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So the news today is that the bond process has moved forward to the point where the paperwork is now all in place, awaiting funds, and to avoid brinkmanship the Riverfort terms are being extended, with additional working capital in case the closing stages take slightly longer (yes, I know, stretched timelines are a common theme for us).
The board remain confident.
I reiterate my point from yesterday. What if we are just one cog in a bigger plan for the bondholder, and he is waiting for a few other pieces to fall into place before completing with Phoenix, and these pieces are taking longer than expected?
But again, what do I know....
I think that PXC was wrong not to put out an update after 2nd Jan. It's the lack of an update that has caused people to panic and sell, as there is uncertainty of where we are now at.
As has been posted on Telegram, the company will now look into putting out an update. Hopefully this will settle some nerves (if they do decide to update us).
Regarding the financing, what if we were part of a bigger picture? Maybe one cog in the cornerstone investors plans, waiting for a few other pieces of the jigsaw to drop into place? This could explain the confidence that the directors have shown, confident that the money is there, but not yet complete as the investor needs to get everything else lined up first?
I don't detect a mad scramble from the tone of their posts, and RightOn also seems confident, and we know that he is close to some of the team. The news blackout is annoying, but I do believe we are in the closing stages of what will be a transformational step for the company.
But what do I know.
I think the directors always give out dates in the best of faith, but yes, it is now time for actions and not words.
They were possibly too optimistic with the 2 week extension, and have learned their lesson and now been more cautious by extending to January.
There is clearly more than just a promise of completion on the table and we really are almost there, and I would be surprised if this isn't all in place by early next week.
We were. But now you can choose to either look back, or look forward.
Monday should give us a clear indication of whether “imminent financing” is a few days, a few weeks, or a few months away.
I’m going with days.
E.P,
There are offers on the table, ready to go. I'd guess that these are more traditional financing arrangements.
Then there are the deal(s) that we really want, this is the bnd financing ++.
There are pro's and cons to each proposal (as a guess these could be: staged drawdown vs all up front, just cash vs other beneficial aspects to the project, western vs non-western investors, onerous terms vs bond terms).
This is why I wrote earlier that I would rather hold on for a short while longer rather than take the first offer, just to satisfy the desire of a few shareholders.
It's clear that our visitor to Mackay offers something the other offers don't. Hpefully it will be worth the wait.
Quite the contrary, Fallingknife.
I want finance on the best terms possible, not at the earliest opportunity.
Yes, this has taken way longer than any of us, the PXC team included, wanted it to take.
But who was in Mackay a few weeks ago?
Why only extend by 2 weeks?
Why are the BoD showing so much confidence?
If Riverfort gets rolled by another week, then that's what it takes to get this bond deal over the line. But I am confident that the completion of financing is only days away.
I'll say this.
We aren't looking for an $80m mortgage to by a house. It does take time.
Possibly, we aren't just looking for $80m for Empire alone.
There are likely other moving parts to this that add additional value to us all.
I'm sure that the investors we are talking to are serious heavyweights, and not time wasters.
It will get done. Very soon.
Stan.
I know it’s easy for me to say, but look, finance is coming. Don’t get hung up on Monday, Wednesday, or Friday. If it doesn’t get done by the 8th, don’t panic.
The share price may go down in the very short-term, but boy, will it shoot back up once the bond subscription is finalised.
There is so much going on in the background, far more than just money, and I’d suggest just trusting the board to get this over the line on the best terms for all of us, and set us on a path of success not just for Empire, but the wider Empire system.
There have been enough hints dropped by people to be comfortable of where we are heading.
Trek has suggested 800p. That may be a few years away yet. 500p has always been my target.
Wherever you choose to get off this ride, the exit should be multiples of where we are today.
Stan.
I can’t see the finding RNS ever being a damp squib!
It really is a matter of how big the re-rate will be.
It probably will spike and fall back a little, but will trend in only one direction. There’s plenty of other news that should keep the momentum going.
Once firmly in production this could easily be paying dividends of 8-10p / share (+/- depending on warrants linked to the bond). That’s a decent 25% annual return for anyone buying in at these level.
Some people will obviously take profit, but long term this could be a cash cow.
I’m getting ahead I myself a little, but the roadmap to production should become clear within the next week or so.
Stan.
ButlerMan,
Due to the way economic models need to be issued for N43-101 regulations, you either have to use the "new" cost of equipment, or be in ownership of it already. With cash in the bank Ryan can then go and buy second-hand equipment which would have a significant impact of the new exonomic model.
So I would expect the bonds to be signed off, Ryan to do some shopping, then a complete model to be released.
I'm sure that Ryan already has equipment lined up, and then investors that visited Mackay last week would have been shown the model with the purchased equipment factored in.
It may even be that the investors are supplying some of the equiment themselves. Now there's a thought....
Stan.
I think it’s worth reading between the lines of RightOn’s post, and pay focus to his points 1, 3, and 5.
We should get some clarification of where we are this week with the Riverfort deadline approaching, maybe is won’t be the “we’ve got it!” News we want, but enough for us to be confident that “we really are about to get it”.
We all have down days, so I’ll retract my criticism, Bankrupty.
We’re all here to make money, whether that is through trading or investing, and it’s not my place to say how someone should achieve that.
But focussing on the company, look at the 3 questions I posed earlier. What’s going on in Mackay next week?
This is the final act in the financing. Richard has been vocal in stating that we’re almost there. The BoD are now heading to Idaho. The signs are there.
Caveat: this might not get done by the Riverfort deadline, and there may be a minor extension. Very minor. A few days or a week. Formalities, in my opinion. But we’re at the pointy end now, and the pencils are sharpened.
I’ve stated a few times that financing isn’t a concern, and I stand by that. December will see us all much more wealthy, and now is the time to lock in the positions.
I’m sure that Ryan has got more than just a few floatation tanks on his Christmas shopping list.
Stan.
Bankrupty, you're coming across as flaky at best, attention-seeking at worst.
Trade if you want to trade, but posting positive then negative sentiment to support your position is just desparate.
Here's something to ponder over the weekend:
What are the directors doing in Mackay next week?
Who are they meeting?
What will the other party offer us?
Intriguing, right? - I wouldn't sell your core holding just yet...
It's a fair question, Brazilbumbum.
There is obvioulsy nothing official on this, but based on what we know right now I think we are looking at late '24 or early '25.
The Flotation + ATS or SO4 decision is imminent, and this will then allow us to determine whetehr the processing plant can be built on our own land, or whether we need to use the BLM land. Indications are that it is likely to be on our own patented land. This is a big plus.
Once finance lands we can begin can begin construction of the facilities without needing to wait for permitting. This could be as early as December, but possibly into Spring next year. In the meantime the Plan of Operation will be amended and submitted for permit approval. Note that the approval will be only to store the tailings on public land, rather than construction of facilities, access roads etc. It should hopefully be a quick turnaround.
The authorities wil l likely conduct a site visit in late summer next year, and there is likely to be a period of public consultation, but there has been significant work already undertaken for local engagement and other ESG related activities.
So let's say approval will come in late '24. Witht he facilities hopefully constructed by then, we can begin production within a matter of weeks / few months. Hiring should already have been in place, infrastructure ready, spades purchased and buckets at the ready.
This all relies on finace dropping, but as I have previously posted, this does not concern me at all, and I expect good news to drop very soon.
Nice analysis, Trek.
I honestly would not worry about the finances.
There are at least 3 options on the table but the company is still favouring Plan A, but should that fail then B and C can be put in place.
Plan A delivers all the money from a single (or consortium) investor, and rumours point to this coming from the Middle East which is a region not always straight-forward to deal with, but the company’s confidence remains high for this to complete.
The other options on the table might not lend the full amount on one hit, but will allow construction to begin and close out the Riverfort loan.
It may frustrate people, but time is still on our side.
The Floatation+ATS decision will likely come in the next 6-8 weeks, and then we redesign the pit plans, update the Plan of Operation, and submit the permit. Only once the POO is complete can we start to build the mine, so we’ve still got at least 3-4 months to complete the financing.
This then gives 6 months of construction before the BLM are likely to be on the ground to conduct site visits, as Idaho winters are very harsh. So permit approval won’t come until at least H2-24.
But once the permit lands we can can hit the ground running as most construction will be complete or progressing well. This, of course, depends on whether we really can build the site on our own land via the floatation tanks, but the Company have indicated this is the case.
The last time I spoke to one of the directors I was told “the money will be there for when Ryan needs it”.
I honestly don’t think we need to worry about if the money will land, but just focus on the when, and from whom.
Stan.
It’s an interesting post, ITD.
I’ve added a reply to it over on ADVFN, but would say that it’s speculative at best, but would love it to be true!
I’d say the Bond is indeed very close, the M&A is a possibility but maybe not a priority, and ExGen and ATS is purely guesswork.
But lets see what the next few weeks hold.
Stan.
76p initial target is eminently possible on full bond subscription. Save for the permit, the bond is the key that unlocks the treasure chest.
The Annual Report is overdue, and I’m hopeful this is in expectation of at least part-finalising the subscription.
They should know enough about the ATS to give initial indication of efficacy now, and again, I believe the results will be positive, which should significantly increase annual revenues.
The company must be juggling a number of balls in less than perfect circumstances, but we are now firmly in the window of exciting and positive news flow.
I’m guessing Annual Report tomorrow or Thursday.
Stan.
I also picked up another 40k shares at around 22.75p.
I’m expecting the Year End report to come out around May 22nd, so maybe another week of the share price in the doldrums.
If so, I’d guess the AGM will be somewhere around 5-9th June. Hopefully it will be a celebration rather than a castigation.
Stan.
The investment case in copper is clear, and indeed I believe the same for Phoenix.
This article mentions the pressure on ESG, too, which highlights the significance of the DigBee ‘A’ rating the company has achieved.
Once finance drops the buying pressure here will be huge. The share price moves fast in both directions on very little trading, and the food will be blown off when investors scramble to pick up whatever stock is available, and there won’t be much.
With the copper shortage it’s not unrealistic to expect $4.80-5.00/lb in the coming months, which makes the bond very attractive and offer a rate of 10%+. I can’t see how this doesn’t attract investment.
Let’s hope news arrives soon, and we can put this daft share price behind us.
Stan.
I think we should give them the benefit of the doubt this side of the AGM.
If things aren’t in place by the end of May I agree it’s time to be concerned, but they have enough options on the table to get finance away. The bond is clearly the preferred route, but more traditional financing is also a possibility.
As for the silence, there’s not much they can say until financing is concluded. Once it is I expect the news floodgates to open.
Just a little more patience required.