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Cliff,
From what I understand the Cornerstone investor(s) are plan A, but there are other interested parties Stateside, and the amended Bond terms were added to accommodate them potentially signing. The DigBee accreditation would be particularly useful for such investors.
It’s not been the best of days, that’s for sure.
But for what it’s worth, I understand that the cornerstone investor is still looking to subscribe to the full $80m bond.
Word is that it’s a group of investors coming together as one, and there have been a few issues with one of the group.
They required the use of EuroClear, and this took far longer to set up than expected. Secondary, one of the Swiss banks was involved in part of the process and the investor is now waiting on amended routing instruction.
Paul has stated on Telegram the board is still very confident that this will happen, as am I, but none of this means anything until the paperwork arrives.
Take from the above what you will.
I’ve topped up too.
This drop is just daft. Ok, timelines have slipped based on the recent corporate presentation, but there are still interested parties.
The loan will cost us $80k and the Board are confident this will be settled within the 3 month term.
The warrants will bring in £840k, and dilute us by 1.6%. Not the end of the world. But yes, kind of against the “no dilution” mantra.
The DigBee ‘A’ rating is excellent and will ease permitting and attract other investors. There’s not many miners getting an A.
The terms of the bond are broadly the same, and if copper rises as expected then it would be the copper-linked price that applies anyway. Good for all of us.
I think people have overreacted to a perceived delay. I’m sure the picture will look different by the time the AGM is here.
Stan.
I don’t.
And Paul has indicated on Telegram the same.
What I think may have had an effect though is the interest rate rises. The Board indicated a base rate of 8.5%, but it’s possible the cornerstone investor has looked to squeeze us on that over the last few months, given the changing landscape.
I’m sure the bond will happen, but maybe with a slightly higher floor rate, and tweaked ratchets linked to the copper price.
Time will tell.
These are fantastic numbers.
Remember, this is for the open pit. Shallow, easily accessible, cheap to extract.
It also gives indication of the riches that may await us deeper down.
The 12% grade is obviously exciting to see, but even the lower grades are exciting bearing in mind that the average grade from all mining today is about 0.5%.
Sure we need the finance and other regulatory steps in place to get this out, but if you believe that it’s going to happen then yesterdays fall is just a gift.
Stan.
We all have our own strategies, and I have no doubt that Trek will have played it well.
I did play the other side today though, and picked up another 60k shares for my core holding.
It might drip lower, it might bounce, but long term these should represent a bargain.
The wait for news is frustrating, but news will come. Paul has suggested a general corporate update shortly, so hopefully we get clarity of the way ahead.
However you play the market, good luck out there.
Stan.
There's nothing new in this, but Empire was briefly mentioned during the last BLM Resource Advisory Committee meeting in October last year (I have only just found the vid). It shows the split of land between BLM, USFS, and pivately held., and loosely talks of the process.
https://youtu.be/VDxmgWid0fQ
As the only mining project mentioned in Idaho it does show the importance of Empire, and getting it back up and running.
The presenter did mention the await the Plan of Operation (which we know), and that after they have accepted the plan, there would be a period of public consultation. I understand that this is a minimum of 30 days (but no maximum stated in the CFR regulations).
The end of '23 or early '24 is still achieveable anyway. Finance in the next few weeks will move us along nicely.
My comfort level is as high as ever.
The company may have been quiet, but they have been busy. Everything from bond negotiation, state-level engagement in Idaho, ATS, public relations, Red Star drilling, prep for Navarre, recruitment, and no doubt a degree of initial redesign for the facilities based on initial ATS feedback.
We are about to go from 0-100 with news flow, and each RNS should be a big one.
The likely order (IMO) being Finance > ATS > Red Star / sulphide results > a left field announcement (M&A somewhere?) > Pit design > Permit amendment for ATS > Navarre drilling commencement and results > Pre-Permit Activity at Empire > Permit approval > initial production.
This should all be within the next 12 months.
If this isn’t £1.20+ by Christmas I’d be gobsmacked.
Stan.
The Company does seem upbeat on the finance. Paul has stated expectation of completion on here, Telegram, Twitter, and in the Proactive presentation, and even Ryan (who is notoriously cautious) mentioning it in the BlytheRay interview.
They must have a degree of confidence that it is imminent.
The new figure of $80m may be required for a number of reasons. It's possible the project startup costs have increased by 25% (everything has!), and so requires additoinal funds, but it could also be that they have a curveball they are about to throw us. My guess is a little of A, and a little of B.
As to what that curveball may be, I'm reading between the lines and probably coming to the wrong conclusion, but wouldn't be surprised to see it used for some opportunistic M&A....
Stan.
I agree, I hope it's not the full amount, and if it is then there's no early interest payment attached.
I just wanted to set expectation that it might nt be the full amount., and people freak out that it's only part of the funding required.
As for "have they done a deal....", I am of the opinion that this is indeed in the plans, and it could be something quite left-field.
It's a relief to see the share price rising again, and some excitement retruning to the forums.
We may just need to temper expecatation a little though. While Pants / RightOn posted that the Book Build is complete, this doesn't neccessarily mean it is for the full $80m.
Richard has previously spoke about tranches of bond, so it is possible that we may only get an initial $20m away, and complete the rest later this year. That's not to say $80m won't be complete in one go, but there;s a chance it won't.
Either way, once we get tranche 1 out of the way this will give confidence to future bond subscribers to take up subsequent releases.
I'm hoping February sees us returning to all-time high's as a minimum.
Stan.
Paul is presenting the PXC proposition to Proactive Investor in London tonight.
I’m hoping that will have an impact on the share price over the next few days, too.
Looking forward to watching the recording of it in the next few days.
It has also been indicated that a more general market update is due imminently, which will hopefully contain a few nuggets of new information.
I’m with you, Sparky. I think £1.50 within 12 months is certainly achievable.
Finance and Permitting are the obvious drivers of this, but a rising copper price, Red Star, Navarre, plus a few other left-field events (M&A, China, Green agenda) could see us comfortably in the £1 range.
To think that we sat comfortably in the 50-60p range without any of this news shows just how ludicrously under-valued we are right now.
Finance should get us back to the 60’s, and permitting into the £’s.
We just need to give the team time to get the ducks in a row.
To be fair, I heard similar back in October.
Not sure why but something caused a delay, however by all available info it is still on course for the cornerstone investor to sign up, then others will follow.
As PI’s we are desperate for the sign-off, but the company is in no rush to get everything in place.
They are being very methodical with the approach and we just need to trust them to steer us to production.
Marcus is a very well-connected person, and I believe that he is bringing a number of people to the table.
We just need patience. Todays RNS has reinforced how exciting Empire is from a geological perspective. Once the funds are in place then the fireworks will begin.
Shares are very tightly held, and it won’t be easy to get in when all pieces start to fall into place.
Stan.
Hi EnglishPatient,
Your point about “If the case was so strong, financiers would be queuing up as they are elsewhere”.
I agree it’s frustrating that finance hasn’t yet arrived, but it now seems any potential backers are waiting on the outcome of the ATS evaluation.
This goes against the Chairman’s “update you in the coming weeks”, but I believe any bond backer would want to know which project is being invested in before subscribing.
This likely means waiting until Q2 for ink on paper, but we should know sooner about the ATS evaluation.
I completely disagree that this is equivalent to punting on a horse though. In fact it’s the opposite. PXC are putting in the groundwork to guarantee you’re backing a winner. The difference being how many furlongs it wins by, and that is determined by ATS or Sulphuric Acid extraction.
Our time will come, as as Sparky mentioned, the company, via Investor Relations, have indicated that 2023 should be transformational.
I wished it had come this year, but we do need to cut them some slack for slipped timelines. I think the delay could turn out to be more profitable for us all.
Stan.
I think we all agree that RNS is the preferred way forward, and such opinion has been made to the Board and IR.
But in the absence of such, or until the Board change their approach, I’d rather have access to as many information sources as possible, rather than fewer.
I don’t think you can lump all of telegram into the same pot, Trek. Each thread is different, and the PXC chat is exceptionally well run with courteous posts and sensible debate.
As a highly respected poster your views would enrich that further, for sure. Please consider joining.
Stan.
I take your point, GST255.
That said, in the Sept 29th interims, the chairman did state: “We have also used this hiatus in what we still believe to be a long-term bull market in copper and other critical metals, to optimise our mining and processing plans”.
Whole not explicitly stating “delay”, it was clear from this that ATS would refine the process and therefore the permit.
That said, prior to this I did have to do my own research to understand where we were with permitting. FWIW, the info is available on the BLM website.
The delay was also discussed after the shareholder lunch in the meeting notes.
But I fully agree comms and clarity need to be better, and I’ve voiced such.
What I don’t understand is why it’s all blowing up now when it’s been discussed weeks / months ago.
The company should take responsibility for a lack of clarity, but in truth nothing has changed in the last weeks, and we now need to wait for finance and ATS testing.