Member Info for StanleyPro

Hi @J.Bond, I agree that they have to find a way to reduce interest payments. I could never understand why they haven't tried to reduce debt by buying some portion of the coupons directly from the market at a heavily discounted price! Could be that it's not seen as a good move and impacts company's credit rating or it could be that RM thinks they won't be able to buy many from free float at 70%. If your time line is couple of years 300m buys you almost double in debt, the rest held by IIs can be extended with payments that TLW will be able to afford.

"Even with new wells coming online TLW have stated that the low end of oil production is 27 bopd."

This was without information on the new well. Jubilee has started the year @ 70k bopd, factoring in 5% quarterly decline and assuming that TEN remains steady, we will exceed 30k bopd and be closer to the upper end of guidance.

Profit meets expectations yet the stock gets hammered again, trading at pathetic valuations.

A kindergarten level fortune-hunter?

Well, Ghana paid ENI and other partners at the end of 2025 but from this statement it seems that we're still waiting in line. No wonder why the IR has been so quiet.

"The government has also renegotiated all agreements with independent power producers ​and is working with Tullow Oil and Jubilee Field ⁠partners on a payment roadmap, the ministry said."

Guys when is January's RNS?

Indeed. How do you track cargo data? Not good if below 60 for December...

@xxnjr that's the gross quantity delivered, all parties are paid for deliveries not for oil flow rate. Here where it gets interesting: 3 liftings were recorded in January with gross 2,870,192 bbl, while production only averaged 77,356 bopd for the same month. It's not hard to see that almost a third was produced in December 2024, yet it was delivered and sold in 2025. Hopefully, J73-P well will help towards January 26 production figures.

Petroleum Commission numbers show liftings around 07 and 23 of each month, 953k bbl lifted on average (2 tankers) in November which is over 60 kbopd.

Good close today, firmly over 6p. It's not unreasonable to expect the gap at 8p to be closed anytime soon. Looking forward to January's RNS, especially with regards to the 2nd well and FDP ratification. Refinancing is the elephant in the room but a hint of preliminary agreement will lift the share price.

"numbers are from ChatGPT"

Well, there's your problem. Instead of challenging ChatGPT you just post it here. First, you need to get your basics right, e.g. by at least checking the issue / circulation volume of the 21/26 bonds. If you start from wrong initial conditions you'll come to the wrong conclusion.

@Googoosh you've got almost every number wrong in your first post in this thread

Light sweet offshore Ghana

They don't need to address the SP collapse because equity is not part of refinancing options. They won't be "restructuring at the expense of SP" either because they will lose most benefits of a PLC. For example, after they put Tullow on strong financial footing equity will become valuable which unlocks the option of raising funds from the shareholders.

The only problem is that there's no equity to swap. Come on guys, please tell me these are paid bots or does anyone seriously think debt holders want tullow shares in this market?

Now is their best chance to utilise peanuts from Kenya.

Trading at their lowest point since issue, would like to hear your opinion on potential buyback from the market using money from Kenya?

Currently $40ml buys approximately 3% of bonds and if the price remains below 75 for the second tranche they can potentially reduce the total debt by 6% with just $80ml.

Where have you read that?

Glencore could steal the spotlight in Tullow's debt drama

https://www.ft.com/content/e2ce9ea2-889e-45fe-b4fd-058feda2fbee

They were never great at saying something but since the storm has now reached the bonds it's perfect time to utilise 40 mil. from Kenya, all imv.