily hitting £13 before close of play Friday.

Next week could be a watershed moment for NCYT and us all.

I wonder if NCYT is working on anything that would make pooled sampled testing very easy to carry out outside the lab.
I don't have any idea about the logistics of pooled sampling.

Could be a game changer though for schools, etc. Maybe a Q16/32 machine in every school, using Promate. You test each class as a pooled sample. Using the Q32 you could test the whole school or 32 classes in one run of the machine.!!!!

Imagine that, testing the whole school in an hour or two with a highly accurate PCR test.

You could be right Porky. If we assume a £350m revenue for 2020 is potentially bid able at circa 10 times revenue to give a takeover price at £50 per share, we know 2021 revenue is predicted AND expected to be substantially higher, if not more than double 2020. So, say, a £700m revenue for 2021 gives a takeover price at potentially £100 per share !!!

BUT Numis's "Blue sky" valuation suggest that revenue for 2021 could be £900m. IF that happens, at the end of 2021 you could say that equates to a takeover price of £128 per share ...!!!? Surely not. Wow!!!

I must admit I would be tempted at £50

Hey WelshTopTrader, we might think so, but I don't think companies the size of Thermo Fisher or Abbot , etc. work like that.
They are more likely to be happy to pay the going rate for a tried and trusted businesses with proven cutting edge tech. and demonstrable revenue streams.

Anyway to late now for them to get in quick. We are going to know what 2020 revenue was next week.

Wow ...ten times revenue acquistion of a business very similar to NCYT.
If we can manage 2020 revenue around £350, that would be £3.5Billion. - Share price of £50

Easier to use, AND, approved for use OUTSIDE labs.

I'm with you Porky. Let's hold out for some big numbers.££ I'm in no rush.

I agree. If the BOD use the cash pile to buy revenue streams wisely we will not doubt attain midcap status.

So far they have acquired IT-IS international (Q16/32Machines). A PROFIT making business. AND subsequent to the purchase increased production output by 5 times!!!!!!

Not a bad start ?!

Check out the ODX board for a different point of view. They don't seem to bothered there.

I did think Porky's price target of £100 was a little bit ambitious, however on reflection I am not so sure.

If we look at Numis's "blue sky" valuation at 3400p. It is based on a discounted cash flow over five years to 2024.

What is notable is how they predict a sharp dwindling in revenue by the time we get to 2024.(demand for PCR testing dropping substantialy)

BUT as we read some analysts are now predicting that is actually NOT going to be the case at all , revenues are set to increase and stabilize.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/covid-19-diagnostics-market

So if you plug those kind of fiqures into Numis's projection then £100 per share is actually not much of a stretch. Mind boggling!!!!!

Oh and lets not forget what Abbot said.
"(Reuters) - Abbott Laboratories ABT.N said it expects demand for its COVID-19 tests to grow in 2021 even if a vaccine is developed and for the business to eventually stabilize into a lucrative new franchise. ..."

OK, I'm a bit confused with all the Vari stuff.

So is it the case that:
1 NCYT have registered a trademark Novacyt-VariPLEX ,But we don't know as yet what that is for but it could be the new lamp test due to roll out soon.

2 A German company already have a lamp test called VariplexTM but it looks like in trials it wasn't much good.

If both 1 and 2 are the case not sure why NCYT have decided to name a test so similarly to a one that would appear to be substandard.

I wonder if this news might be a catalyst for a large US company to make a bid for us.
$50Bn on testing means the likes of Abbott and Thermo Fisher will be rolling in cash.

RMS..oh look at the chart...Gonna make a lot of money... or lose a lot !!