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Hi Skyumpie,

Based on last weeks RNS I think it’s a fair assumption to expect financing news next. The original finance deal on the table would likely have concluded by now, so the timing depends on what the other two banks offer. Either way, I’d expect this to be finalised by the start of March.
That then takes us towards Q2 and the feasibility Study being released.

Following those two events, take your pick from permitting, NC drilling commencement (and associated results), sulphide drilling, or any number of left-field JV’s, or staking extensions.

Either way, yes, I see 50p as the bottom too. I’m surprised that we’ve even found ourselves hanging around these levels with the imminent financing.

I’m guessing it’s White Knob and Horseshoe magnetics.
Material news for the long term, but less impactful in the immediate.

Just a postulation, but we know that financing would be transformational, and likely propel the share price to £1+, possibly £1.50 on decent terms with no dilution.

What if someone like Rio Tinto came in now with a $500m (£2.85) offer for the whole portfolio?
It seems a leap to pay 5x premium on today’s price, but far less of a premium once we are fully funded.
Is it such a leap? I’d say they would be getting a bargain for such a price.

I know that many of us see value far higher than that (£5-7 in maybe 4 years), but a more than reasonable offer for the entire assets, including the Cobalt, Silver, Navarre Gold, and the Sulphides?

I think there’s a reason that we have Henry Kenyon Slaney on the advisory board…

Is it better for a big dog to make the move now, before we get financially set up, and thus a higher company value?

Hi EnglishPatient.

I don’t understand the “losing patience” line.
The only thing that’s delayed is the Navarre surveys. The plan is, and for a long time has been, to begin mining at the end of this year. That gives almost 11 months to get a number of ducks in line.
Richard Wilkins has suggested finance should be sorted by the summer (May at the very earliest), and the permit on Empire is following the natural review process, and has 6 months to run on the consultation period.
I’ll reiterate, Empire is still on track based on the Company’s stated timelines.

As for the share price, Phoenix isn’t the only one getting battered right now. US Fed rates, 10k Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Boris troubles, all contribute to a nervousness in the markets. Everything from Tech, Mining and Crypto has took a beating lately.

Phoenix is as solid as when you first invested. Now isn’t the time to wobble, and it can easily rise as fast as it has fallen.
A great resource, a great board, and the right time and place. Give it a month and everything should hopefully look very different.

I don’t quite understand where the grey cloud has come from over the last few weeks.
Nothing has changed with the company, nothing has changed with the metals outlook, and nothing has been announced regarding the project(s).

I guess the price went up to 80p too fast, and has dropped back today without much reasoning too, and I agree that it’s hard to put a value on the company right now while we sit and wait, but there’s nothing to cause concern with the investment.
Phoenix is not a get rich quick share. It’s a medium / long term play where value could be in the billions. We just need to hold tight, wait for the assays, the finance, and (hopefully) the permits, and then congratulate ourselves on being magnificent investors.

Not nice to see a drop in price, but it’s just background noise if you believe in the journey we are on.

I agree, Westway. Finance should be easy once permitting is approved. This should also be the trigger for a major share price re-rate.
I'm not sure any more assurances can be given other than what is in the public domain.
The Baseline studies indicated no material impact on wildlife (https://www.investegate.co.uk/phoenix-copper-ltd/rns/completion-of-environmental-studies-at-empire-mine/202002120700056844C/),

and every step is being taken to mitigate other environmental impacts (https://phoenixcopperlimited.com/ESG-Environmental-Responsibility).

From a community perspective, Phoenix is well-supported in the local community, despite a few negative voices (which generally are louder than those that support the project). Ryan and the team are engaging with the local community to minimise the impact of the project, and are holding a number of Town Hall meetings to attempt to allay fears. There will always be some people who will be against this no matter what is said, but I am confident that these objections will not impede the timeline or project in any material way.

This is now just a waiting game while the permitting process follows the natural course of review and consultation.

Hi Richard08,

No thoughts needed, only facts!
The $52m has not been raised. Phoenix has stated that there’s no need to raise it yet as the bulk of the funds would not be needed until later into this year. Once the Plan Of Operation is in place and approved the Company will then finalise the debt financing.
Richard Wilkins has indicated that this should be around May time.

Advanced discussions have taken place with a number of possible suitors, and as M.E.J said in a recent webinar, “financing no longer keeps me awake at night…”

I’d also be happy with the GeoMag survey arriving as an early Christmas present. It’s long overdue now, and could give us a nice boost going into the New Year.

Admittedly it’s not the best environment for good news to land, but we do seem to have lost some of the positivity and momentum that should have been generated over the summer period.

https://youtu.be/0DzeJ-uqUvs

I believe today is the last opportunity to get in here (or top up) in the 60's.
We know 100% that the Red Star EM report is now in, and no doubt Ryan is currently writing the RNS after interpreting the results.
Red Star is currently based / valued on the understanding of a 350m area, but I believe that the EM Survey will confirm that there are Magnetite seams extending all the way to White Knob, and maybe even further to Windy Devil. For those not familiar with the lay of the land, that is pushing close to 3km. Let's say conservatively 7 times greater than just the known Red Star area. 7 times!
Indiactions from the geologists is this isn't a continuous seam, probably multiple, parallel seams, and I believe Ryna has commented that it's a complicated and twisted structure so not easy to follow, however, the sheer concept of this reaching up to Windy Devil is hugely exciting.

The let's look at the Twitter activity recently, with the Company posting about the Hardman valuation from July last year (31p valuation at $19/oz on known Red Star plot). This tweet was likely put out AFTER receiving the EM survey. My thinking is this is laying the groundwork for quite a markup from the initial results.
Even if we say the seam is 2.5x longer than the Hardman valuation was based on, and with Silver currently at $23 (which Hardman attribute an extra 24p against), the RS->WD silver could be considered to be around 137p (31p + 24+ x 2.5). And remember that the top of Windy Devil is 3km away, so 7x not 2.5x).

I do recommend that if you have the time, read the report from November 2020 for RS, where it talks about high grades found.

Top this off with the ADR program just days away (expecting this next week too), and then Navarre Creek (which could be, and may eventually be, a company in it's own right), and the Sulphides, I can't see 60p range being around for many more days at all.

Have a great weekend, all. The next few weeks should be quite exciting.

“ The BOD needs to release some results…”

Disco, should we write to them and ask them to make up some news?
The nature of ‘results’ is ‘when we have the answers’.

The company is still waiting on the survey’s to come back, and at the last report this should hopefully be next week. They can’t magic them out of thin air. They come when they come, but I also expect them to start coming thick and fast imminently.

As reported from the shareholder lunch yesterday (check out ADVFN or Telegram if you haven’t already), both the board, and seemingly the analysts, are very excited by what they have seen on site. I’m hoping the news will be transformative.

Sparky:
''For clarification I probably own more shares that all you put together. I have not sold a single one. A very costly strategy!!''

Unless you’re Martin Hughes, that’s a very silly thing to say!
It’s great to know that you’re a serious investor in PXC, along with a few more of us on here.
The share price movement has been disappointing, but let’s refrain from attacks on the BoD. They are doing a fantastic job, and nothing they have done so far has justified the recent drop.

Sit tight, we’ll all be ok in a few weeks.

I think for the open pit, debt financing will be more than sufficient, and we know the economics of Empire mean FCF will be substantial, allowing other projects to be potentially fast-tracked without further shares being needed to be issued.

But I agree that there may be situations where it could be in the company (and our) interest to issue further shares to extend the projects.

Take an example, just for illustration, that the Sulphides hold indicated resources worth £xB (and tens of billions is not out of the realms of possibility) but need £yB to build the infrastructure and run the project (and mining the Sulphides will be VERY costly - in reality I don’t see PXC being in existence at this point, but this is an illustrative scenario). We could raise part debt, but would need to issue more shares to cover our entry ticket to the debt.
I would be happy to see more shares issued in order to add Billions to the balance sheet.

We don’t yet know exactly what exists within the various projects / properties, and substantial funds could be needed to get to it all. If shareholder contribution is needed then I think that would be a sensible avenue to take.

All hypothetical, but just to reinforce the Never Say Never position on equity raises.
Right now it’s not needed, but the Phoenix is rising, and about to reveal some of the jewels that lie below.

Hi ToS,

Answering the question on BNY buying ADR’s, RightOn provided this answer last week:

“…concerning how the ADR programme will work in practise. BNY (Bank of New York) are not going to go out on their own initiative to buy any shares. Their role is to create ADR’s from shares deposited with them from US based broker dealers buying on behalf of their customers. So, the programme will driven by investors going to their broker/dealer, who then go to BNY, who then and only then buy sufficient shares to create the ADR. BNY are establishing and administering the programme, and to repeat, this will not be the BNY buying the shares in anticipation”

Hope this helps.

I’m very excited, mate.
I’m hoping that the next few news releases will see us leave the sub-£1 range forever.
I’m anticipating Red Star Magnetite to stretch at least 1.5km (5x more than recorded up to now), and although it’s expected to present a complex, twisted structure, it’s value alone should be multiples of today’s share price.

Then there’s Navarre, which we can expect to have stellar magnetic results given the extended land we have staked.

It’s hard not to get too carried away with dreaming of what will be, but with everything we expect to be revealed, I think Richard’s anticipation of £1B company could be very conservative.

Hi Richy,

You’re right, although a higher Copper price doesn’t ordinarily translate to faster payback. Mathematically yes, we could, although with the potential for Red Star to come online at a similar time to Empire (the next few weeks should give more clarity on this) I fully expect the company to direct the money to funding the RS startup, and slowly repay down the debt over x more years.

Money is cheap right now. And imagine the FCF from both Empire and Red Star in (approx) 2024?
I’d rather the debt repayment is stretched out, and the (some of the) much-discussed first dividend is kept back to accelerate the development and reap the rewards in future years.

But you’re 100% correct that conceivably we could repay quickly. I guess it comes down to the terms of the debt financing.
Either way, I’m massively excited for the future, and have increased my holding accordingly.

Spotty, that's just a silly statement to make.
Sure, you may actually get a sub-2p buy in, as the price is dropping on small investor boredom and sentiment, but 2p is certainly not expensive. Even Eclipse at the initial 6k oz is worth more than the current markey cap, and I think we all know that Menzies is going to be the more impressive project.

On fair value Empire should be at least 3-4p right now (minimum), and it is only due to lack of investor relations that it has been allowed to drop this low.

I have been in a number of shares where this has happened, and it's mainly down to lack of PR experience from the management teams. The ones that turn it around are often the ones that listen to the investor-base. The ones that fail are the ones that think they know PI's better than the PI's.

Empire is not yet big enough to appeal to HNWI's or investment funds, and so messages and communication should be tailored to the small guys like us, and keep us excited in the project. So far they have failed in this mission with subdued statements to quite positive news.

2p is not expensive for where we are, but we need an articulate message from the company to detail exactly why this is the case.

StanUK.

I just took a look at the WSBN RNS, and you’re right about the importance of GeoChem. It will hopefully assist us (EEE, but of course WSBN as well) to put the drill in the right place.

Coming back to PR, this thread demonstrates both (a) that the company has always been terrible at writing RNS’s, and has hidden material information right at the bottom of a lengthy release, and (b) they are even worse at following positive news with more possible media updates.

We should be shouting about the drill starting to turn again in the next 2 weeks, at a property in the same postcode as some major gold finds.
Instead we see them putting out lame tweets with pointless info.

I don’t buy that this will start up in September because of holidays. Our target audience isn’t the City or large investors. They should be appealing to the average investor who is swayed by CEO positivity and outlandish statements (whether this makes for sensible investing is another story). Bottom line is we need to be loved to be invested in. Right now we’re getting nothing to fall in love with.

I don’t want to make it personal, but it’s time for SB to step up to the plate, as up to now he’s nowhere to be seen.

It was commented that no drilling has been announced for Menzies. This isn’t correct. According to the last RNS:

“…Geochemical mapping ahead of a planned RC drilling campaign expected to commence in August”.

So we should start to see some action on Menzies within the next few weeks.
That said, the Company is very quiet on the PR front, and timelines do slip, but it’s not correct to say there’s nothing planned for Menzies.

On the communication front, I fully agree that it has been dreadful. Shaun Bunn has been less than impressive since coming in, and although Mike was often reserved in his enthusiasm at least he was happy to engage with the media.
The recent tweets have been amateur and pointless, and the lack of a follow-up to explain the RNS was a wasted opportunity.
Lack of media momentum is killing the share price, and the wider enthusiasm for the company. Money has simply moved on to more exciting plays.

Hi Timmomo,

BNY haven’t yet taken a position.
If you scroll down to RightOn’s post from this morning, his words are direct from our CFO, Richard Wilkins, confirming exactly this.

This makes it all the more exciting, knowing that before September the need to come to market to pick up shares.

StanUK.