Member Info for StanleyPro

"Any one brave enough to buy at these levels?"

Topped up on Friday close and 25% down on that batch already.

If I had 500m to spend, I would buy as many shares as I could at 5p and then lent the remaining 480m to bail Tullow out below the bond rate %. Company survives, can refinance the remaining debt, everyone's happy, the SP rockets on this game changing RNS and I make my money back in equity almost over night plus the loan.

Think about how crazy the current valuation is, I know it's on top of debt etc. etc but since the SP cannot be below zero and ~60% is held by IIs, for 20 million you can scoop up all free floating shares. :)

They are not going to sell Ghana assets, please stop spreading panic. There's already plenty of oil on fire.

Yes, maybe if they strike oil near Argentina next week :)

Let's finish the day on a positive note:

1) TLW is still trading and we still have many trading days until May 26

2) The SP tanked further after the bell and my speculative buy executed part of the UT

3) The second producer well may deliver and if we're lucky with the third well at the beginning of next year then TLW gets much needed cash flow

@Redheadedrager the wipeout already happened. What everyone is worried about today is can the SP recover from a deep knockdown if market conditions improve and if the execs can still fight (take a hawkish stance on debt restructuring). Only insiders would know where Tullow is in the 10-count.

@DestituteBroker there have been other examples, e.g. the likes of Cineworld (restructuring and delisting) where the shareholders did not even get 1%. If I was the CFO of Tullow, I would try to draw up a plan and diversify the debt as much as possible, i.e. part through tender offer, part through buy back from market, part loans, part extensions on our terms, chaise Ghana for payments, they need to be told explicitly that those are vital in order to avoid collapse of the business, maybe even asking for payments up front in 2026.

"in dire straits" is new

D4E is not happening - debt holders wouldn't want equity, they would ask for more favourable terms on top of 10.25% and with declining production Tullow is giving in to the lenders. Ghana not paying for gas makes things even more difficult during the most challenging times for Tullow. The real danger is that there could be nothing left for us, if Tullow fails to find any clever ways to refinance its 26 bonds.

It won't take years for Tullow to benefit, as soon as FDP is ratified we get $40 million. This will make it $80 million from Kenya this year alone, which is absolutely remarkable given a decade of liability on the balance sheet. We need to focus on the near-term and Tullow cannot indefinitely remain cash cow for the lenders. I would like to see bonds buy back with this 40 million.

Heading back down to 500 by the looks of it

Various news outlets also suggest that the FDP has been approved awaiting to be ratified by the Kenyan parliament.

For us it's more important whether or not the FDP gets approved by 31 December. Then we instantly get the second tranche. Would be really good to see bonds buy-back from the market and not via offer, even a small portion will send a positive message to equity holders. Potential savings are massive, at least 50-60%.

Looks like short positions have increased, could be those big sells.

It's the worst time for takeovers for LTHs, the SP is all time low and has stayed low since August. TLW has reduced its debt a lot over the last 5 years so there's definitely progress, the second well is coming online before the end of the year. Also, KOS have reported that the first well drilled in June has delivered around 10,000 bopd in Q3. TEN hasn't declined much this year and has potential. Tullow needs a bit of luck with oil prices and with increasing production in the next 6 months.

The SP will probably drift lower on no news because risk increases as we get closer to the expiration date in May. If they manage to refinance then the SP will depend on the deal we get. On one hand, if the bond holders agree an extension (at least for some portion) it could be better than refinancing the entire amount. On the other hand, these coupons are already 10.25% which is a huge yield. Can they do better in the current market with a 4% BoE rate? I'm hoping it wouldn't be much worse than 10%, to be honest even 10.25 proved to be unsustainable.

"Just cashed out - got in yesterday at 8.9 and just sold at avg of 10.2 so a nice profit."

We're here for 90p, not 1p.

If 2026 bonds drift further down, Tullow should just take a loan and buy the debt back aggressively. It would be a lot better than repaying 45-50% p.a and they can cut the debt to below 1bn.

Topped up this morning, way too cheap to ignore. I've looked at major house builders but MSLH looks better on paper.