Member Info for StanleyUK

Bankrupty, you're coming across as flaky at best, attention-seeking at worst.

Trade if you want to trade, but posting positive then negative sentiment to support your position is just desparate.

Here's something to ponder over the weekend:

What are the directors doing in Mackay next week?

Who are they meeting?

What will the other party offer us?

Intriguing, right? - I wouldn't sell your core holding just yet...

It's a fair question, Brazilbumbum.

There is obvioulsy nothing official on this, but based on what we know right now I think we are looking at late '24 or early '25.

The Flotation + ATS or SO4 decision is imminent, and this will then allow us to determine whetehr the processing plant can be built on our own land, or whether we need to use the BLM land. Indications are that it is likely to be on our own patented land. This is a big plus.

Once finance lands we can begin can begin construction of the facilities without needing to wait for permitting. This could be as early as December, but possibly into Spring next year. In the meantime the Plan of Operation will be amended and submitted for permit approval. Note that the approval will be only to store the tailings on public land, rather than construction of facilities, access roads etc. It should hopefully be a quick turnaround.

The authorities wil l likely conduct a site visit in late summer next year, and there is likely to be a period of public consultation, but there has been significant work already undertaken for local engagement and other ESG related activities.

So let's say approval will come in late '24. Witht he facilities hopefully constructed by then, we can begin production within a matter of weeks / few months. Hiring should already have been in place, infrastructure ready, spades purchased and buckets at the ready.

This all relies on finace dropping, but as I have previously posted, this does not concern me at all, and I expect good news to drop very soon.

Nice analysis, Trek.

I honestly would not worry about the finances.

There are at least 3 options on the table but the company is still favouring Plan A, but should that fail then B and C can be put in place.

Plan A delivers all the money from a single (or consortium) investor, and rumours point to this coming from the Middle East which is a region not always straight-forward to deal with, but the company’s confidence remains high for this to complete.

The other options on the table might not lend the full amount on one hit, but will allow construction to begin and close out the Riverfort loan.

It may frustrate people, but time is still on our side.

The Floatation+ATS decision will likely come in the next 6-8 weeks, and then we redesign the pit plans, update the Plan of Operation, and submit the permit. Only once the POO is complete can we start to build the mine, so we’ve still got at least 3-4 months to complete the financing.

This then gives 6 months of construction before the BLM are likely to be on the ground to conduct site visits, as Idaho winters are very harsh. So permit approval won’t come until at least H2-24.

But once the permit lands we can can hit the ground running as most construction will be complete or progressing well. This, of course, depends on whether we really can build the site on our own land via the floatation tanks, but the Company have indicated this is the case.

The last time I spoke to one of the directors I was told “the money will be there for when Ryan needs it”.

I honestly don’t think we need to worry about if the money will land, but just focus on the when, and from whom.

Stan.

It’s an interesting post, ITD.

I’ve added a reply to it over on ADVFN, but would say that it’s speculative at best, but would love it to be true!

I’d say the Bond is indeed very close, the M&A is a possibility but maybe not a priority, and ExGen and ATS is purely guesswork.

But lets see what the next few weeks hold.

Stan.

76p initial target is eminently possible on full bond subscription. Save for the permit, the bond is the key that unlocks the treasure chest.

The Annual Report is overdue, and I’m hopeful this is in expectation of at least part-finalising the subscription.

They should know enough about the ATS to give initial indication of efficacy now, and again, I believe the results will be positive, which should significantly increase annual revenues.

The company must be juggling a number of balls in less than perfect circumstances, but we are now firmly in the window of exciting and positive news flow.

I’m guessing Annual Report tomorrow or Thursday.

Stan.

I also picked up another 40k shares at around 22.75p.

I’m expecting the Year End report to come out around May 22nd, so maybe another week of the share price in the doldrums.

If so, I’d guess the AGM will be somewhere around 5-9th June. Hopefully it will be a celebration rather than a castigation.

Stan.

The investment case in copper is clear, and indeed I believe the same for Phoenix.
This article mentions the pressure on ESG, too, which highlights the significance of the DigBee ‘A’ rating the company has achieved.

Once finance drops the buying pressure here will be huge. The share price moves fast in both directions on very little trading, and the food will be blown off when investors scramble to pick up whatever stock is available, and there won’t be much.

With the copper shortage it’s not unrealistic to expect $4.80-5.00/lb in the coming months, which makes the bond very attractive and offer a rate of 10%+. I can’t see how this doesn’t attract investment.

Let’s hope news arrives soon, and we can put this daft share price behind us.

Stan.

I think we should give them the benefit of the doubt this side of the AGM.
If things aren’t in place by the end of May I agree it’s time to be concerned, but they have enough options on the table to get finance away. The bond is clearly the preferred route, but more traditional financing is also a possibility.

As for the silence, there’s not much they can say until financing is concluded. Once it is I expect the news floodgates to open.

Just a little more patience required.

Chid, I’m guessing your post was aimed at my comments.
I’m happy to discuss the info offline if you want to post contact details.

Best,
Stan.

Cliff,

From what I understand the Cornerstone investor(s) are plan A, but there are other interested parties Stateside, and the amended Bond terms were added to accommodate them potentially signing. The DigBee accreditation would be particularly useful for such investors.

It’s not been the best of days, that’s for sure.
But for what it’s worth, I understand that the cornerstone investor is still looking to subscribe to the full $80m bond.
Word is that it’s a group of investors coming together as one, and there have been a few issues with one of the group.
They required the use of EuroClear, and this took far longer to set up than expected. Secondary, one of the Swiss banks was involved in part of the process and the investor is now waiting on amended routing instruction.

Paul has stated on Telegram the board is still very confident that this will happen, as am I, but none of this means anything until the paperwork arrives.

Take from the above what you will.

I’ve topped up too.
This drop is just daft. Ok, timelines have slipped based on the recent corporate presentation, but there are still interested parties.
The loan will cost us $80k and the Board are confident this will be settled within the 3 month term.

The warrants will bring in £840k, and dilute us by 1.6%. Not the end of the world. But yes, kind of against the “no dilution” mantra.

The DigBee ‘A’ rating is excellent and will ease permitting and attract other investors. There’s not many miners getting an A.

The terms of the bond are broadly the same, and if copper rises as expected then it would be the copper-linked price that applies anyway. Good for all of us.

I think people have overreacted to a perceived delay. I’m sure the picture will look different by the time the AGM is here.

Stan.

I don’t.
And Paul has indicated on Telegram the same.

What I think may have had an effect though is the interest rate rises. The Board indicated a base rate of 8.5%, but it’s possible the cornerstone investor has looked to squeeze us on that over the last few months, given the changing landscape.
I’m sure the bond will happen, but maybe with a slightly higher floor rate, and tweaked ratchets linked to the copper price.

Time will tell.

These are fantastic numbers.
Remember, this is for the open pit. Shallow, easily accessible, cheap to extract.
It also gives indication of the riches that may await us deeper down.

The 12% grade is obviously exciting to see, but even the lower grades are exciting bearing in mind that the average grade from all mining today is about 0.5%.

Sure we need the finance and other regulatory steps in place to get this out, but if you believe that it’s going to happen then yesterdays fall is just a gift.

Stan.

We all have our own strategies, and I have no doubt that Trek will have played it well.
I did play the other side today though, and picked up another 60k shares for my core holding.
It might drip lower, it might bounce, but long term these should represent a bargain.

The wait for news is frustrating, but news will come. Paul has suggested a general corporate update shortly, so hopefully we get clarity of the way ahead.

However you play the market, good luck out there.

Stan.

Oh, the Empire bit is at 50m25s. That will save you watching 6 hours of meeting!

There's nothing new in this, but Empire was briefly mentioned during the last BLM Resource Advisory Committee meeting in October last year (I have only just found the vid). It shows the split of land between BLM, USFS, and pivately held., and loosely talks of the process.

https://youtu.be/VDxmgWid0fQ

As the only mining project mentioned in Idaho it does show the importance of Empire, and getting it back up and running.
The presenter did mention the await the Plan of Operation (which we know), and that after they have accepted the plan, there would be a period of public consultation. I understand that this is a minimum of 30 days (but no maximum stated in the CFR regulations).
The end of '23 or early '24 is still achieveable anyway. Finance in the next few weeks will move us along nicely.

My comfort level is as high as ever.
The company may have been quiet, but they have been busy. Everything from bond negotiation, state-level engagement in Idaho, ATS, public relations, Red Star drilling, prep for Navarre, recruitment, and no doubt a degree of initial redesign for the facilities based on initial ATS feedback.

We are about to go from 0-100 with news flow, and each RNS should be a big one.
The likely order (IMO) being Finance > ATS > Red Star / sulphide results > a left field announcement (M&A somewhere?) > Pit design > Permit amendment for ATS > Navarre drilling commencement and results > Pre-Permit Activity at Empire > Permit approval > initial production.

This should all be within the next 12 months.
If this isn’t £1.20+ by Christmas I’d be gobsmacked.

Stan.

The Company does seem upbeat on the finance. Paul has stated expectation of completion on here, Telegram, Twitter, and in the Proactive presentation, and even Ryan (who is notoriously cautious) mentioning it in the BlytheRay interview.
They must have a degree of confidence that it is imminent.

The new figure of $80m may be required for a number of reasons. It's possible the project startup costs have increased by 25% (everything has!), and so requires additoinal funds, but it could also be that they have a curveball they are about to throw us. My guess is a little of A, and a little of B.
As to what that curveball may be, I'm reading between the lines and probably coming to the wrong conclusion, but wouldn't be surprised to see it used for some opportunistic M&A....

Stan.

I agree, I hope it's not the full amount, and if it is then there's no early interest payment attached.
I just wanted to set expectation that it might nt be the full amount., and people freak out that it's only part of the funding required.

As for "have they done a deal....", I am of the opinion that this is indeed in the plans, and it could be something quite left-field.