I think InTooDeep’s post is more likely, Bankrupty.
Bonds first, then PFS. The money will then allow us to purchase more secondhand equipment that will reduce the capex within the PFS.
The ball mill purchases are complete and they will arrive onsite during the summer, once to groundwork is finished (it’s still snowy on Mackay Peak).
The PFS is all but done, but likely being held back for additional purchases once we’ve got the cash in the bank.
Nearly there. As Paul stated on Telegram, this should be a very exciting month.
I don’t understand why people look at this as binary or a coin toss. If the bonds get sorted then there’s project finance, or other sources of money.
But the company have said on multiple occasions via RNS that they are confident the bonds will be completed, and the warrant extension is an indication they are (very) close.
If you believe it will happen then this is possibly the last golden opportunity to take advantage of a low share price.
If bond news comes out then this will 5x pretty quickly.
If it doesn’t, then we stay in this range until another financing plan is implemented.
My money is on the bonds, and soon.
I agree that the bonds are close. There seems to be a degree of confidence in securing at least $25m as an initial tranche.
I’m not sure we will end up with 150m shares though. The bondholder is likely going to want a slice of equity, so I’d guess at least 15-20m in warrants will be issued.
But still, if we get through this with another 10% dilution then I’d say that’s successful.
Regarding ball mills, I'm not sure gigantic is the right word for them.
They are large(ish), sure, and will take a bit of logistics to move them both, but by no means gigantic.
Why 2? - I'm guessing one for main production, the other for backup and/or spares, We certainly don't need 2 operational at the side of the pit. As Rain says (welcome back under the new moniker, btw), it's only a small starter pit.
Hopefully still profitable enough for us to make a decent return here, regardless. We should find out more once the PFS comes out in early Q2.
I just want to see the bonds get completed, then everything else can follow.
Because not everybody in life is selfish.
It’s not always about “what’s in it for me”. Some people truly want to help others. Want us all to win. Want to share gathered information in the hope that it’s not only me that benefits from this, and there’s a chance we can all improve our lives by sharing.
I hope I’m not alone in this thinking.
But if you take satisfaction from profiting yourself from info, go ahead. Good luck.
Personally, I think we’ll get news on the refinancing in the next 48 hours, and the bond completion won’t be far behind.
Personally, I hope we all do well from this investment. It’s been a long, hard slog, but I genuinely think the rainbow isn’t far away.
I get what you’re saying, Boon (it’s been said a few times now!). I would agree that so far timelines have been late / wrong, but the overall plan is still in play.
Don’t get me wrong, the wait is highly frustrating and I’m disappointed with how the PXC team have handled things, but this will happen, and it will happen with bonds and without conversion.
My conviction is based on research, that’s all I’ll say.
I don’t have any personal relationships with the board (although I have spoken to them on the phone occasionally), I’ve not attended any lunches, I don’t have any insider info.
You believe Riverfort will convert, I believe they won’t.
I hope that once the loan is rearranged that we can move on and focus on a few more positives in the project.
Conversely, with news this will go higher and higher.
From an investor relationship perspective I agree it’s not been handled well, but if they really do manage to navigate this stage of development with an ongoing friendly relationship with Riverfort (as is repeatedly stated), less than 180m shares in issue, funded development through the bonds and a clear path to revenue, then I think we will all come out of this in profit.
Riverfort is the obvious fear right now. But if that matter is put to bed over the next few weeks then I’m hoping to see a shift in sentiment. News of purchased equipment should also settle a few nerves.
I remain convinced that the bond will complete.
I agree it was a panic move.
It seems to me like they have a firm conviction of bond completion, but the timeline has slipped. It was clear from the couple of short term Riverfort extensions that they truly expected something to land.
Whether this is positive or negative is for each of us to decide.
They anticipated having the cash now, and appear to be in a rush to secure the machinery. It must represent a good deal for us in capex savings for them to have made this painful placing.
There lots of hope’s and maybe’s in this reply. I don’t know what the truth is. But for me, the signs are there that the bond is close, and they genuinely thought we would have had it done by now.
Hi, MC.
You asked for comment.
Honestly, it was a bit of a blow yesterday. Not so much that dilution happened, but the price it happened at. It could have happened at any point in the past at a more favourable level. It is only because of the company communications that we found ourselves in the teens, so it does feel a bit self-inflicted.
But it was only 18% dilution. Yes, it goes against everything they have openly promised, but as things have taken longer than expected they had to react. You could argue it’s poor planning, but it is what it is.
I’m not even against the board being able to buy in at these levels. I wish they commuted more money themselves though.
The majority of the money will be used for machinery procurement, which will likely save $4-5m on capex compared to new. This is just the start of the savings we can achieve on used vs new. I’m sure Ryan will be completing that next week, and I hope the company will announce it via RNS to give a bit of comfort that the money isn’t just to keep the lights on.
it comes at a big cost to us holders, but the money needed to come from somewhere.
On the bonds, this will get some scoffs, but the board remain convinced of their success, as do I. As stated last week by Paul, the due diligence team were on site and this has now concluded. It’s the final steps in getting this completed.
Yesterday wasn’t fun. But now it’s back to waiting for the news, with a slightly reduced holding in the company. Some would have lost faith and trust, and I understand that. But as Trek said, if (or when) the bonds are finalised everything will look very different.
I’m not a company cheerleader, and try to look at things in a balanced way. 18% dilution at 11.5p was a crappy move, but if it keeps the project moving forward then it’s a pill I can swallow.
I guess we’re all entitled to an opinion, EP. But I think you’d have to be the ultimate skeptic to think they will never mine.
Sure, many think it will be after massive dilution, but easily accessible copper with a low-cost startup, in a green economy, it’s always going to be mined.
I still expect minimally dilutive funding to land, in fact my conviction of this has never been higher.
It’s also funny you mention about someone buying other old mines, but I’ll say no more on that, and just encourage the same DYOR message.
I can understand people getting tired of the waiting, but once finance lands and the PFS is released (showing improved economics), permitting is the final major hurdle before production.
One of us will be wrong, anyway. Good luck with your investing decisions.
I can only reiterate my point from a day ago, don’t panic.
The positive in today’s RNS was that the metallurgy is now complete, the model is updated, and it’s now being formalised into the PFS and Plan of Operations. Once the bond completes this is the final step ahead of permitting.
It doesn’t really matter if the PFS is ready today or next month. So long as it is completed ahead of a summer environmental inspection then we are still largely on track (from the recent timeline revisions, anyway).
The situation is the same as yesterday. And the day before. We are waiting for finance.
And I know I’ve said it before, but I believe finance is closer than some people believe.
It seems we have another overreaction by the retail market.
Yes, it is another slipped timeline, but nothing has materially changed within the company.
Finance discussions are ongoing, and it was mentioned today that the cornerstone investors team is again in Mackay finalising their due diligence (posted on Telegram).
Metalurgy is all but complete, and the final report is being worked on. Indications are that the economics will be improved.
The terms of the Riverfort loan remain the same, and we have until March to settle this, or have it renegotiated, increased, and extended. I'm presuming the wait on this is due to the ongoing DD.
The wait is frustrating, but it doesn't justify a 12% drop.
All these are great points, Tiburn.
I also agree with the conclusion that the bond is coming!
Your points look at this from the Phoenix side, but it's "possible" that some of these apply to the cornerstone investor, too.
• The bondholder may have extensive experience in mining
• The bondholder may also have extensive finance expertise
• They may be interested in a strategy involving, but not solely linked to, Empire. Is this the reason for the slight delay?
• They may be interested in copper, as well as other battery metals in the portfolio
• They may want to develop their own local infrastructure
• They may be interested in what Phoenix can offer from a regional perspective
It's possible that this is about more than just bonds. People are saying "we only need one signature", but what if we need to wait for a few other pieces (not linked to us) to be completed before the curtain is pulled back and all is revealed?
Just an opinion, anyway.
Just a bit more patience. The overriding message is “stop panicking”.
There’s plenty going on behind the scenes, and I’m sure the story of the journey will be told once financing is complete.
The timeline is slightly out of our hands, but everything is under control.
Personally, I think the directors have been obsessed with the "no more dilution" route and it may have got in the way of more logical (or at least expedited) financing decisions.
That said, had the intitial group of investors they were talking to chosen to invest in the bond then this could have been wrapped up over a year ago. It seems we are now talking to the next set of investors, whoever they may be, and I get the feeling we are now very close and the board are much more optimistic.
If the bond remains on the stated terms then it is a good deal for us, and one I would be happy to have waited for.
I'm sure that as we move towards the sulphides and Navarre Creek that a JV partner is more likely to be brought in. For now, I'm happy to keep the majority of the Empire upside to ourselves.