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I agree Sparky, this is overdone and slightly irational today. The update gave nothing new other than saying that NIU collaboration continues, and that additional finance is in discussion.

Richard stated in the video that "M&A may or may not be happening", and today we hear that addiiotnal financing is being discussed and there's a fair chance of it completing.

Put that together with the radio silence, the lack of a new website, and the possibly that NIU's money is also being used for something other than Empire (or in addition to Empire), and we've got ourselves the possibility of a much larger development in play.

We all have our own risk profiles. But I'd hate to see someone lose out at these levels only for game changing news to drop at some point in the future.

I honestly don't think NIU is the only party willing to take up bonds for a near-term producer in USA.

But I also agree that it's still a sit and wait period.

Any whiff of finance landding and this should easily get back to pre-interims, so an easy 50%.

With the full finance in the bank then the sky really can be the limit, especially if there is any substance to the M&A rumours.

It has been a very frustrating year so far, but the tide can turn quickly if everything does fall into place.

I guess we can all mess about with ChatGPT while we wait:

A phoenix rises, with lots on store,

With wings of finance, the share price will soar.

The winds of fortune soon to shift,

As plans align and spirits lift.

Beneath the earth, where treasures hide,

A mining venture deep inside.

Sulphides waiting to unfold,

A great bonus, rich with gold.

In just 18 short months, they say,

Production dawns, a brighter day.

The Phoenix glows, its path defined—

A future forged from what we mine.

The "3 weeks" comment did cause some issues, and got the company in hot water with the regulators.

But here's the silver lining to that. The 3 weeks comment was made in expectation of NIU signing on a promised date, but for various reasons this was held up by Cevdet Caner. It did happen eventually. We were working to NIU time, and not RW time.

It's going to be the same with the $5m and $20m. Whether it's flexing, due process, or other negotiations, NIU will deliver and are fully supportive of the company. As Roymunna posted below, it's not in their interest not to comply with their contractual obligations. I'm in no doubt that they've got not claim to Empire for only a $5m initial drawdown of the bonds, so right now they only have 33m shares that are worth around the same as they have handed over in bond payments, and much less if they don't pay up.

The next steps are likely to be receipt of tranches 2&3 ($5m and $20m), equipment purchase and groundworks at Empire, PFS/Financial analysis, broker notes, Permit application / Plan of Operation (all these before the end of summer), pit contruction (end of this year and all of next), tranches 4&5 (2x $25m) during 2025, then permit approval.

The permit approval is the only unknown timeframe, but 12-18 months from submission would be a sensible guess, dependant on whether we need an ES or EIS as part of the NEPA process.

The curveball, as ITD999 suggests, is M&A. Caner did mention supporting inorganic growth at the AGM, so this indicates that at least conversations are being had on the subject. We could find ourselves becoming a producer sooner than we think, and create some new synergies along the way.

The focus is on the open pit at Empire right now, but that's just the starter. The main course is going to be much more delicious, and the cherry on the dessert could be a nice takeover by a mid-tier or major within 4-5 years.

Nobody knows what price that would be at, but you can safely bet it won't be 25p a share....

It was much more than just a brand name.

Cevdet Caner spoke about his intentions for building a critical metals portfolio, throwing his support behind the management team, and building western “champions” to counter the Chinese dominance.

A number of people looked into the whites of his eyes, and came away with the view that he’s in this for the long haul rather than a short term flip.

His comment of “supporting the company in strategic investments” was intriguing, and most people presumed this meant M&A for PXC…

Presuming the bond terms are as previously stated, it would now be paying a coupon of 10.45%. Not a bad return.

It means a coupon payment of $8m for us, but much-improved revenue.

I think Paul has previously stated that the bondholder gets around 20% of the upside in copper price, and we get 80%. So long may it continue to rise.

The 12% grades were from the sulphides.

That's all still there, but we will start simply and cheaply with the oxides in the open pit, and then use the profits from that to fund the sulphide exploration.

I think InTooDeep’s post is more likely, Bankrupty.

Bonds first, then PFS. The money will then allow us to purchase more secondhand equipment that will reduce the capex within the PFS.

The ball mill purchases are complete and they will arrive onsite during the summer, once to groundwork is finished (it’s still snowy on Mackay Peak).

The PFS is all but done, but likely being held back for additional purchases once we’ve got the cash in the bank.

Nearly there. As Paul stated on Telegram, this should be a very exciting month.

That’s a fair and reasonable view, Andrew.

Although my view is ‘when’ the bonds complete…

I think things will start to get exciting as we enter Q2.

I don’t understand why people look at this as binary or a coin toss. If the bonds get sorted then there’s project finance, or other sources of money.

But the company have said on multiple occasions via RNS that they are confident the bonds will be completed, and the warrant extension is an indication they are (very) close.

If you believe it will happen then this is possibly the last golden opportunity to take advantage of a low share price.

If bond news comes out then this will 5x pretty quickly.

If it doesn’t, then we stay in this range until another financing plan is implemented.

My money is on the bonds, and soon.

I agree that the bonds are close. There seems to be a degree of confidence in securing at least $25m as an initial tranche.

I’m not sure we will end up with 150m shares though. The bondholder is likely going to want a slice of equity, so I’d guess at least 15-20m in warrants will be issued.

But still, if we get through this with another 10% dilution then I’d say that’s successful.

All info on processing and economics should be available early Q2.

Anything before then is guesswork.

Regarding ball mills, I'm not sure gigantic is the right word for them.

They are large(ish), sure, and will take a bit of logistics to move them both, but by no means gigantic.

Why 2? - I'm guessing one for main production, the other for backup and/or spares, We certainly don't need 2 operational at the side of the pit. As Rain says (welcome back under the new moniker, btw), it's only a small starter pit.

Hopefully still profitable enough for us to make a decent return here, regardless. We should find out more once the PFS comes out in early Q2.

I just want to see the bonds get completed, then everything else can follow.

Because not everybody in life is selfish.

It’s not always about “what’s in it for me”. Some people truly want to help others. Want us all to win. Want to share gathered information in the hope that it’s not only me that benefits from this, and there’s a chance we can all improve our lives by sharing.

I hope I’m not alone in this thinking.

But if you take satisfaction from profiting yourself from info, go ahead. Good luck.

Personally, I think we’ll get news on the refinancing in the next 48 hours, and the bond completion won’t be far behind.

Personally, I hope we all do well from this investment. It’s been a long, hard slog, but I genuinely think the rainbow isn’t far away.

I get what you’re saying, Boon (it’s been said a few times now!). I would agree that so far timelines have been late / wrong, but the overall plan is still in play.

Don’t get me wrong, the wait is highly frustrating and I’m disappointed with how the PXC team have handled things, but this will happen, and it will happen with bonds and without conversion.

My conviction is based on research, that’s all I’ll say.

I don’t have any personal relationships with the board (although I have spoken to them on the phone occasionally), I’ve not attended any lunches, I don’t have any insider info.

You believe Riverfort will convert, I believe they won’t.

I hope that once the loan is rearranged that we can move on and focus on a few more positives in the project.

I’m pretty sure the company is aware of that, Boonboon!

Conversion won’t happen, and the loan will likely be extended, increased, and on new (better) terms.

Conversely, with news this will go higher and higher.

From an investor relationship perspective I agree it’s not been handled well, but if they really do manage to navigate this stage of development with an ongoing friendly relationship with Riverfort (as is repeatedly stated), less than 180m shares in issue, funded development through the bonds and a clear path to revenue, then I think we will all come out of this in profit.

Riverfort is the obvious fear right now. But if that matter is put to bed over the next few weeks then I’m hoping to see a shift in sentiment. News of purchased equipment should also settle a few nerves.

I remain convinced that the bond will complete.

These are my thoughts too, Andrew.

I agree it was a panic move.

It seems to me like they have a firm conviction of bond completion, but the timeline has slipped. It was clear from the couple of short term Riverfort extensions that they truly expected something to land.

Whether this is positive or negative is for each of us to decide.

They anticipated having the cash now, and appear to be in a rush to secure the machinery. It must represent a good deal for us in capex savings for them to have made this painful placing.

There lots of hope’s and maybe’s in this reply. I don’t know what the truth is. But for me, the signs are there that the bond is close, and they genuinely thought we would have had it done by now.