Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
āWhat is HIR?ā
Itās a consequence of the āiā and āuā bring too close together on the keyboard.
PlantedBHA: ā Really old newsā.
Really? It happened this morning.
BuyInMay, thatās a dirty word around these parts!
It was the bondholders that ultimately brought down Xcite, but it was a combination of incompetence on Rupert Coleās part, plus the extraction of heavy oil in Bentley coupled with a crash in oil price.
Whalsay, the company set up by the bondholders, still havenāt managed to get Bentley underway.
We are different. Weāre a producer, bringing in good revenue, and in a far more stable financial position.
Although there is read-across to how the projects were established and run. Stephen Kew was the equivalent of Dr T (the brains of the outfit) and he resigned shortly before the companyās demise....
Maths,
It is perfectly realistic to believe we won't havw the cash to repay the bonds. I don't have the cash to repay my mortgage, but a steady income into my bank account can assure another mortgage company that I am sufficiently credit-worthy to take out a new loan to repay my existing one at the appropriate time.
We are not out of options. Should we not be bought-out over the coming years (I still suspect we will), then either the bonds can be renegotiated, or we can look to other areas of lending.
If I was sat in Mr Chaffe's chair, I would wait for the CPR to come in January, and then negotiate RBL based on the revised figures. We may only end up with 700mmbls (finger in the air, nobody shout me down), but it would be more than enough to take on Ā£500m to clear bonds and give sufficinet working capital going forward. This is just one option.
I'm hoping that by bond redemption date, we could have cash to settle at least half, leaving a much mroe managebale figure through alternative funding.
Sit back, don't panic. the finances are all under control.
As for the water, well, that's for another discussion.
The regulations state:
"The boundary [is] to be drawn in accordance with geological criteria alone so the field could be defined as a single geological petroleum structure."
A boundary "is taken as the maximum extent of all the hydrocarbons present, whether moveable or not, and regardless of whether the entire accumulation is in phase and/or pressure communication. "
The RNS states:
"proposed field determination area over local structural closure at the Lincoln discovery".
Did we hope for FD over a larger area of Lincoln, but the OGA have looked at the data and decided rather than a wider area, the presence of multiple fractures means FD is only given for a specific local fracture?
The JV now look at this and are weighing up the value of preceding?
I'm just throwing musings out there, and don't really have any knowldge in this particular area.
Maybe I totally misunderstood the RNS, but I interpreted it that OGA have determined a smaller field area than we hoped, and we are now in talks with Spirit on whether to proceed or not, as no doubt the prize is smaller than the JV hoped for.
Did anyone read it any differently?
Donāt think so, BigBear2.
Pelham are now below the notifiable level (3%), so no need to RNS any other activity unless they cross the 3% holding again.
It's good to see some proper discussion today regarding operations rather than daft share trade commentary.
I don't have in-depth knowledge of corporate finance, other than what has been learned from other shares I have held, but thought a topic on possible ways forward would add something to the board.
With increased production, we should ahve enough in the coffers to at least part-pay the bond, maybe leaving $100-150m outstanding.
With the CPR due fo release in early 2021, and with the expected downgrade in reserves (let's say 700m recoverable), could we then look to bank-backed RBL to cover the remaining bond (shaking that particular monkey form our back), and have enough working capital for further drills without giving too much away through farming out on Lancaster? Ā£500m RBL would then give a decent pot for future work, and although debt is debt, Ā£500m repaid per barrel produced, but unlocking a way forward for Lan/Fax woudl really seem like minimal debt in the long term?
Would a farm-out be preferable, rather than carrying the whole risk ourselves?
Either that, or sell up by December!
Not entirely.
Doesn't this mean they have just dropped below 3%, and can still have a potential 60m shares to dispose of?
I donāt think itās too bad.
Water from 6 is 11%, which is an increase, but now that the ESPās are commissioned this should hopefully stabilise.
Production is up by 2k bbl/d, 7z is back online.
From the Edison report of June it was clear that the CPR would reduce the P2 values. We just donāt know HOW material the decrease will be.
Does anyone know what was meant by the GWA statement? Has Field Determination been granted?
mjga786, surely your comment was not serious?
"SP now is below 6p, so even it goes to 0p or bust, loss for people would be less than 6p per share"
Hereās a question: If person A buy Ā£10k worth of shares at 50p, and Person B Ā£10k shares at 6p, and the company goes bust, who loses out more?
Hopefully the answer to that question will demonstrate the madness of your post.
The upside is indeed greater, but the downside risk is the same for all.
Hi Yobbo,
From an article earlier this year:
ā The JV is,
therefore, seeking a field determination at Lincoln to progress towards field
development incorporating a single well tie back to the Aoka Mizu of either the
Lincoln Crestal well or an alternative shallower producer.
Based on
existing consents, the Lincoln Crestal well is planned to be plugged and
abandoned later this year. The suspension consent, which sets the deadline for
this activity, has been extended from 22 June 2020 to 30 September 2020 due to
the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
This extension
also allows Hurricane to gather additional long-term pressure data, expected to
provide further insight into the dynamic behaviour of the Lincoln reservoir.
The Transocean Paul B. Loyd Jr. semi-submersible rig, which is still under contract with Hurricane, is currently stationed in the Cromarty Firth and is expected to carry out this activity, but it is noteworthy that the JV is looking into alternative rig options.ā
ADUK,
We both made an initial assessment regarding the application for Lincoln to presume this was for P&A. I believe this to still be true, however not a guaranteed outcome.
Please confirm I understand the sequence of events correctly:
8th June: Lincoln application for Well Intervention.
8th June: Trice āresignsā.
16th June: Edison report (Iām presuming compiled with direct input from HUR) suggests P&A not necessarily required if Field Determination from OAG is positive.
So uncovering the application moves us no further forward in our investigations. P&A possible, but OAG can still save the day.
To quote Edison: ā A response from the OGA for approval of field determination over the Lincoln structural closure is expected by the end of June 2020. If approved, and subject to further consents, it may not be necessary to P&A Lincoln Crestal, which could then be tied-back as a producer to the Aoka Mizu.ā
So itās still a waiting game, right?
This looks like a P&A then, and not the tie-back we were hoping for.
Unless Iām interpreting it wrong. Hopefully someone can see this as a positive application....?
"The min bid would be the highest sp over last 90 days."
Absolutely, BB2. There must be reason this has been held down (notwithstanding leaks regarding a total operational disaster).
I'm not saying this is the case, but holding this down to facility a cheap T/O offer wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility.
Kerogen are not sitting on a loss. They almost have free carry after selling down part of their holding last year.
A better question could maybe: would they be looking to take the whole company?
Dr Parsley has been added to the boord for a reason, and with his Geo background would be privy analyse every piece of sensitive data.
Maverick, there will be no general update at tomorrowās AGM, and no Q&A.
The notice indicated no business update, and that questions should be submitted by email, for response by email.
I guess itās possible there could be an operational update via RNS, but nothing presented by the board at the AGM. Itās nothing more than a formal process that must be done, to vote on resolutions and keep the board at the feeding trough for another year.
A performance update will surely be due soon, but donāt expect the AGM to be that day. Only 2 shareholders are permitted to attend to fulfil the required regulations.
Guys, thereās a lot of talk about price movement pre/post AGM.
The AGM notice stated that there will be no questions, and no business update. It looks like nothing more than a formality that has to be done. Voting on resolutions only, with shareholders voting by proxy.
Any questions are to be submitted by email, or response by email.
I could have read it incorrectly, but there will be nothing material coming out of the AGM, and nothing to help move the price north.
A positive RNS, however....