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Forcella: “Confused to why NIU removed their EGM requisition?”

I think it’s because we don’t yet have the full picture, or the reasons why NIU failed to invest further. Was it Caner, or was the issue with RW and MEJ?

From the going concern statement:

“The Group is in advanced discussions with several existing and new potential investors to secure necessary financing for the development of the Empire open-pit mine. We expect to be able to raise necessary funds via equity, debt and/or convertible debt, which management believes is feasible based on investor discussions and, notwithstanding recent events, support from many of our existing shareholders.”

Could NIU have withdrawn the EGM resolutions because they are onboard, along with other shareholders (such as Hughes) to refinance the company?

Someone, somewhere, irrespective of cost to shareholders would fund this to production, so the chance of NIU claiming the asset with bond default is minimal, so is it better for them to be part of the solution or part of the problem?

Purely speculation, but their semi-annual bond payment is around $400k x 2. What if this was converted to equity at 1-2p? The upside potential for NIU is huge, it removes a liability, and if combined with other shareholder investment would provide working capital and enough to cover engineering and permit application.

I’d hate to see NIU profit out of misery, but if their control of the company isn’t significant then the money is as good as anyone else’s.

Just a thought. But they withdrew their EGM attack for a reason.

Stan.

It’s been a while since I last posted, but I have been invested here for 7 years, and continue to hold.

I genuinely believe there’s still a viable company and investment case here. Yes, the last few years have been a mess, but now that the cancer has been cut out it’s a chance for a new start.

The company still needs to navigate the NIU, Riverfort and Indigo situation, which will be expensive, but I believe it is achievable with the right team in place.

Over the next month or so I’d expect new personnel to join the company, likely a new CFO and Chairman, with remuneration linked to the success of the project. Hopefully these will be people with solid reputations. I’d also expect that some form of repayment will be agreed with the 2 thieves. Legal action benefits neither party, and if we can get a large chunk of what was taken it will extend the cash runway to at least the end of the year and cover the NIU bond obligations.

I’d also expect the NIU resolutions not to pass. Certainly not the board seat one anyway (the other 3 are sensible, but costly). The EGM will probably become the full AGM, which we need to hold within the next few months anyway.

On financing, who knows. The project is highly viable, it’s just that the people we had searching for the finance never came across as credible, and I’m hoping the new recruits bring that credibility back. For what it’s worth, I genuinely think Ryan is a man of integrity but was marginalised / over-powered by the swindlers. Now he has to step up to the plate and demonstrate he’s a worthy CEO.

Securing finance will come at a cost, no doubt. But even if we have a billion shares in issue via warrants attached to a bond financing / off-take / Royalty agreement (all supposition) the company would still be worth 10x where we are right now if the right team was in place and the project was fully funded and in production.

It’s a mess, but it’s salvageable. But now it’s time for the remaining team to show what they’re made of.

Andrew,

You have been to PXC AGM's, as have I.

You should therefore know that Ryan takes a very different approach to communication compared to Wilkins. He is very cautious in his wording even in person. I believe that this will the new norm in communications now, that only facts will be reported, and only when they happen.

The old guard has gone and we are now better for it. At least we will know where we stand now once the current situation is unravelled.

The LOI investor is still there, but there's clearly a mess that needs to be untangled first.

Ousting Marcus and Richard should have happened a long time ago. They have served only to drain the company of cash in return for empty promises.

While overdue, it’s good news that the remaining Board members are wrestling control of the company.

There’s going to be a short period of having to unpick the mess we’ve been left in, and then shake the vultures off. No doubt this will come at a price, but it’s survivable.

The company can then have a clean slate to progress the larger financing. It’s almost certain that previous finance discussions have fallen by the wayside because Wilkins and Edwards-Jones were perceived as untrustworthy sheisters.

Ryan McDermott comes across as different, and anyone that’s met him at AGM’s would say the same. It’s just not been his company to run all these years despite being CEO because everything went through Wilkins. He’s now the proper frontman.

They’ll be no more wild statements or speculation in RNS’s, which is why he likely didn’t mention the US investor today. It happens when it happens, and then we’ll be told.

There’s still a viable company here, and while we’re likely to suffer dilution to clear the vultures out, I’d expect a far more sensible finance package to be put in place and the bonds finally kicked to the curb.

It wouldn't be a surprise if Roulston and the PXC team have had conversations over financing.

The ExGen acquisition / merger completed at the end of December, so Roulston now has an official link to Phoenix.

As well as MTB, he's Managing Director of WestBay Capital, and getting funding away for PXC will have a direct benefit to all parties involved. It's ExGen's flagship properly (well, 20% of it anyway), and is the cornerstone strategy for MTB, ExG and PXC.

Maybe it just needed the acquisition to take place first before anything more formal could be put in motion?

Speculation of course, but why would Phoenix not look to WestBay for traditional funding if the bond is strugging to take off?

Roulston is CEO at MTB.

MTB and ExGen have agreed a merger a few months back, so it’s no surprise to see him joining the ExHen board.

Re-running the full Pre-Feasibility Study cashflow model using live spot prices (Au $4,440/oz, Ag $76/oz, Cu $5.88/lb) and keeping everything else exactly the same (mine plan, production schedule, capex, opex, royalties, taxes) materially changes the picture.

Figures were taken from Table 22-9 of the published PFS.

Original PFS used Cu $4.45/lb, Au $2,325/oz, Ag $27.25/oz):

• After-tax NPV(7.5%): $79m

• IRR: 47%

• LOM after-tax free cashflow: $132m

At today’s spot prices:

• After-tax NPV(7.5%): $250m

• After-tax IRR: 90%+

• Life-of-mine after-tax free cashflow: $380m

• Payback: inside Year 1 of operations (~9–10 months) because Yr1 throws off $86.6m after tax.

That uplift comes purely from revenue — no heroic assumptions, no cost cuts, no mine plan changes. Same open-pit, same 8-year mine life, same processing route, same capital intensity. The rising metal prices are all upside.

Investment for this surely must come.

The bond coupon would today be paying 12%, plus a bagful of warrants. I’d be comfortable with 100m shares, so roughly 33% of the company.

The upside for all of us would be huge at today’s prices.

As I posted a few days ago, funding and permit would (conservatively) move the market cap to around £160-170m.

Just consider the figures DP posted. The metals value has increased by $550m between the PFS publication and today. And the cash cost of production would only marginally have increased. That’s all upside.

There isn’t a better time for funding to come through, and over a very short timespan this could see 30-40p, and the potential long-term value could be considerably higher.

But as always, it’s about the financing. I’m optimistic that January will be the turning point in this saga.

With metals flying, at today’s copper price the proposed bond would be paying an 11.65% annual coupon.

Assuming that the copper price remains static and the bond is repaid after 7 years, that would give a bond investor (at $75m investment) $8.75m / pa, or $61m over the 7 years, with is roughly an 82% return.

Then assume a sweetener of 100m warrants )which I would not be against if it secured all funding). Let’s give them a stroke price of 5p.

You would assume that a fully funded, fully permitted project approaching production would give PXC a market cap in the region of £160-175m at today’s metal prices (I’d argue this is very low end).

So with 350m shares in issue, that would see a share price of 50p, and the investor would make an additional $56m on his investment (assuming disposal at 50p).

This bond, assuming all things stay static, would give gross returns of around $117m against an $80m total investment.

And for those buying at today’s price, a 20x return (and hopefully a small return regardless of when you joined this journey).

There’s certainly a disconnect somewhere here, but if the bondholder is genuine, honourable, and close to investing, 2026 could see bumper returns for new investors.

Come on, Mr US investor. Now’s the time.

The numbers make sense.

I can understand why the low market cap would put off some investors, but I think we all realise that PXC’s market value today is very much sentiment driven.

It’s priced for failure, but and whiff of good news, even $5m becoming available for permit application, and the MCap could be £25m overnight.

We’ve all seen over the years how quickly it rises and falls.

Personally-speaking, I’d be happy with $80m in the bank in exchange for the coupon and 130-150m warrants.

That’s 400m in issue, 25% of the company to the investor, and a sensible share price of around 30-35p.

That would hopefully be the last major raise that’s needed for quite some time, and will leave plenty of upside for us all if the adit reveals what the team believe is there.

That’s a deal that you’d think would interest a number of investors, surely?

The positive is clear. Fully funded production.

Landing $80m unlocks shareholder value. I’d expect a swift return to the teens, if not 20p+ once weaker holders are flushed out.

Part-funded (maybe $10m to complete engineering work, submit permit and enter the adit) would be a positive, too. I’d expect such news to take us back to 6-8p, and higher on permit approval.

The negative is no funding arriving. Death by a thousand placings, and a billion shares in issue.

But I see this as highly unlikely.

Someone will fund this on the right terms.

The question is whether this is the proposed bond, or an offtake agreement, or something else.

If we can get to production with 400m shares in issue then most shareholders should see a return on their investment, regardless of whatever price they bought in at.

Yes, just another CLN.

$1m can be converted at any time. That would hurt a bit at these levels, but Riverfort were causing pain too.

I believe the market has 2 fears with this. CLN’s aren’t great finance, and that the bond completion is further away than hoped.

But the company can’t wait around forever and watch Riverfort selling every day, so this was a prudent move to preserve a bit of cash.

Bond finance could complete at any point. Tomorrow, end of the year, or Jan. We just don’t know.

But even if we can get enough initial funding to submit the permit in the next 5-6 weeks and begin exploring the adit in Spring then it puts us in a different position entirely.

Today the company is priced for failure. The gamble is now, and has been for a while, whether finance will be forthcoming.

The re-financing was fairly neutral.

They’ve swapped a financing pan costing 15% p/a, for one paying 5%, so it saves $100k interest over the year.

But nobody likes to see CLN’s, so that’s probably why the market got spooked.

Riverfort had been constantly selling, so hopefully this now stops (although they hold around 5m shares still), but Indigo are also incentivised in the short term to keep the price low, but then benefit from it being higher (above 5p) to convert the rest of the loan into shares.

So it comes down to how friendly they are.

Getting bond financing complete, in whole or just part of it, changes the picture entirely, but it remains to be seen whether they can achieve this.

Noises about the US investor continue to be positive, but we need cash rather than good vibes.

It’s now priced for failure, but any sniff of positive developments and the upside could be huge.

Scott: “I hope you are correct but I'd suggest a more cautious tone”.

Fair enough. We all have our opinions, have been scarred by previous events. and each have determined the likelihood of success.

I don’t think there was anything contentious in my post below and the fact that free-float of shares in so low and shares held in so few hands means this could return to sensible levels if (see, cautious wording!) an agreement with an investor is completed.

BP, I don't think anyone outside of the negotiating teams can say for certain what the situation is with ExGen. Their recent agreement does add an additional level of complexity which may explain the protracted discussions. Scott’s told me to be more cautious, so i suppose we just need to hope that a sensible agreement can be reached between all parties involved.

No point getting into a back and forth. You've taken your position and I've taken mine. Best of luck to all of us, as we all deserve to be rewarded here.

I haven’t posted here lately, but have been a holder for 7 years.

It’s a key point you make, Isas. There are a number of long term investors that each hold a significant chunk of the company. I personally hold around 1%, and I know of other investors with a similar sized holding.

Together with the directors, Martin Hughes, NIU, and whatever Riverfort still hold, I’d say that 30 people hold >50% of the company.

The daily movements are smaller trades and impatient holders, and as we saw yesterday, probably a few gamblers looking for a short-term profit, but the free-float is minuscule.

When news drops (and I’m as certain as I can be that it will), this will move incredibly fast.

The portfolio is valuable, this is why we invested. We know finance unlocks this.

It may be taking longer than we hoped to conclude with the US-based investor, but we’re working to his timetable and not ours. I’m sure he’s got any number of deals ongoing at any one time, and it’s just about patience now.

Moving to a binding agreement will make all the difference. It will give us a name, and it gives some legal protection. I just hope this one is more watertight than the last!

Once we get cash in the bank and a permit application submitted we’ll be kicking ourselves for not buying more at these crazy-low prices.

Stan.

PXC is known for over-promising and under-delivering, but the chairman’s statement was made on the 16th June with a clear expectation of funding being completed within 2-3 weeks (“…commence drawdown on this additional funding later this month or early next”). I can’t imagine he wrote that without full expectation of it happening. It seems the Annual Results were held back as long as possible in the expectation of it concluding, too.

I fully believe this was a genuine statement based on the progress made with the investor and it’s only due to the other business transaction running over (per PdG) that this timeframe slipped. Such a statement would not have been approved by the nomad without evidence to back it up.

Assuming the other transaction is now complete, funding by the end of August is realistic, and in my opinion is expected.

McDermott seemed confident on the investor presentation and he’s famously cautious in his optimism.

Maybe it’s all a big ruse, but I don’t think it is.

It still leaves the Riverfort issue to be resolved shortly, but once $30m hits the bank account things should be much much rosy.

He’s an UHNWI, running his own investment fund.

I imagine a few important things get in the way of taking a flight to Idaho and a 3 hour drive from the airport to a hillside in Mackay.

It’s possible he’s taking his own investors there rather than as a solo trip.

But by the end of July none of this should matter. We’ve waited long enough, a couple more weeks won’t hurt.

It’s not pathetic. It’s just a case of timing and aligning diaries for the site visit.

Expectation was the new investor would fly out for this pre-AGM, but I hear that another of his deals got in the way and then a suitable June date couldn’t be found.

It’s just a diary clash. Nobody panic.

It’s been a long time since I posted on here, but have maintained my full holding throughout, and added considerably to my portfolio.

I don’t think you should expect too much from tomorrow. Primary goal is to get all resolutions passed, and hopefully there’s no games being played by NIU.

Resolution 6 then allows sufficient headroom to issues the shares needed for the new investor.

Get that done, and I’d expect financing to arrive within a couple of weeks max.

This is the cusp of a major turning point. A heavyweight investor with a position on the board, NIU’s influence diluted, a summer adit-drilling program, against a backdrop of rising copper prices and a pro-mining stance.

I truly believe getting the resolutions passed is the final hurdle. And if so, those taking a position today at 5p will look very smart in a few weeks time.

I’ve spoken to a number of people today, both close to the company and significant holders, and i’ve not detected any panic at all other than frustration at the protracted timelines. There remains a confidence that someone, somewhere will fund this.

10% of the company changed hands today and a number of people/parties were snapping up the shares. There’s going to be winners and losers after today’s action, but it’s good to see Trek pick up shares at this ridiculously low level. I know of a few people that have added to their considerable holding at all time lows.

I don’t think the company are going to be waiting around for NIU and there’s going to be alternative plans in place, and If finance drops at any point over the next few weeks this will 3x+ from this level rapidly, ether for smaller amounts to keep everything ticking over or enough to progress the mine entirely.

Maybe it’s all a long con, or maybe someone sees real value in the project and is finalising the funding. Who knows. It’s certainly been a frustrating long hold but I’ve got no intention of selling out on the cheap on days like today.